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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
International Academic Journal Of Accounting And Financial Management
Analyzing and Measuring the Relationship between Public Spending and the Parallel Exchange Rate in the Iraqi Economy for the Period 2004-2022
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Public spending represents the government’s financial leverage and has a significant impact on real and monetary economic variables, and one of these effects is the effect of public spending on the exchange rate as an important monetary variable for monetary policy, As we know that public spending in Iraq is financed from oil revenues sold in US dollars, and the Ministry of Finance converts the US dollar into Iraqi dinars to finance the government's need to spend within the requirements and obligations of the state's general budget, And converting the US dollar into Iraqi dinars has an impact on the parallel exchange market, even if there is a contractual exchange rate between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq to

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties
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Rate of penetration plays a vital role in field development process because the drilling operation is expensive and include the cost of equipment and materials used during the penetration of rock and efforts of the crew in order to complete the well without major problems. It’s important to finish the well as soon as possible to reduce the expenditures. So, knowing the rate of penetration in the area that is going to be drilled will help in speculation of the cost and that will lead to optimize drilling outgoings. In this research, an intelligent model was built using artificial intelligence to achieve this goal.  The model was built using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to predict the rate of penetration in

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 05 2025
Journal Name
Mesopotamian Journal Of Computer Science
DGEN: A Dynamic Generative Encryption Network for Adaptive and Secure Image Processing
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Cyber-attacks keep growing. Because of that, we need stronger ways to protect pictures. This paper talks about DGEN, a Dynamic Generative Encryption Network. It mixes Generative Adversarial Networks with a key system that can change with context. The method may potentially mean it can adjust itself when new threats appear, instead of a fixed lock like AES. It tries to block brute‑force, statistical tricks, or quantum attacks. The design adds randomness, uses learning, and makes keys that depend on each image. That should give very good security, some flexibility, and keep compute cost low. Tests still ran on several public image sets. Results show DGEN beats AES, chaos tricks, and other GAN ideas. Entropy reached 7.99 bits per pix

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 05 2024
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الإنسانية /كلية التربية للعلوم الإنسانية
The Relationship between Iraqi EFL University Students’ Cognitive Flexibility and Writing Performance
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One of the main significant purposes of learning the English language is the need to have an effective communication allowing for exchange and transmitting information. As a basic form of human communication that allows people to connect, communicate, and share experiences with one another is writing skill. Through practicing trainable abilities like speaking, and writing, adaptation skills are required to overcome issues that develop in unfamiliar environments. Learners must be cognitively flexible to reconstruct and adjust to these situations' demands. This study aims at looking into the level of cognitive flexibility and writing abilities of Iraqi EFL university students. It also seeks to determine how these two variables are related. It

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical, Chemical And Biological Sciences
The Relationship between Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Diabetes Mellitus Type 2
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To determine the relationship between hepatitis C virus infection and Diabetic mellitus type 2 , twenty patient's with diabetic mellitus type 2 aged (30-61) years old have been investigated from 01/11/2014 to 01/02/2015 and compared with fifteen parentally healthy individuals. All the studies groups were carried out to measure anti-HCV Abs by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), There was significant elevation (P≤0.05) in the HCV Abs compared with control groups .The percentage of HCV Abs was 15% and there was highly significant (P≤0.01) differences between studied group, while there was non-significant differences (P≥0.05) between patients groups according to age and gender compared with control groups. These results indicated

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The relationship between Intrinsic Motivation Academy and Time Management among University students
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study aimed to recognize The relationship between Intrinsic Motivation Academy and Time Management among University students and measure Intrinsic Motivation Academy And Time Management for sample and Balancing Degrees of Basic Research on the two scales According to the Variable genders and Specialization, The sample consisted (350) students by (230) female (120) male , and the sample  responded scales of Intrinsic Motivation Academy for (Alwan & Attaat2009) and Time Management (Building tool), The Results of this study show that: There are statistically significant differences according to gender variable in Intrinsic Motivation Academy and Time Management in favor of the male, and there are statistica

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Relationship between the microorganisms isolated from septicemic neonates and place of delivery
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Background: Neonatal septicemia is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide especially so in developing countries. To reduce the mortality caused by neonatal septicemia, it became vital to diagnose it as soon as possible and treat with administration of appropriate antibiotics.Objective: To study the relationship between themicroorganisms isolated from septicemic neonates with place of delivery.Patients and Methods: Blood sample was obtained from 76 neonates (50 of them are born in Baghdad teaching hospital (Inborn), 26 of the babies are born at home or in Al-Elwya teaching hospital (out born) ,the laboratory diagnosis for the out born patients done in the same hospital(Al-Elwya teaching hospital .The aged of the neo

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis the Causal Relationship between Oil Exports and Economic Growth in Iraq
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The oil exports play a vital role in supporting economic development and raise the economic growth. The oil exports can increase the economic growth via three main channels which are supporting the productive, distributive and service sectors; increasing the investment and capital formation; and increasing the employment rate.

However, the oil exports did not have an important role in increasing the economic growth in Iraq. Therefore, it also did not provide the required support to other economic sectors, neither participated in increase the employees’ skills nor increase the investment rate. It may slightly contribute in enhancement the infrastructure that can attract the public and private investments

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
PHARAOH'S CHARACTER BETWEEN THE QUR'ANIC TEXT AND THE ARABIC NOVEL: (Naguib Mahfouz's Pharaonic Novels as a Model)
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The Character is one of the elements of Storytelling, as it is the center of the plot, making it the basis on which the talk is about. The talk is the portrayal of the character while they’re acting; the novelist presents the character by interacting with the events, and the extent of the negative and positive appearing impact on the character. It should be noted that everyone has two personalities or more, each one appearing in a different position or situation. For instance, a man can be a father, a lover, an employee, a son or anyone else .. in another position, he might be a master, and in another a looser begging for the mercy of his humiliator, and sometimes he can show weakness to the one he loves, or show strength to his enemie

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Alexandria Engineering Journal
Impact of dust storms on plant biomass: Model structure and dynamic study
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