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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Yearly Energy, Exergy, and Environmental (3E) Analyses of A Photovoltaic Thermal Module and Solar Thermal Collector in Series
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The annual performance of a hybrid system of a flat plate photovoltaic thermal system and a solar thermal collector (PVT/ST) is numerically analyzed from the energy, exergy, and environmental (CO2 reduction) viewpoints. This system can produce electricity and thermal power simultaneously, with higher thermal power and exergy compared to conventional photovoltaic thermal systems. For this purpose, a 3D transient numerical model is developed for investigating the system's performance in four main steps: (1) investigating the effects of the mass flow rate of the working fluid (20 to 50 kg/h) on the temperature behavior and thermodynamic performance of the system, (2) studying the impacts of using glass covers on the different parts of the s

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Applied Mathematics
The Dynamics of a Delayed Ecoepidemiological Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate
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In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Global Stability of an epidemic model with vaccine involving stage structure
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In this paper a mathematical model that analytically as well as numerically
the flow of infection disease in a population is proposed and studied. It is
assumed that the disease divided the population into five classes: immature
susceptible individuals (S1) , mature individuals (S2 ) , infectious individual
(I ), removal individuals (R) and vaccine population (V) . The existence,
uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The
local and global stability of the model is studied. Finally the global dynamics of
the proposed model is studied numerically.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 13 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of RIPng, EIGRPv6 and OSPFv3 for Real Time Applications
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In this modern Internet era and the transition to IPv6, routing protocols must adjust to assist this transformation. RIPng, EIGRPv6 and OSPFv3 are the dominant IPv6 IGRP (Interior Gateway Routing Protocols). Selecting the best routing protocol among the available is a critical task, which depends upon the network requirement and performance parameters of different real time applications. The primary motivation of this paper is to estimate the performance of these protocols in real time applications. The evaluation is based on a number of criteria including:  network convergence duration, Http Page Response Time, DB Query Response Time, IPv6 traffic dropped, video packet delay variation and video packet end to end de

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modeling of Electron and Lattice Temperature Distribution Through Lifetime of Plasma Plume
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When employing shorter (sub picosecond) laser pulses, in ablation kinetics the features appear which can no longer be described in the context of the conventional thermal model. Meanwhile, the ablation of materials with the aid of ultra-short (sub picosecond) laser pulses is applied for micromechanical processing. Physical mechanisms and theoretical models of laser ablation are discussed. Typical associated phenomena are qualitatively regarded and methods for studying them quantitatively are considered. Calculated results relevant to ablation kinetics for a number of substances are presented and compared with experimental data. Ultra-short laser ablation with two-temperature model was quantitatively investigated. A two-temperature model

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Computers And Electronics In Agriculture
Meteorological data mining and hybrid data-intelligence models for reference evaporation simulation: A case study in Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Finite Difference Methods,theory And Applications
Determination of the Time-Dependent Thermal Conductivity in the Heat Equation with Spacewise Dependent Heat Capacity
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Significance of Salivary miRNA 21 Determined by Real Time PCR in Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma
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Background: Salivary biomarkers, a non-invasive alternative method to serum and tissue based biomarkers and it is consider as an effective modality for early diagnosis. Salivary microRNA 21, a nucleotide biomarker, was reported to increase in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma. This study was conducted to measure the fold change of microRNA 21 in stimulated saliva and to study its association with smoking and occurrence of oral squamous cell carcinoma. Materials and methods: A 20 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma who used to be smokers was included in addition to 40 control subjects (20 smokers and 20 non- smokers health looking subjects). Stimulated saliva was collected under standardized condition. Salivary microRNA 21 wa

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
On modelling and adaptive control of a linear smart beam model interacting with fluid
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Abstract<p>This paper deals with modelling and control of Euler-Bernoulli smart beam interacting with a fluid medium. Several distributed piezo-patches (actuators and/or sensors) are bonded on the surface of the target beam. To model the vibrating beam properly, the effect of the piezo-patches and the hydrodynamic loads should be taken into account carefully. The partial differential equation PDE for the target oscillating beam is derived considering the piezo-actuators as input controls. Fluid forces are decomposed into two components: 1) hydrodynamic forces due to the beam oscillations, and 2) external (disturbance) hydrodynamic loads independent of beam motion. Then the PDE is discretized usi</p> ... Show More
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