Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Taking into account the significance of food chains in the environment, it demonstrates the interdependence of all living things and has economic implications for people. Hunting cooperation, fear, and intraspecific competition are all included in a food chain model that has been developed and researched. The study tries to comprehend how these elements affect the behavior of species along the food chain. We first examined the suggested model's solution properties before calculating every potential equilibrium point and examining the stability and bifurcation nearby. We have identified the factors that guarantee the global stability of the positive equilibrium point using the geometric approach. Additionally, the circumstances that would gu
... Show Morestudy aimed to recognize The relationship between Intrinsic Motivation Academy and Time Management among University students and measure Intrinsic Motivation Academy And Time Management for sample and Balancing Degrees of Basic Research on the two scales According to the Variable genders and Specialization, The sample consisted (350) students by (230) female (120) male , and the sample responded scales of Intrinsic Motivation Academy for (Alwan & Attaat2009) and Time Management (Building tool), The Results of this study show that: There are statistically significant differences according to gender variable in Intrinsic Motivation Academy and Time Management in favor of the male, and there are statistica
... Show MoreFine art represents part of society's culture. The development of art was accompanied by the penetration of new worlds known as the fourth dimension. After art entered the boundaries of geometry and reduction; He began to break into the absurd, and the form and philosophy of art changed, moving from modernity to what came after it to contemporary. Transforming from a formal form into a symbolic form with philosophical implications linked to the light, audio and kinetic effects as they embody time, the concept became the master of the idea. The research aims to identify the concept of time and its types, then the philosophical concept of time and its reflection on contemporary art, through the analytical study of a selection of contempora
... Show MoreIntroduction: Nitrofurantoin (NFT) is abroad spectrum bactericidal antibiotic. The bioavailability of NFT is affected by many factors. Samafurantin® tablets containing 50 mg NFT were manufactured by Samarra drug industry. Urinary excretion studies were employed since; the urinary tract is the main site of NFT action and excretion. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the effect of Uricol® and food on secondary pharmacokinetic parameters of Samafurantin® tablets with different doses by applying urinary data. Methods: Twelve healthy male volunteers participated in this study. Urine samples were collected from each volunteer after overnight fasting at a specified time intervals which considered as a blank sample for meas
... Show MoreAir pollution refers to the release of pollutants into the air that are detrimental to human health and the planet as a whole.In this research, the air pollutants concentration measurements such as Total Suspended Particles(TSP), Carbon Monoxides(CO),Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and meteorological parameters including temperature (T), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed & direction were conducted in Baghdad city by several stations measuring numbered (22) stations located in different regions, and were classified into (industrial, commercial and residential) stations. Using Arc-GIS program ( spatial Analyses), different maps have been prepared for the distribution of different pollutant
It is commonly known that Euler-Bernoulli’s thin beam theorem is not applicable whenever a nonlinear distribution of strain/stress occurs, such as in deep beams, or the stress distribution is discontinuous. In order to design the members experiencing such distorted stress regions, the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM) could be utilized. In this paper, experimental investigation of STM technique for three identical small-scale deep beams was conducted. The beams were simply supported and loaded statically with a concentrated load at the mid span of the beams. These deep beams had two symmetrical openings near the application point of loading. Both the deep beam, where the stress distribution cannot be assumed linear, and the ex
... Show MoreThis study aim to identify the concept of web based information systems since its one of the important topics that is usually omitted by our organizations, in addition to, designing a web based information system in order to manage the customers data of Al- Rasheed bank, as a unified information system that is specialized to the banking deals of the customers with the bank, and providing a suggested model to apply the virtual private network as a tool that is to protect the transmitted data through the web based information system.
This study is considered important because it deals with one of the vital topics nowadays, namely: how to make it possible to use a distributed informat
... Show MoreHydro cracking of heavy oil is used in refinery to produce invaluable products. In this research, a model of hydro cracking reactor has been used to study the behavior of heavy oil in hydro cracking under the conditions recommended by literature in terms lumping of feed and products. The lumping scheme is based on five lumps include: heavy oil, vacuum oil, distillates, naphtha and gases. The first order kinetics was assumed for the conversion in the model and the system is modeled as an isothermal tubular reactor. MATLAB 6.1 was used to solve the model for a five lump scheme for different values of feed velocity, and temperature.
DBNRAHA Hameed, IJRSSH PUBLICATION, 2018