Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This paper deals with constructing a model of fuzzy linear programming with application on fuels product of Dura- refinery , which consist of seven products that have direct effect ondaily consumption . After Building the model which consist of objective function represents the selling prices ofthe products and fuzzy productions constraints and fuzzy demand constraints addition to production requirements constraints , we used program of ( WIN QSB ) to find the optimal solution
In this paper two modifications on Kuznetsov model namely on growth rate law and fractional cell kill term are given. Laplace Adomian decomposition method is used to get the solution (volume of the tumor) as a function of time .Stability analysis is applied. For lung cancer the tumor will continue in growing in spite of the treatment.
In this paper, a discretization of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model has been investigated with Holling type III functional response. All its fixed points are determined; also, their local stability is investigated. We extend the discretized system to an optimal control problem to get the optimal harvesting amount. For this, the discrete-time Pontryagin’s maximum principle is used. Finally, numerical simulation results are given to confirm the theoretical outputs as well as to solve the optimality problem.
In this work ,porous silicon(PS) substrate has been used to fabricate a sensor of structures(Al/n PSi/n-Si/Al) using infrared laser in a assisting Etching process at several times (8,16,and24 min) and current density(J) of about(25mA/cm2) on silicon(Si) substrates type of n and tested for CO2 gas molecules and then modulated using MATLAB program. J-V characteristic was analyzed. Different parameter determine such as, Porosity (%), Layer thickness (%) and relative permittivity of the fabricated PS substrate. Several shape and sizes of pores were obtained from the scanning electron microscope device such as pore, rectangular and cylindrical structure for infrared illuminated (IR). The Porosity (%) and Layer thickness (%) take control on se
... Show MoreIn this paper, mesoscale modeling is performed to simulate and understand fracture behavior of two concrete composites: cement and asphalt concrete using disk-shaped compact tension (DCT) tests. Mesoscale models are used as alternative to macroscale models to obtain better realistic behavior of composite and heterogeneous materials such as cement and asphalt concrete. In mesoscale models, aggregate and matrix are represented as distinct materials and each material has its characteristic properties. Disk-shaped compact tension test is used to obtain tensile strength and fracture energy of materials. This test can be used as a better alternative to other tests such as three points bending tests because it is more convenient for both field and
... Show MoreRumaila supergiant oilfield, located in Southern Iraq has a huge footprint and is considered as the second largest oilfield in the world. It contains many productive reservoirs, some known but without produced zones, and significant exploration potential. A fault divides the field into two domes to the north and south. Mishrif reservoir is the main producing reservoir in the North Rumaila oilfield. It has been producing for more than 40 years and is under depletion. However, it was subjected to water injection processes in 2015, which assisted in recovery and pressure support. Thus, requirements of managing flooding strategies and water-cut limitations are necessary in the next stages of the field life.
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... Show MoreIn this study, we set up and analyze a cancer growth model that integrates a chemotherapy drug with the impact of vitamins in boosting and strengthening the immune system. The aim of this study is to determine the minimal amount of treatment required to eliminate cancer, which will help to reduce harm to patients. It is assumed that vitamins come from organic foods and beverages. The chemotherapy drug is added to delay and eliminate tumor cell growth and division. To that end, we suggest the tumor-immune model, composed of the interaction of tumor and immune cells, which is composed of two ordinary differential equations. The model’s fundamental mathematical properties, such as positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium existence, are exami
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to find the best multiplier approximation of unbounded functions in –space by using some discrete linear positive operators. Also we will estimate the degree of the best multiplier approximation in term of modulus of continuity and the averaged modulus.
This paper presents an alternative method for developing effective embedded optimized Runge-Kutta (RK) algorithms to solve oscillatory problems numerically. The embedded scheme approach has algebraic orders of 5 and 4. By transforming second-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) into their first-order counterpart, the suggested approach solves first-order ODEs. The amplification error, phase-lag, and first derivative of the phase-lag are all nil in the embedded pair. The alternative method’s absolute stability is demonstrated. The numerical tests are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach in comparison to other RK approaches. The alternative approach outperforms the current RK methods
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