Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

         The understanding exchange rate policy is fundamental in order to identify the mechanism by which works out macroeconomic, And the vital for macroeconomic analysis and empirical work to differentiate between the de facto regimes and de jure regimes, Where the proved surveys and studies issued by the international monetary fund that there is divergence between the de facto regime (Regime of exchange applied by the country actually) and between the de jure regime (Regime de jure through the documents and formal writings of officials of the central bank), And launched studies on the de facto regime (Being a the basis of evaluating monetary policy) Stabilized (peg-like)arrangements or

We have investigated in this research, the contents of the electronic cigarette (Viber) and the emergence of the phenomenon of electronic smoking (vibing) were discussed, although the topic of smoking is one of the oldest topics on which many articles and research have been conducted, electronic smoking has not been studied according to statistical scientific research, we tried in this research to identify the concept of electronic smoking to sample the studied data and to deal with it in a scientific way. This research included conducting a statistical analysis using the factor analysis of a sample taken randomly from some colleges in Bab Al-medium in Baghdad with a size of (70) views where  (КМО) and a (bartlett) tests

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره

A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs

 Research Summary

It highlights the importance of assessing the demand for money function in Iraq through the understanding of the relationship between him and affecting the variables by searching the stability of this function and the extent of their influence in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate in order to know the amount of their contribution to the monetary policies of the Iraqi economy fee, as well as through study behavior of the demand for money function in Iraq and analyze the determinants of the demand for money for the period 1991-2013 and the impact of these determinants in the demand for money in Iraq.

And that the problem that we face is how to estimate the total demand for money in

Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21^st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco

The exchange rate is the backbone of  any economy in the world, whether  developed or developing, where most countries adopted  many policies, in order to ensure the stability of the exchange rate of the currency, because of its importance as a link between the local economy and the others ,And it contribute in the achievement of internal and external balance and despite the many different factors that affect it, but there is wide consensus on the effectiveness of the role of spending and the currency window in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, especially in the Iraqi economy, effectiveness As the increase in government spending lead to an increase in the supply of money and increase domestic demand and high pr

The depreciation of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, reaching low levels and causing disruptions in the local markets, has had detrimental effects on individuals and companies, particularly those with limited income and the poor. The local currency approached around 1600 dinars per dollar, after the official exchange rate had stabilized at around 1450 dinars per US dollar. This depreciation in the value of the Iraqi dinar can be attributed to financial speculation among currency traders, which directly affected exchange rates and illicit dollar smuggling operations. Bank transfers are also important alongside financial transactions, especially in light of current economic developments in the 21st century. To prevent currency s