The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
This study was conducted to determine the relationship between two most common diseases in Iraqis patients , which are Diabetic mellitus (DM) and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA); seeking rheumatoid factor in hyperglycemic sera. The results revealed that ; 62.5% of hyperglycemic (HG) patients had positive rheumatoid factor (RF) . No difference in number between both gender of HG patients (20 males and 20 females ) , RF reaction was nearly similar in males and females of HG patients ( 12 &13 respectively ) . Only 40% out of patient controls had positive RF . None of the apparently healthy subjects had positive RF .
Despite Iraq's possession of the energies material, human and agricultural resources and great economic but that contribution of the agricultural sector in the total gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product in the Iraqi economy remained low and declining continuously since the nineties of the last century, as well as the inability of agricultural production to meet the country's needs of food . The food gap increased strategic food crops until it reached 1049 thousand tons in 2010. On this basis, there is a need to study and analysis the behavior of the function of gross fixed capital format
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to determine the impact of profit management practices on the quality of profits through the use of flexibility in determining accounting methods and practices profit information is one of the most important information that concerns current users in general and observing users in particular. Some corporations managements manipulate the results of the company's profit or loss (income statement) and financial position statement with multiple reasons, including capital market motivations to raise their share prices in the stock market and attract investors, and on the other hand the motives of funding and borrowing loans, and the use of the flexibility in accounting policies and estimates to change the in
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the relationship between spatial ability and the physical structure of concepts to the students of the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences / Ibn al-Haitham، research involved students from the third class / morning study for the year 2011/2012 totaling (98) male and female students ،distributed into three groups which were selected randomly . The number of students (26 males and females) represented research sample after excluding repeaters and absentees، the research included two tests ; one test of spatial ability، which included (20) items and other test the physical structure of concepts، which included (12) items distributed into four domains ، the first (linking b
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to construct a Mathematical model connecting the variation between the ambient temperatures and the level of consumption of kerosene in Iraq during the period (1985-1995), and use it to predict the level of this consumption during the years (2005-2015) based on the estimation of the ambient temperatures.
The technical development has significant effects on the mediator Alcinmatugrave, and TV originated mainly based on technical, with the development and the continuation of these technologies and the enormous impact on the level of the television picture, initially dramas in recent times approaching in the aesthetic composition of the film thanks to the employment of modern digital technologies, Montag was not only one of the cinematic elements that went into television thanks to technical developments analogue and digital, and which added the possibility of large processors in the picture, high-definition digital cameras that have led to dispense often for artificial lighting intensive imaging light available, as these cameras have helpe
... Show MoreBackground: This study aims to determine whether cigarette smoking and anxiety degrees are related among nurses. Methods: A correlation design study was conducted at Baquba Teaching Hospital in Diyala Governorate, and the study period extended from September 10th, 2023, to January 28th, 2024. A nonprobability purposive sample was used to include 200 nurses working at Baquba Teaching Hospital, Iraq. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire from January 10th to February 7th, 2024. There were two components to the study instruments. Initially, the demographic sheet contained the individuals' sociodemographic data. The Taylor manifest anxiety scale is included in the second section. The collected data were analyzed us
... Show MoreLinear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust
... Show MoreThe scholastic view of public religion differed, and this difference was on two extremes. All economic schools agreed that public debt is a monetary liquidity that was unjustly deducted from the income and output cycle as a result of the imbalance in the economic balance and the departure from the conditions of balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Debt is a waste of financial resources allocated to productive accumulation. Except for the Keynesian school, which considers public debt to be an addition to aggregate demand after the decline in the role of the private sector in investment as a result of pessimistic expectations that warn of signs of economic contraction. Public debt is linked to the ex
... Show MoreSimulation of the Linguistic Fuzzy Trust Model (LFTM) over oscillating Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) where the goodness of the servers belonging to them could change along the time is presented in this paper, and the comparison between the outcomes achieved with LFTM model over oscillating WSNs with the outcomes obtained by applying the model over static WSNs where the servers maintaining always the same goodness, in terms of the selection percentage of trustworthy servers (the accuracy of the model) and the average path length are also presented here. Also in this paper the comparison between the LFTM and the Bio-inspired Trust and Reputation Model for Wireless Sensor Network
... Show More