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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 24 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Theoretical Calculation of The Binding And Excitation Energies For 𝐍𝐢 𝟐𝟖 𝟓𝟖 30 Using Shell Model And Perturbation Theory
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    A theoretical calculation of the binding and excitation energies have been used at low – lying energies based on shell model and quantum theory. In this model, we evaluated the energies under assume Ni 28 56 30 as inert core with two nucleon extra, nucleons in the  2P3/2 ,  1f 5/2  and 2P1/2  configuration. Modified Surface Delta Interaction (MSDI) and Reid's Potential (RP) theory for two body matrix elements are evaluated by using a Matlab program to calculate the energies of experimental and Reid single particle energies. Our results of the theoretical calculation have been compared with the experimental results, which show no good agreement with the experiment but have a good agreement wit

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Alternative development in the proposed model of the Strategy for Empowerment and Spatial Sustainable Development/ Baghdad Governorate Council as a case study
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This research mainly aims to analyze local development strategy in Baghdad Governance, build the Strategic Model based on the study area's spatial interaction, and achieve the Trinity of Excellence based on the global model of excellence.

           This research applied SWOT strategic analysis for the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment and opportunities and threats of the external environment for the provincial council. In conclusion, the research specifies appropriate alternatives and choosing the best in line with the reality of the Baghdad Provincial Council. Also, the strategic goals in the national plan and the spatial interaction of the development goals,

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of a PID and a Fuzzy PID Controllers Designed for Controlling a Simulated Quadcopter Rotational Dynamics Model
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This work is concerned with designing two types of controllers, a PID and a Fuzzy PID, to be used
for flying and stabilizing a quadcopter. The designed controllers have been tuned, tested, and
compared using two performance indices which are the Integral Square Error (ISE) and the Integral
Absolute Error (IAE), and also some response characteristics like the rise time, overshoot, settling
time, and the steady state error. To try and test the controllers, a quadcopter mathematical model has
been developed. The model concentrated on the rotational dynamics of the quadcopter, i.e. the roll,
pitch, and yaw variables. The work has been simulated with “MATLAB”. To make testing the
simulated model and the controllers m

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Biz method and classical methods in estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model
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Abstract

          Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 11 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Regularity Relations Signals According Pillars Expressive Between the Narrator and Narrative Discourse Alcinmatugrave Legend Movie In 1900 A Model
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This study is concerned with the concept of offering a point of view as a narrative construction element, especially the element and point of view of the novel to the letter Alcinmatugrave both business taken from masterpieces and literary works in the foundation or set of cinema. On the whole, the narrator participate in mock narrative process and support the narrator visual image, especially stories that need to exist scenes prove added to the image that uses signs of reality to take those marks a new dimension not only across the image, but also the intervention of the narrator in the re-formation of this realism marks surrounding Palms perceived and visible and put markers regularly between what the narrative of privacy and image, fo

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Solving Resource Allocation Model by Using Dynamic Optimization Technique for Al-Raji Group Companies for Soft Drinks and Juices
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In this paper, the problem of resource allocation at Al-Raji Company for soft drinks and juices was studied. The company produces several types of tasks to produce juices and soft drinks, which need machines to accomplish these tasks, as it has 6 machines that want to allocate to 4 different tasks to accomplish these tasks. The machines assigned to each task are subject to failure, as these machines are repaired to participate again in the production process. From past records of the company, the probability of failure machines at each task was calculated depending on company data information. Also, the time required for each machine to complete each task was recorded. The aim of this paper is to determine the minimum expected ti

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 17 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
Employing the Teleological-Causal Presumption between Al-Khwarizmi and Ibn Yaish’s Explanations of Al-Mufasal (even) as a Model
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It is a moral presumption that includes the object for its sake, and it is called the object for it or the object for its sake, which is the present tense after (lam, ki, fa, willn, and then), and it is not an excuse for the occurrence of the matter (1), and it requires a connection between the two sides of (a cause with a cause) united by a reason for a specific purpose (2). The object has a reason or an excuse, because it is an explanation of what came before it, of the cause. The reason for the occurrence of the action, being the motive for causing the action and the bearer of it (3), indicates that the infinitive is restricted to a special reason. So if I said: (I came to you with the hope of honoring you), then I attributed the coming

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Scienceasia
A combined compact genetic algorithm and local search method for optimizing the ARMA(1,1) model of a likelihood estimator
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In this paper, a compact genetic algorithm (CGA) is enhanced by integrating its selection strategy with a steepest descent algorithm (SDA) as a local search method to give I-CGA-SDA. This system is an attempt to avoid the large CPU time and computational complexity of the standard genetic algorithm. Here, CGA dramatically reduces the number of bits required to store the population and has a faster convergence. Consequently, this integrated system is used to optimize the maximum likelihood function lnL(φ1, θ1) of the mixed model. Simulation results based on MSE were compared with those obtained from the SDA and showed that the hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) and I-CGA-SDA can give a good estimator of (φ1, θ1) for the ARMA(1,1) model. Anot

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Iraqi Press and its Role in Shaping Electoral Awareness (Iraqi Parliamentary Elections on 30 April, 2014 as a Model)
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The parliamentary election is one of the features of democratic systems that give individuals the right to participate in government and political election-making. Typically, the process of parliamentary elections received wide attention from media, as well as attention from large segments of the public because they understand the vast importance to assume political positions and associated fates of people and their destinies. Its importance comes from the fact that it allows citizens the right to participate in managing the public affairs by granting their confidence and voices to the elected president or his representatives in the parliamentary.
Media task is to emerge democratic societies, in particular, in the mission of urging p

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Acculturation and its Evolutionary Tendency in the Design of the Prayer Space Elements / Niche – A model: آلاء طالب كريم
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The peculiarity of worship spaces in the Islamic architecture is evident by its symbolic connotations with doctrinal connections, thus the niche has a major status in that symbolic connotation, which transformed due to the cultural interaction from a rock on the wall directed towards Mecca into an element of integrated structural entity with performative and aesthetic characteristics. The spread of the Islamic religion contributed to subjecting it to a design acculturation process, thus the problem of the research was raised by the following question: has the evolutionary tendency of acculturation been able to effect a major transformation in the niche design? The research aims at identifying the design acculturation and its translation

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