Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.
The present work included study of the effects of weather conditions such as solar radiation and ambient temperature on solar panels (monocrystalline 30 Watts) via proposed mathematical model, MATLAB_Simulation was used by scripts file to create a special code to solve the mathematical model , The latter is single –diode model (Five parameter) ,Where the effect of ambient temperature and solar radiation on the output of the solar panel was studied, the Newton Raphson method was used to find the output current of the solar panel and plot P-V ,I-V curves, the performance of the PV was determined at Standard Test Condition (STC) (1000W/m2)and a comparison between theoretical and experimental results were done .The best efficiency
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The research aims to monitor the image of the man in the group (The Cart and the Rain) by the storyteller (Badiaa Amin); With the aim of highlighting an aspect of feminist writing, especially with regard to the relationship of women to men, and determining the form adopted by the storyteller in drawing the features of men.
The research used the descriptive-analytical method in the space of its textual formation, which aims to stand on the text and deconstruct its narrative significance. To provide a comprehensive picture of it.
Three images of the man appeared in the group's stories, represented by (the authoritarian, the negative, and the positive), and the image of the authoritarian ma
... Show MorePrediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bay
... Show MoreIn this research Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied to study the filtration process in water treatment. Eight models have been developed and tested using data from a pilot filtration plant, working under different process design criteria; influent turbidity, bed depth, grain size, filtration rate and running time (length of the filtration run), recording effluent turbidity and head losses. The ANN models were constructed for the prediction of different performance criteria in the filtration process: effluent turbidity, head losses and running time. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use artificial neural networks in predicting effluent turbidity, head losses and running time in the filtration process, wi
... Show MoreThe estimation of the regular regression model requires several assumptions to be satisfied such as "linearity". One problem occurs by partitioning the regression curve into two (or more) parts and then joining them by threshold point(s). This situation is regarded as a linearity violation of regression. Therefore, the multiphase regression model is received increasing attention as an alternative approach which describes the changing of the behavior of the phenomenon through threshold point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator "MLE" has been used in both model and threshold point estimations. However, MLE is not resistant against violations such as outliers' existence or in case of the heavy-tailed error distribution. The main goal of t
... Show MoreIn the current paper, the effect of fear in three species Beddington–DeAngelis food chain model is investigated. A three species food chain model incorporating Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed, where the growth rate in the first and second level decreases due to existence of predator in the upper level. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are studied. All the possible equilibrium points are determined. The local as well as global stability of the system are investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The local bifurcation analysis of the system is carried out. Finally, numerical simulations are used t
Detection moving car in front view is difficult operation because of the dynamic background due to the movement of moving car and the complex environment that surround the car, to solve that, this paper proposed new method based on linear equation to determine the region of interest by building more effective background model to deal with dynamic background scenes. This method exploited the permitted region between cars according to traffic law to determine the region (road) that in front the moving car which the moving cars move on. The experimental results show that the proposed method can define the region that represents the lane in front of moving car successfully with precision over 94%and detection rate 86
... Show MoreThis paper includes an experimental study of hydrogen mass flow rate and inlet hydrogen pressure effect on the fuel cell performance. Depending on the experimental results, a model of fuel cell based on artificial neural networks is proposed. A back propagation learning rule with the log-sigmoid activation function is adopted to construct neural networks model. Experimental data resulting from 36 fuel cell tests are used as a learning data. The hydrogen mass flow rate, applied load and inlet hydrogen pressure are inputs to fuel cell model, while the current and voltage are outputs. Proposed model could successfully predict the fuel cell performance in good agreement with actual data. This work is extended to developed fuel cell feedback
... Show MoreThe current research sheds light on an important aspect of the great and rapid development in the field of science and technology and modern manufacturing methods as a result of the scientific revolution resulting from the accelerated cognitive development, which prompted designers in general and interior design in particular to exploit and invest in digital technology and the development of digital control in the process of designing the industrial product for the purpose of creativity and innovation through these digital programs Digital models achieve the requirements and desires of the interior designer according to the creative skill using modern software with high efficiency And extreme accuracy that is consistent with the requirem
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