The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
Abstract
This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi
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The research aims to identify the concept of trading securities in Iraq and to propose a new mechanism for the taxation of trading profits and the extent of its impact on tax revenues, as it was observed that there are professional investors in the trading market and some of them achieve huge annual profits. and this profit should be like other taxable profits. The General Commission of Taxes and in cooperation with the Iraq Stock Exchange should identifying those profits, subjecting them to income tax, and adding them to the tax base. The researcher relied on the use of the descriptive and analytical approach bas
... Show MoreWith the increasing use of antibiotics around the world, the study and appreciation of antibiotics has become essential. An antibiotic formulation may include one or added active ingredients depending on the type and method of manufacturing the antibiotic. Antibiotics can only combat diseases of bacterial origin. As for viral diseases such as the common cold and influenza, antibiotics will not be able to combat them. The objective of this review is to digest the literature related to estimation of antibiotics and to show the methods that have been used in the estimation of the antibiotics (amoxicillin, ampicillin, cephalothin, carbenicillin, and cefotaxime) in medicinal preparations and a biological fluid for example blood
... Show MoreThis study examined the problematic of the ambiguous relationship between the media and terrorism and the problems that result from press coverage of terroristic incidents. The paper sought to show the classification and confrontation of such incidents had been established from the point of view of a sample of media professionals, researchers and writers who are frequenters of Al-Mutanabi Street in Baghdad. The media outlets that carry this coverage would not give up their media mission as well as the terrorists would not be given an opportunity to take advantage of this coverage in achieving their goals and objectives. Furthermore, the terrorist organizations would have no chance to exploit these means to deliver their terroristic messa
... Show MoreEnvironmental factors that damage plant cells by dehydrating them, such cold, drought, and high salinity, are the most common environmental stresses that have an impact on plant growth, development, and productivity in cultivated regions around the world. Several types of plants have several drought, salinity, and cold inducible genes that make them tolerant to environmental challenges. The purpose of this study was to investigate several species in
In this research we study a variance component model, Which is the one of the most important models widely used in the analysis of the data, this model is one type of a multilevel models, and it is considered as linear models , there are three types of linear variance component models ,Fixed effect of linear variance component model, Random effect of linear variance component model and Mixed effect of linear variance component model . In this paper we will examine the model of mixed effect of linear variance component model with one –way random effect ,and the mixed model is a mixture of fixed effect and random effect in the same model, where it contains the parameter (μ) and treatment effect (τi ) which has
... Show MoreThis present work is concerned with one of the syntactic issues that has been researched by many linguists, grammarians, and specialists in Islamic studies, the estimated answer to a condition. However, this topic is researched this time by examining Imam Al-Qurtbi’s opinions in interpreting related ayas from the holly Quraan in his book (Collector of Quranic Rules) or its transliteration (Al-Jami’ Li Ahkam Al-Quran). Such a step involves commenting on, tracking what Al-Qurtbi said in this regard, discussing it from the points of view of other grammarians, and judging it accordingly, taking into account the apparent surface structures of the examples collected. To achieve this objective, the inductive analytical approach has be
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We have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD)
... Show MoreWe have presented the distribution of the exponentiated expanded power function (EEPF) with four parameters, where this distribution was created by the exponentiated expanded method created by the scientist Gupta to expand the exponential distribution by adding a new shape parameter to the cumulative function of the distribution, resulting in a new distribution, and this method is characterized by obtaining a distribution that belongs for the exponential family. We also obtained a function of survival rate and failure rate for this distribution, where some mathematical properties were derived, then we used the method of maximum likelihood (ML) and method least squares developed (LSD) to estimate the parameters an
... Show MoreIn the present article, we implement the new iterative method proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari (NIM) [V. Daftardar-Gejji, H. Jafari, An iterative method for solving nonlinear functional equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 316 (2006) 753-763] to solve two problems; the first one is the problem of spread of a non-fatal disease in a population which is assumed to have constant size over the period of the epidemic, and the other one is the problem of the prey and predator. The results demonstrate that the method has many merits such as being derivative-free, overcome the difficulty arising in calculating Adomian polynomials to handle the nonlinear terms in Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM), does not require to calculate Lagrange multiplier a
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