Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This paper is devoted to the study of the peristaltic transport of viscoelastic non-Newtonian fluids with fractional Maxwell model in an inclined channel. Approximate analytical solutions have been constructed using Adomain decomposition method under the assumption of long wave boundary layer type approximation and low Reynolds number. The effect of each of relaxation time, fractional parameters, Reynolds number, Froude number, inclination of channel and amplitude on the pressure difference, friction force and stream function along one wavelength are received and analyzed.
Surveillance cameras are video cameras used for the purpose of observing an area. They are often connected to a recording device or IP network, and may be watched by a security guard or law enforcement officer. In case of location have less percentage of movement (like home courtyard during night); then we need to check whole recorded video to show where and when that motion occur which are wasting in time. So this paper aims at processing the real time video captured by a Webcam to detect motion in the Scene using MATLAB 2012a, with keeping in mind that camera still recorded which means real time detection. The results show accuracy and efficiency in detecting motion
Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.
The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa
... Show MoreThe dramatic decrease in the cost of genome sequencing over the last two decades has led to an abundance of genomic data. This data has been used in research related to the discovery of genetic diseases and the production of medicines. At the same time, the huge space for storing the genome (2–3 GB) has led to it being considered one of the most important sources of big data, which has prompted research centers concerned with genetic research to take advantage of the cloud and its services in storing and managing this data. The cloud is a shared storage environment, which makes data stored in it vulnerable to unwanted tampering or disclosure. This leads to serious concerns about securing such data from tampering and unauthoriz
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid approach for solving null values problem; it hybridizes rough set theory with intelligent swarm algorithm. The proposed approach is a supervised learning model. A large set of complete data called learning data is used to find the decision rule sets that then have been used in solving the incomplete data problem. The intelligent swarm algorithm is used for feature selection which represents bees algorithm as heuristic search algorithm combined with rough set theory as evaluation function. Also another feature selection algorithm called ID3 is presented, it works as statistical algorithm instead of intelligent algorithm. A comparison between those two approaches is made in their performance for null values estima
... Show MoreThe achievements of the art that we know today are questioned in motives that differ from what art knew before, including dramatic artistic transformations, which he called modern art.
In view of the enormity of such a topic, its ramifications and its complexity, it was necessary to confine its subject to the origin of the motives of the transformations of its first pioneers, and then to stand on what resulted from that of the data of vision in composition and drawing exclusively, and through exploration in that, we got to know the vitality of change from the art of its time.
And by examining the ruling contemporary philosophical concepts and their new standards and their epistemological role in contemporary life, since they includ
This paper describes the use of microcomputer as a laboratory instrument system. The system is focused on three weather variables measurement, are temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. This instrument is a type of data acquisition system; in this paper we deal with the design and implementation of data acquisition system based on personal computer (Pentium) using Industry Standard Architecture (ISA)bus. The design of this system involves mainly a hardware implementation, and the software programs that are used for testing, measuring and control. The system can be used to display the required information that can be transferred and processed from the external field to the system. A visual basic language with Microsoft foundation cl
... Show MoreIn this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which has
... Show MoreThis work presents an analytical study for simulating a Fabry-Perot Bi-stable etalon (F-P cavity) filled with a dispersive optimized nonlinear optical material (Kerr type) such as semiconductors Indium Antimonite (InSb). Depending on the obtained results and because of a trade-off between the optical path length of the sample and active cavity lifetime, an optimization procedure was applied on the InSb etalon/CO laser parameters; critical switching irradiance (Ic) was applied via simulation systems of optimization procedures of optical cavity (Matlap program was used to study the optical Bi-stability of a nonlinear Fabry-Perot cavity). In order to achieve minimum switching power and faster switching time, the optimizatio
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