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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Developed Model for Selecting Optimum Locations of Water Harvesting Dams Using GIS Techniques
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An integrated GIS-VBA (Geographical Information System – Visual Basic for Application), model is developed for selecting an optimum water harvesting dam location among an available locations in a watershed. The proposed model allows quick and precise estimation of an adopted weighted objective function for each selected location. In addition to that for each location, a different dam height is used as a nominee for optimum selection. The VBA model includes an optimization model with a weighted objective function that includes beneficiary items (positive) , such as the available storage , the dam height allowed by the site as an indicator for the potential of hydroelectric power generation , the rainfall rate as a source of water . In a

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On Estimating Reliability of a Stress – Strength Model in Case of Rayleigh Pareto Distribution
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The stress – strength model is one of the models that are used to compute reliability. In this paper, we derived mathematical formulas for the reliability of the stress – strength model that follows Rayleigh Pareto (Rayl. – Par) distribution. Here, the model has a single component, where strength Y is subjected to a stress X, represented by moment, reliability function, restricted behavior, and ordering statistics. Some estimation methods were used, which are the maximum likelihood, ordinary least squares, and two shrinkage methods, in addition to a newly suggested method for weighting the contraction. The performance of these estimates was studied empirically by using simulation experimentation that could give more varieties for d

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EVALUATING THE QUALITY OF IMPORTED AND LOCAL FLOUR IN TERMS OF QUALITY WITH IRON AND FOLIC ACID AND ITS COMPLIANCE WITH IRAQI STANDARD: EVALUATING THE QUALITY OF IMPORTED AND LOCAL FLOUR IN TERMS OF QUALITY WITH IRON AND FOLIC ACID AND ITS COMPLIANCE WITH IRAQI STANDARD
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Food fortification has an important and necessary role in compensating for the shortage of nutritional micronutrients, especially in developing and least developed countries. So, 12 samples of flour available in the local market, whether imported or locally produced flour, were obtained during 2019. The amount of base metal of the necessary iron element in the flour models studied which are available in local markets, measured by spot testing and was compared with the values ​​that should be added according to the specification Iraqi standard. Results revealed the qualitative evaluation of iron in locally produced flour does not conform to the Iraqi standard and is almost free of any reinforcement. While the percentage of imp

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 12 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The agenda of the French news agency AFP in dealing with the press image of the peaceful resistance The Great Return Marches as a model "an analytical study" “A analytical study”
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The study aimed to identify the treatment of the press image of the Great Return Marches in the French international news agency AFP by knowing the most important issues, their direction and the degree of interest in them. The study belongs to the descriptive research, and used the survey method, within the context of the content analysis method, and the researcher relied on the content analysis form tool and the interview tool to collect data. The study population is represented in the photos published by the French News Agency about the Great Return Marches during the period (end of March / 2018 until the end of November / 2019. The researcher chose an intentional sample using the Complete Census method. The study material represented

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of Possible Changes in Lipid Profiles between Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Women with Hyperthyroidism and Others with Hypothyroidism
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      Menopause is the lack of menstrual cycle for at least six months. Due to hormonal changes, the alternation of lipid profile as a risk factor related to heart disease increases during menopause . One hundred twenty Iraqi women, aged between 40-65 years, were selected for this study. They were divided into two groups: 60 premenopausal and 60 postmenopausal women, and then each group was further divided into two subgroups: 20 women with hyperthyroidism and 20 with hypothyroidism, as well as 20 healthy women as control group. Blood samples were collected to estimate  hormonal parameter by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and lipid profile using enzymatic technique. The results showed that alterations in lipid profile inc

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Ssrn Electronic Journal
Developing a Predictive Model and Multi-Objective Optimization of a Photovoltaic/Thermal System Based on Energy and Exergy Analysis Using Response Surface Methodology
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 17 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Nucleon momentum distributions and elastic electron scattering form factors for 58Ni, 60Ni, 62Ni, and 64Ni isotopes using the framework of coherent fluctuation model
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The nucleon momentum distributions (NMD) and elastic electron scattering form factors of the ground state for some 1f-2p-shell nuclei, such as 58Ni, 60Ni, 62Ni, and 64Ni
isotopes have been calculated in the framework of the coherent fluctuation model (CFM) and expressed in terms of the weight function lf(x)l. The weight function (fluctuation function) has been related to the nucleon density distribution (NDD) of the nuclei and determined from the theory and experiment. The NDD is derived from a simple method based on the use of the single particle wave functions of the harmonic oscillator potential and the occupation numbers of the states. The feature of the l

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
University Of Northampton Pue
Validating a Proposed Data Mining Approach (SLDM) for Motion Wearable Sensors to Detect the Early Signs of Lameness in Sheep
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Detection of Adenovirus antigen and its correlation with clinical signs among children with gastroenteritis
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A total of 90 stool sample was collected from patients with gastroenteritis to
detect adenovirus antigen among diarrhea cases. They were tested by general stool
examination (GSE), rapid immunochromatographic test and Enzyme Linked
Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). GSE showed that adenovirus gastroenteritis
infection resulted in non-bloody diarrhea, the existence of RBCs in 7% and Pus in
37% of the samples, Entamoeba histolytica trophozoite and cyst were seen in 3%
and 2% of the samples respectively. The rapid test showed that 21% of samples
were positive for rotavirus, 8% for adenovirus and 3% for astrovirus. Meanwhile,
the ELISA test showed that adenovirus was positive in 9% of the samples. These
findings establish

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of antibacterial effect of irrigant solutions (titanium tetra fluoride, green tea, sodium hypochlorite, normal saline) using real-time quantitative – polymerase chain reaction
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Background: Removal of bacteria from the pulp system by instrumentation of an infected root canal, will be significantly reduced the number of bacteria, but it is well documented that instrumentation alone can-not clean and kill all bacteria found on the root canal walls. Antibacterial irrigants are needed to kill the remaining microorganisms. The aims of this study was to assess antibacterial effect of titanium tetrafluoride (TiF4) solution and brewing green tea against root canal bacteria and to compare with sodium hypochlorite and normal saline through microbiological and molecular studies. Materials and methods: Microbiological study was carried out to determine the concentration of titanium tetrafluoride and brewing green tea at which

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