Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The study's objective is to produce Nano Graphene Oxide (GO) before using it for batch adsorption to remove heavy metals (Cadmium Cd+2, Nickel Ni+2, and Vanadium V+5) ions from industrial wastewater. The temperature effect (20-50) °C and initial concentration effect (100-800) mg L-1 on the adsorption process were studied. A simulation aqueous solution of the ions was used to identify the adsorption isotherms, and after the experimental data was collected, the sorption process was studied kinetically and thermodynamically. The Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin isotherm models were used to fit the data. The results showed that Cd, Ni, and V ions on the GO adsorbing surface matched the Langmuir model with correlation coefficients (R2)
... Show MoreAstronomers have known since the invention of the telescope that atmospheric turbulence affects celestial images. So, in order to compensate for the atmospheric aberrations of the observed wavefront, an Adaptive Optics (AO) system has been introduced. The AO can be arranged into two systems: closedloop and open-loop systems. The aim of this paper is to model and compare the performance of both AO loop systems by using one of the most recent Adaptive Optics simulation tools, the Objected-Oriented Matlab Adaptive Optics (OOMAO). Then assess the performance of closed and open loop systems by their capabilities to compensate for wavefront aberrations and improve image quality, also their effect by the observed optical bands (near-infrared band
... Show MoreIn this paper, the deterministic and the stochastic models are proposed to study the interaction of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) with host cells inside the human body. In the deterministic model, the value of the basic reproduction number determines the persistence or extinction of the COVID-19. If , one infected cell will transmit the virus to less than one cell, as a result, the person carrying the Coronavirus will get rid of the disease .If the infected cell will be able to infect all cells that contain ACE receptors. The stochastic model proves that if are sufficiently large then maybe give us ultimate disease extinction although , and this facts also proved by computer simulation.
In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which
... Show MoreIn this paper we investigate the use of two types of local search methods (LSM), the Simulated Annealing (SA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to solve the problems ( ) and . The results of the two LSMs are compared with the Branch and Bound method and good heuristic methods. This work shows the good performance of SA and PSO compared with the exact and heuristic methods in terms of best solutions and CPU time.
The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
... Show MoreThis case series aims to evaluate patients affected with post COVID‐19 mucormycosis from clinical presentation to surgical and pharmacological treatment to improve the disease prognosis.
This case series was conducted at a specialized surgery hospital in Baghdad Medical City for over 10 months. Fifteen cases who had mild to severe COVID‐19 infections followed by symptoms similar to aggressive periodontitis, such as mobility and bone resorption around the multiple maxillary teeth, were included in this case series.