The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Purpose: To use the balanced measurement approach as a strategic link for increasing the effectiveness of strategic planning in the direction of achieving satisfaction rates at Bisha University in Saudi Arabia
Design / methodology / approach –The questionnaire survey was used to collect the data of the study from the faculty members at University of Bisha.
Findings –Prove the assumption that the use of the balanced measurement approach - as a strategic planning tool - leads to maximize the satisfaction rates among faculty members at the University of Bisha.
Research limitations/implications- adopt effective strategic planning in order to achieve
... Show MoreArtificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and
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This study aimed to choose top stocks through technical analysis tools specially the indicator called (ratio of William index), and test the ability of technical analysis tools in building a portfolio of shares efficient in comparison with the market portfolio. These one technical tools were used for building one portfolios in 21 companies on specific preview conditions and choose 10 companies for the period from (March 2015) to (June 2017). Applied results of the research showed that Portfolio yield for companies selected according to the ratio of William index indicator (0.0406) that
... Show MoreThe researcher tackles the most outstanding conditions of experimentation, the importance of the study lies in being helpful to the workers in the field of theatre in general and directors in particular which the conditions of experimentation that should be taken.The study aims at knowing the experimental basis which the director (Sami Abdulhamid) followed in the realization of this.The researcher tackles in the First inquiry the concept of experimentation and the second tackles the conditions of experimentation.In the methodology of study the researcher analyzed the show of the "Othello in the Kitchen" and comes up to the following: 1. the dhows has cone with the nature of the previous shows experienced the methods that were not familia
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do not possess relatively high efficiency and that the combined factors (the nat
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do no
... Show MoreIs the subject of the financial structure of the most important topics for which she received the interests of scientific research in the field of financial management , as it emerged several theories about choosing a financial structure appropriate for the facility and behavior change funding them , and in spite of that there is no agreement on a specific theory answer various questions in this regard , and a special issue of the financial structure optimization.
The objective of the research was to identify the most important theories of the structure of modern financial theory has been to focus on the capture of financial firms in two different stages of their life cycle , so-called growth and ma
... Show MoreThis research aims to solve the problem of selection using clustering algorithm, in this research optimal portfolio is formation using the single index model, and the real data are consisting from the stocks Iraqi Stock Exchange in the period 1/1/2007 to 31/12/2019. because the data series have missing values ,we used the two-stage missing value compensation method, the knowledge gap was inability the portfolio models to reduce The estimation error , inaccuracy of the cut-off rate and the Treynor ratio combine stocks into the portfolio that caused to decline in their performance, all these problems required employing clustering technic to data mining and regrouping it within clusters with similar characteristics to outperform the portfolio
... Show MoreIn this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .
Maulticollinearity is a problem that always occurs when two or more predictor variables are correlated with each other. consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with biased estimates results, There are several methods which are proposed to handle this problem including the method To address a problem and method To address a problem , In this research a comparisons are employed between the biased method and unbiased method with Bayesian using Gamma distribution method addition to Ordinary Least Square metho
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