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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Sum Rate Maximization Versus MSE Minimization in FDD Massive MIMO Systems With Short Coherence Time
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Ieee Transactions On Human-machine Systems
Myoelectric Control With Fixed Convolution-Based Time-Domain Feature Extraction: Exploring the Spatio–Temporal Interaction
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Mathematical Modeling and Kinetics of Removing Metal Ions from Industrial Wastewater
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The study's objective is to produce Nano Graphene Oxide (GO) before using it for batch adsorption to remove heavy metals (Cadmium Cd+2, Nickel Ni+2, and Vanadium V+5) ions from industrial wastewater. The temperature effect (20-50) °C and initial concentration effect (100-800) mg L-1 on the adsorption process were studied. A simulation aqueous solution of the ions was used to identify the adsorption isotherms, and after the experimental data was collected, the sorption process was studied kinetically and thermodynamically. The Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin isotherm models were used to fit the data. The results showed that Cd, Ni, and V ions on the GO adsorbing surface matched the Langmuir model with correlation coefficients (R2)

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Publication Date
Tue May 10 2022
Journal Name
European Scholar Journal (esj)
MODELING AND COMPARISON OF CLOSED-LOOP AND OPENLOOP ADAPTIVE OPTICS SYSTEMS
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Astronomers have known since the invention of the telescope that atmospheric turbulence affects celestial images. So, in order to compensate for the atmospheric aberrations of the observed wavefront, an Adaptive Optics (AO) system has been introduced. The AO can be arranged into two systems: closedloop and open-loop systems. The aim of this paper is to model and compare the performance of both AO loop systems by using one of the most recent Adaptive Optics simulation tools, the Objected-Oriented Matlab Adaptive Optics (OOMAO). Then assess the performance of closed and open loop systems by their capabilities to compensate for wavefront aberrations and improve image quality, also their effect by the observed optical bands (near-infrared band

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 23 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison Between Deterministic and Stochastic Model for Interaction (COVID-19) With Host Cells in Humans
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In this paper, the deterministic and the stochastic models are proposed to study the interaction of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) with host cells inside the human body. In the deterministic model, the value of the basic reproduction number   determines the persistence or extinction of the COVID-19. If   , one infected cell will transmit the virus to less than one cell, as a result,  the person carrying the Coronavirus will get rid of the disease .If   the infected cell  will be able to infect  all  cells that contain ACE receptors. The stochastic model proves that if  are sufficiently large then maybe  give  us ultimate disease extinction although ,  and this  facts also proved by computer simulation.

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Publication Date
Wed May 08 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And Computer Science
How does media coverage affect a COVID-19 pandemic model with direct and indirect transmission?
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In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which

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Publication Date
Sun May 17 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Minimizing the Total Completion Time and Total Earliness Time Functions for a Machine Scheduling Problem Using Local Search Methods
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In this paper we investigate the use of two types of local search methods (LSM), the Simulated Annealing (SA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to solve the problems ( ) and . The results of the two LSMs are compared with the Branch and Bound method and good heuristic methods. This work shows the good performance of SA and PSO compared with the exact and heuristic methods in terms of best solutions and CPU time.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Forecasting the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using Markov chains
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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Clinical And Experimental Dental Research
Atypical clinical features of post COVID‐19 mucormycosis: A case series
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Abstract<sec><title>Objectives

This case series aims to evaluate patients affected with post COVID‐19 mucormycosis from clinical presentation to surgical and pharmacological treatment to improve the disease prognosis.

Material and Methods

This case series was conducted at a specialized surgery hospital in Baghdad Medical City for over 10 months. Fifteen cases who had mild to severe COVID‐19 infections followed by symptoms similar to aggressive periodontitis, such as mobility and bone resorption around the multiple maxillary teeth, were included in this case series.

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