The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The Strait of Malacca is one of the waterways of strategic, political, and economic importance. This strait has an increasing importance to its neighboring countries. The Strait of Malacca is very important for China, especially in the field of energy supply security, as the vast ma jority of energy supplies come to China through this strait. China seeks to ensure its security, especially in light of the cooperation of countries that look forward to this strait as well as the United States, and what the United States may cause to China, as many of them are at war with China over the China Sea, not to mention the countries that overlook it. The importance of the research emerges from the basic idea that the strategic importance of the Strait
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the extent of the impact of non-Iraqi trading of shares in the Iraq Stock Exchange on the overall financial investment in the market size. And it imposes a search and no statistically significant relationship between variable trading non-Iraqis, the size and the total volume of the market and took the search Iraq Stock Exchange sample to search being the only private place to trade securities in Iraq for the period of 2009- 2015 in order to see if there is a positive impact on the size of trading non-Iraqis or not. Search and adopted the annual reports issued by the Iraq Stock Exchange the main conclusion are:
Having a positive effect on the size of the trading of non-Iraqis in the financial vo
... Show MoreIraq within the ranks of the fledgling communities characterized by a broad base of the population pyramid, because they pose the age group (under 15 years) of a large proportion of the community, as it exceeded the proportion (40%) during the years of research extended (1986-2010) Despite the relative decline in the rates fertility during that period, but the proportion of young people remained high, especially for groups of at least five years, amounting to about 14% in 2012, a little more than the proportion of what constitutes age group (5-9 above) years, where it was (13%) and this naturally predicts continuing population increases in coming decades, due to the entry of those numbers of individuals in the reproductive stage,
... Show MoreIn this research, we sought to identify the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan and the value of Chinese exports, through the formulation of a standard model based on the model of common integration, and based on the data of the study and using the test "Angel-Granger" It reflects the relationship between the two research variables, through which the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the value of Chinese exports was estimated during the period 1978-2017.
The adoption of the concept of preventive war in any country especially in a country like the United States result in a lot of serious consequences, so that pre-emptive military action may alter certain regional arrangements based on the basis of political and security balance, and reduce the incidence of tensions that may worsen a sudden during the application of preventive war, so the concept is applicable to be a risk much more when you face the reality and that because the issues more importantly, it should prepare a detailed and careful study of the post –stage of the use of preventive military action and this requires realy no papers insist or documents discuss this but accurate this field study of the situation thereafter.
Abstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
... Show MoreThe research discusses one of the most critical issues of corporate finance which is related to asset utilization efficiency. Researchers used internal growth rate as independent variable (Proxy of asset utilization efficiency) and sustainable growth rate-dependent variable (proxy of stockholders wealth). According to these two variables, researchers formulate major hypotheses (There is no significant effect of internal growth rate on sustainable growth rate), as well as two sub-hypotheses, examine the components of major variables. Sample of Iraqi industrial companies which listed in the Iraqi stock exchange selected to test and examine main hypotheses. Result of simple and multiple regressions explain there is a significant effect of i
... Show Moreإن موضوع الشرق الأوسط بشكل عام اتخذ أهمية كبيرة في الكتابات والمؤلفات التي صدرت منذ بداية النصف الأول من عقد التسعينات من القرن المنصرم مع بدايات مشاريع السلام التي أعقبت انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي وتغير الخارطة السياسية والاقتصادية والايديولوجية للعالم .وعلى الرغم ان المصطلح ليس بجديد الا ان تعابير المصطلح وددلالاته تتغير مع تغير موازين القوى واتجاهات المصالح. إذ انتقل من مصطلح جغرافي الى
... Show MoreDialogue is one of the pillars of character building in the television series, through which it is possible to identify the most important characteristics and traits of the personality, in addition to its ability to reveal the most important problems at all levels. The following: (How does dialogue contribute to enhancing the traits of the alienated personality?). It therefore aims to identify the effectiveness of the dramatic dialogue in enhancing the traits of the alienated personality represented by (powerlessness, isolation, meaninglessness, objectification, non-standardization and rebellion). (The traits of the alienated character, and the second is the psychological function of the dramatic dialogue), to extract from them the main
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