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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
PROTOTYPING TO DESIGN AN ANAGLYPH 3D IMAGE BASED ON WATERFALL MODEL
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In this paper, a discussion of the principles of stereoscopy is presented, and the phases
of 3D image production of which is based on the Waterfall model. Also, the results are based
on one of the 3D technology which is Anaglyph and it's known to be of two colors (red and
cyan).
A 3D anaglyph image and visualization technologies will appear as a threedimensional
by using a classes (red/cyan) as considered part of other technologies used and
implemented for production of 3D videos (movies). And by using model to produce a
software to process anaglyph video, comes very important; for that, our proposed work is
implemented an anaglyph in Waterfall model to produced a 3D image which extracted from a
video.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Robust Estimations for power Spectrum in ARMA(1,1) Model Simulation Study
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Simulation Study

 

Abstract :

Robust statistics Known as, Resistance to mistakes resulting of the deviation of Check hypotheses of statistical properties ( Adjacent Unbiased  , The Efficiency of data taken from a wide range of probability distributions follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions with different standard deviations.

 power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. Measuring  its total capacity as frequency function.

Estimation methods Share with

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Suggested Model to audit the oil companies to achieve environmental control
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Oil sector is one of the most important sectors affecting the ecological balance, as activity contributes to the oil companies to influence their working environment, both during the oil exploration and extraction process or during transfer from one place to another process. We will try through this research put an environmental audit program proposal takes into account all the financial aspects, commitment and performance, according to the laws and regulations and agreements as well as relevant international standards, was based on research on the premise that the development of an environmental proposal auditing program that includes environmental controls on oil industry phases which helps reduce or minimize environmental pollutants B

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 02 2024
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
An Artificial Neural Network Prediction Model of GFRP Residual Tensile Strength
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This study uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to examine the constitutive relationships of the Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) residual tensile strength at elevated temperatures. The objective is to develop an effective model and establish fire performance criteria for concrete structures in fire scenarios. Multilayer networks that employ reactive error distribution approaches can determine the residual tensile strength of GFRP using six input parameters, in contrast to previous mathematical models that utilized one or two inputs while disregarding the others. Multilayered networks employing reactive error distribution technology assign weights to each variable influencing the residual tensile strength of GFRP. Temperatur

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 06 2022
Journal Name
Methods And Objects Of Chemical Analysis
Spectrophotometric Analysis of Quaternary Drug Mixtures using Artificial Neural network model
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A Novel artificial neural network (ANN) model was constructed for calibration of a multivariate model for simultaneously quantitative analysis of the quaternary mixture composed of carbamazepine, carvedilol, diazepam, and furosemide. An eighty-four mixing formula where prepared and analyzed spectrophotometrically. Each analyte was formulated in six samples at different concentrations thus twenty four samples for the four analytes were tested. A neural network of 10 hidden neurons was capable to fit data 100%. The suggested model can be applied for the quantitative chemical analysis for the proposed quaternary mixture.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Cavity preparation model in rat maxillary first molars: A pilot study
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Objective: To conduct a standardized method for cavity preparation on the palatal surface of rat maxillary molars and to introduce a standardized method for tooth correct alignment within the specimen during the wax embedding procedure to better detect cavity position within the examined slides. Materials and methods: Six male Wistar rats, aged 4-6 weeks, were used. The maxillary molars of three animals were sectioned in the frontal plane to identify the thickness of hard tissue on the palatal surface of the first molar which was (250-300µm). The end-cutting bur (with a cutting head diameter of 0.2mm) was suitable for preparing a dentinal cavity (70-80µm) depth. Cavity preparation was then performed using the same bur on the tooth surf

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Solving Nonlinear COVID-19 Mathematical Model Using a Reliable Numerical Method
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This research aims to numerically solve a nonlinear initial value problem presented as a system of ordinary differential equations. Our focus is on epidemiological systems in particular. The accurate numerical method that is the Runge-Kutta method of order four has been used to solve this problem that is represented in the epidemic model. The COVID-19 mathematical epidemic model in Iraq from 2020 to the next years is the application under study. Finally, the results obtained for the COVID-19 model have been discussed tabular and graphically. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can be observed via the behavior of the different stages of the model that approximates the behavior of actual the COVID-19 epidemic in Iraq. In our study, the COV

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 11 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
HARLIN model for prediction of solar radiation for Baghdad city, Iraq
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In this study a combination of two basics known methods used to daily prediction of solar insolation in Baghdad city, Iraq, for the first time, the harmonic and the classical linear regression analyses, thus it is called HARLIN model. The resulted prediction data compared with basics data for Baghdad city for two years (2010-2011), where the model showed a great success application in the accurate results, compared with the linear famous and well known model which is used the classical linear Angstrom equations with various formulations in many previous studies.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
3D Geological Model for Zubair Reservoir in Abu-Amood Oil Field
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The Zubair reservoir in the Abu-Amood field is considered a shaly sand reservoir in the south of Iraq. The geological model is created for identifying the facies, distributing the petrophysical properties and estimating the volume of hydrocarbon in place. When the data processing by Interactive Petrophysics (IP) software is completed and estimated the permeability reservoir by using the hydraulic unit method then, three main steps are applied to build the geological model, begins with creating a structural, facies and property models. five zones the reservoirs were divided (three reservoir units and two cap rocks) depending on the variation of petrophysical properties (porosity and permeability) that results from IP software interpr

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Computers, Materials & Continua
Severity Based Light-Weight Encryption Model for Secure Medical Information System
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