Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The cyanobacterial neurotoxin
Many carbonate reservoirs in the world show a tilted in originally oil-water contact (OOWC) which requires a special consideration in the selection of the capillary pressure curves and an understanding of reservoir fluids distribution while initializing the reservoir simulation models.
An analytical model for predicting the capillary pressure across the interface that separates two immiscible fluids was derived from reservoir pressure transient analysis. The model reflected the entire interaction between the reservoir-aquifer fluids and rock properties measured under downhole reservoir conditions.
This model retained the natural coupling of oil reservoirs with the aquifer zone and treated them as an explicit-region composite system
End of the twentieth century witnessed by the technological evolution Convergences between the visual arts aesthetic value and objective representation of the image in the composition of the design of the fabric of new insights and unconventional potential in atypical employment. It is through access to the designs of modern fabrics that address the employment picture footage included several scenes footage from the film, which focuses on research and analytical as a study to demonstrate the elements of the picture and the organization of its rules and how to functioning in the design of fabrics, Thus, it has identified the problem by asking the following: What are the elements of the picture footage and how the functioning of the struct
... Show MoreExtractive multi-document text summarization – a summarization with the aim of removing redundant information in a document collection while preserving its salient sentences – has recently enjoyed a large interest in proposing automatic models. This paper proposes an extractive multi-document text summarization model based on genetic algorithm (GA). First, the problem is modeled as a discrete optimization problem and a specific fitness function is designed to effectively cope with the proposed model. Then, a binary-encoded representation together with a heuristic mutation and a local repair operators are proposed to characterize the adopted GA. Experiments are applied to ten topics from Document Understanding Conference DUC2002 datas
... Show MoreCervical Uterine Cancer is a disease that explains the vulnerability in which women are in terms of reproductive health with an impact on occupational health and public health, even when in Mexico the prevalence rate is lower than the other member countries of the OECD, its impact on Human Development and Local Development shows the importance that the disease have in communities more than in cities where prevention policies through check-ups and medical examinations seem to curb the trend, but show the lack of opportunities and capacities of health centers in rural areas. To establish the reliability, validity, and correlations between the variables reported in the literature with respect to their weighting in a public hospital. A
... Show MoreLawful protection of the human gene conceded a moral concern regarding the future of existence human. After the discovery of the human genetic map, scientific experiments and research related to the human gene increased, negative applications of genetic engineering in particular that violate essential human rights, the right to human dignity to be specific. These practices represent actual challenges to the existence and diversity of current and future generations. Therefore, the presence of legal rules at the domestic and global levels is an absolute necessity to prohibit these threats and determine civil and criminal accountability for those who infringe any laws related to this issue.
The topic of context is one of the important topics, which was mentioned as a concept in several fields and different fields, and there were many points of view that defined that concept.
He specified the title of the research (design contexts in the design of the interior space), as the research sought to identify the concept of context in the interior design of the spaces of sewing workshops. The research was divided into four chapters:
The first chapter, which consists of the methodological framework, the problem of research and the need for it, the importance of research, the goal and limits of research for sewing workshops for vocational schools from (2020-2021).
The second chapter: consists of previous studies and the theo
Identifying people by their ear has recently received import attention in the literature. The accurate segmentation of the ear region is vital in order to make successful person identification decisions. This paper presents an effective approach for ear region segmentation from color ear images. Firstly, the RGB color model was converted to the HSV color model. Secondly, thresholding was utilized to segment the ear region. Finally, the morphological operations were applied to remove small islands and fill the gaps. The proposed method was tested on a database which consisted of 105 ear images taken from the right sides of 105 subjects. The experimental results of the proposed approach on a variety of ear images revealed that this approac
... Show MoreSemiparametric methods combined parametric methods and nonparametric methods ,it is important in most of studies which take in it's nature more progress in the procedure of accurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators efficient, the partial linear regression model is considered the most popular type of semiparametric models, which consisted of parametric component and nonparametric component in order to estimate the parametric component that have certain properties depend on the assumptions concerning the parametric component, where the absence of assumptions, parametric component will have several problems for example multicollinearity means (explanatory variables are interrelated to each other) , To treat this problem we use
... Show MoreAlternative distribution to estimate the Dose – Response model in bioassay excrement
This research concern to study five different distribution (Probit , Logistic, Arc sine , extreme value , One hit ), to estimate dose –response model by using m.l.e and probit method This is done by determining different weights in each distribution in addition find all particular statistics for vital model .