The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Controlling public expenditures is one of the main objectives of the public budget. The public budget often suffers from a deficit, whether in developed or developing countries, because expenditures are usually greater than the revenues generated. This requires the existence of financial rules that are adhered to by the government, which in turn leads to discipline. Fiscal policy leads to a reduction in the obligations incumbent on the government. Adhering to the financial rules would correct the course of fiscal policy in Iraq, with the need to direct oil revenues in the years of financial abundance when global oil prices rise to sovereign funds similar to other rentier countries, which contributes to maintaining the stabi
... Show MoreThe evolution of thought, planning for Urban Communities in the second half of the twentieth century, through several successive stages. He was thought of planning urban communities depends on identifying the general plan for land uses of the project area as a basis for drawing charts the physical, social, economic, and put the general plan for land uses based on the terms of reference set by the number of experts in the ministries and agencies. I have lived cities in the Arab-Muslim region, during the transition period the natural and historic environment, urban, sophisticated balanced ways mentioned in the cultural, social, inspired by the teachings of Islam and the customs and traditions of the Arab social, put forth a set of
... Show MoreThis research aims to solve the problem of selection using clustering algorithm, in this research optimal portfolio is formation using the single index model, and the real data are consisting from the stocks Iraqi Stock Exchange in the period 1/1/2007 to 31/12/2019. because the data series have missing values ,we used the two-stage missing value compensation method, the knowledge gap was inability the portfolio models to reduce The estimation error , inaccuracy of the cut-off rate and the Treynor ratio combine stocks into the portfolio that caused to decline in their performance, all these problems required employing clustering technic to data mining and regrouping it within clusters with similar characteristics to outperform the portfolio
... Show MoreThe relative strength index (RSI) is one of the best known technical analysis indicators; it provides the speculators by prior signals about the future stock’s prices, and because the speculations in shares of companies which listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange have a high degree of risk, like risk of shares prices felling, so the speculators became committed to use some methods to reduce these risks, and one of these methods is the technical analysis by using the relative strength index (RSI) which enable the speculators of choosing the right time for buy and sell the stocks and the right time to enter or leave the market by using the historical rice data. And from here the problem of the research formulated as “Is the using of
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to develop a method for applying financial derivatives in the local environment to reduce the risk of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to enhance quality of accounting profits through Financial reporting to local units In accordance with international financial reporting standards, To accomplish this objective was selected a sample of Iraqi units exposed to the risk of fluctuations in foreign currency rates, As the research found:
- many companies and banks in the local environment a lot of losses due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
- that financial derivatives in the Iraqi environment represent
Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
... Show MoreThe research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS
... Show MoreMechanism of Arbitration in the Stock Exchange Disputes
The text has many connotations in the Arabic language, such as vowel points, designation, completion, etc., and the original meaning of the text is to show. The Western text has its owen independent semantic unit .The biblical texts are a mixture of what was reported by the Prophet Moses (peace be upon him) and what the authors described in terms of texts over many centuries.The meaning of the text is guidance and payment, and it is a natural connotation. The religious text for Muslims is divided into peremptory texts that are national proof. The evidence for the meaning of the text is proven by language, and it is not required that the researcher be a jurist. The approach is a factual questionnaire by the researcher according to a speci
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