Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
ABSTRACT Background:- White spot lesions are common esthetic problem that compromise the success of orthodontic treatment. This study aimed to assess white spot lesions in patients with fixed orthodontic appliance at different time intervals. Materials & Methods:- Thirty two patients (24 females and 8 males) were included in this study and they underwent clinical examination for white spot lesions using enamel decalcification index at four time intervals: (2-3 weeks after appliance insertion, 2, 4 and 6 months). Results:- The patients were free of white spot lesions at the appliance insertion visit. The mean of white spot lesions was 2.22 which were increased significantly during six months to reach 24.59 at the end of study. There was a si
... Show MoreIn this paper, a discrete- time ratio-dependent prey- predator model is proposed and analyzed. All possible fixed points have been obtained. The local stability conditions for these fixed points have been established. The global stability of the proposed system is investigated numerically. Bifurcation diagrams as a function of growth rate of the prey species are drawn. It is observed that the proposed system has rich dynamics including chaos.
Iris research is focused on developing techniques for identifying and locating relevant biometric features, accurate segmentation and efficient computation while lending themselves to compression methods. Most iris segmentation methods are based on complex modelling of traits and characteristics which, in turn, reduce the effectiveness of the system being used as a real time system. This paper introduces a novel parameterized technique for iris segmentation. The method is based on a number of steps starting from converting grayscale eye image to a bit plane representation, selection of the most significant bit planes followed by a parameterization of the iris location resulting in an accurate segmentation of the iris from the origin
... Show MoreSome new 2,5-disubsituted-1,3,4-oxadiazole derivatives with azo group were synthesized by known reactions sequence . The structure of the synthesized compounds were confirmed by physical and spectral means .
Although language research has focused on blackmail in general, less attention has been paid to emotional blackmail. To date, researchers could not locate any literature that examines emotional blackmail from a linguistic standpoint. The current study is intended to fill this gap by scrutinizing emotional blackmail from a pragma-stylistic point of view by examining the style of the characters in selected episodes extracted from the American Breaking Bad series. To carry out the study, an eclectic model comprising kinds of emotional blackmailers by Forward and Frazier (1997), Searles’ speech acts (1979), Grice’s maxims (1975), Brown and Levinson’s politeness (1987), Culpeper’s impoliteness (1996), and Simpson’s stylistic le
... Show MoreBlockchain technology relies on cryptographic techniques that provide various advantages, such as trustworthiness, collaboration, organization, identification, integrity, and transparency. Meanwhile, data analytics refers to the process of utilizing techniques to analyze big data and comprehend the relationships between data points to draw meaningful conclusions. The field of data analytics in Blockchain is relatively new, and few studies have been conducted to examine the challenges involved in Blockchain data analytics. This article presents a systematic analysis of how data analytics affects Blockchain performance, with the aim of investigating the current state of Blockchain-based data analytics techniques in research fields and
... Show MoreThe general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models, and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time. The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculatin
... Show MoreIn this paper, a method for data encryption was proposed using two secret keys, where the first one is a matrix of XOR's and NOT's gates (XN key), whereas the second key is a binary matrix (KEYB) key. XN and KEYB are (m*n) matrices where m is equal to n. Furthermore this paper proposed a strategy to generate secret keys (KEYBs) using the concept of the LFSR method (Linear Feedback Shift Registers) depending on a secret start point (third secret key s-key). The proposed method will be named as X.K.N. (X.K.N) is a type of symmetric encryption and it will deal with the data as a set of blocks in its preprocessing and then encrypt the binary data in a case of stream cipher.
Thyroid disease is a common disease affecting millions worldwide. Early diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disease can help prevent more serious complications and improve long-term health outcomes. However, thyroid disease diagnosis can be challenging due to its variable symptoms and limited diagnostic tests. By processing enormous amounts of data and seeing trends that may not be immediately evident to human doctors, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms may be capable of increasing the accuracy with which thyroid disease is diagnosed. This study seeks to discover the most recent ML-based and data-driven developments and strategies for diagnosing thyroid disease while considering the challenges associated with imbalanced data in thyroid dise
... Show MoreIn this work, we consider a modification of the Lotka-Volterra food chain model of three species, each of them is growing logistically. We found that the model has eight equilibrium points, four of them always exist, while the rest exist under certain conditions. In terms of stability, we found that the system has five unstable equilibrium points, while the rest points are locally asymptotically stable under certain satisfying conditions. Finally, we provide an example to support the theoretical results.