Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
As one type of resistance furnace, the electrical tube furnace (ETF) typically experiences input noise, measurement noise, system uncertainties, unmodeled dynamics and external disturbances, which significantly degrade its temperature control performance. To provide precise, and robust temperature tracking performance for the ETF, a robust composite control (RCC) method is proposed in this paper. The overall RCC method consists of four elements: First, the mathematical model of the ETF system is deduced, then a state feedback control (SFC) is constructed. Third, a novel disturbance observer (DO) is designed to estimate the lumped disturbance with one observer parameter. Moreover, the stability of the closed loop system including controller
... Show MoreA confluence of forces has brought journalism and journalism education to a precipice. The rise of fascism, the advance of digital technology, and the erosion of the economic foundation of news media are disrupting journalism and mass communication (JMC) around the world. Combined with the increasingly globalized nature of journalism and media, these forces are posing extraordinary challenges to and opportunities for journalism and media education. This essay outlines 10 core principles to guide and reinvigorate international JMC education. We offer a concluding principle for JMC education as a foundation for the general education of college students.
In the current work various types of epoxy composites were added to concrete to enhance its effectiveness as a gamma- ray shield. Four epoxy samples of (E/clay/B4C) S1, (E/Mag/B4C) S2, (EPIL) S3 and (Ep) S4 were used in a comparative study of gamma radiation attenuation properties of these shields that calculating using Mont Carlo code (MCNP-5). Adopting Win X-com software and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), µ/ρ revealed great compliance with MCNP-5. By applying (µ/ρ) output for gamma at different energies, HVL, TVL and MFP have been also estimated. ANN technique was simulated to estimate (µ/ρ) and dose rates. According to the results, µ/ρ of all epoxy samples scored higher than standard concrete. Both S2 and S3 samples having h
... Show MorePassive optical network (PON) is a point to multipoint, bidirectional, high rate optical network for data communication. Different standards of PONs are being implemented, first of all PON was ATM PON (APON) which evolved in Broadband PON (BPON). The two major types are Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit passive optical network (GPON). PON with these different standards is called xPON. To have an efficient performance for the last two standards of PON, some important issues will considered. In our work we will integrate a network with different queuing models such M/M/1 and M/M/m model. After analyzing IPACT as a DBA scheme for this integrated network, we modulate cycle time, traffic load, throughput, utilization and overall delay
... Show Moremany painters tried to mix colors with Music by direct employment through colorful musical pieces or the use of multiple instruments and techniques , or vice versa, including the French artist )Robert Stroben(, he transferred the piece of music to be depicted on the painting and worked on the tones of music (Johann Sebastian Bach) by dropping the color on the lines of the musical scale, for example (the C tone) ranging from brown to red ( Tone La A) from gray to orange, and so on, the presence of links and similarity factors between the world of music and the world of colors facilitated the process of linking musical notes with colors, the most famous of which was presented by the world (Newton) in the circle of basic colors and linking
... Show Moreهناك عوامل عديدة تؤثر في البنية الشكلية للم ا ركز الحضرية التي تشهد تحولات وبصورة مستمرة ومع
توسع المدينة ونموها تفقد هذه الم ا ركز لمقومات بنيتها الحضرية المتكاملة بسبب تلك التحولات الحاصلة
ضمنه وبصورة ديناميكية من اضافات وتغيرات في النمط الحضري الذي يتشكل من عدة نماذج معمارية
جديدة مؤثرة ولأجل ذلك جاء البحث لايضاح اثر هذه العلاقة بين النمط الحضري والنموذج المعماري
وتحولاته في تكاملية البنية ا
This paper proposes a new methodology for improving network security by introducing an optimised hybrid intrusion detection system (IDS) framework solution as a middle layer between the end devices. It considers the difficulty of updating databases to uncover new threats that plague firewalls and detection systems, in addition to big data challenges. The proposed framework introduces a supervised network IDS based on a deep learning technique of convolutional neural networks (CNN) using the UNSW-NB15 dataset. It implements recursive feature elimination (RFE) with extreme gradient boosting (XGB) to reduce resource and time consumption. Additionally, it reduces bias toward
... Show MoreThe interest of many companies has become dealing with the tools and methods that reduce the costs as one of the most important factors of successful companies, and became the subject of the attention of many economic units because of the impact on the profits of company, and since the nineties of the last century the researchers and writers gave great attention to this subject, especially in light of the large competition and rapid developments in cost management techniques, as well as the wide and significant change in production methods that have been directed towards achieving customer satisfaction, all this and more driven by economic units in all sectors whether it is service or productivity to find methods that would reduc
... Show MoreNow that most of the conventional reservoirs are being depleted at a rapid pace, the focus is on unconventional reservoirs like tight gas reservoirs. Due to the heterogeneous nature and low permeability of unconventional reservoirs, they require a huge number of wells to hit all the isolated hydrocarbon zones. Infill drilling is one of the most common and effective methods of increasing the recovery, by reducing the well spacing and increasing the sweep efficiency. However, the problem with drilling such a large number of wells is the determination of the optimum location for each well that ensures minimum interference between wells, and accelerates the recovery from the field. Detail
Abstract
Objective of this research focused on testing the impact of internal corporate governance instruments in the management of working capital and the reflection of each of them on the Firm performance. For this purpose, four main hypotheses was formulated, the first, pointed out its results to a significant effect for each of corporate major shareholders ownership and Board of Directors size on the net working capital and their association with a positive relation. The second, explained a significant effect of net working capital on the economic value added, and their link inverse relationship, while the third, explored a significant effect for each of the corporate major shareholders ownershi
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