The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
يھدف البحث الى اجراء تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيــع ويبل ذي المعلمتين بالطرائـق المعلميــة والمتمثلة بـ (NWLSM,RRXM,RRYM,MOM,MLM (، وكذلك اجراء تقدير لدالة المعولية بالطرائق الالمعلمية والمتمثلة بـ . (EM, PLEM, EKMEM, WEKM, MKMM, WMR, MMO, MMT) وتم استخدام اسلوب المحاكاة لغرض المقارنة باستخدام حجوم عينات مختلفة (20,40,60,80,100) والوصول الى افضل الطرائق في التقدير باالعتماد على المؤشر االحصائي متوسط مربعات الخطا التكاملي (IMSE(، وقد توصل البحث الى
... Show MoreThe research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from
... Show MoreThis research has investigated the effect of the customer knowledge management CKM in sustainable promotion SP. The research conducted a quantitative method on a sample of employees in the Al-Furat State Company for Chemical Industries affiliated / the Ministry of Industry and Minerals in Iraq. The research’s problem presented a set of questions, one of the most important was (is there a relation and impact between the dimensions of customer knowledge management and sustainable promotion). The aim of the research is to identify the extent to which customer knowledge management activities are applied in understudy organization. This research adopted the questionnaire as a main instrument to collect information from (140) participants in
... Show MoreIn today's cities, it is easy to see large numbers of vacant lands and unused abandoned sites in downtown areas that are not only ugly but also potentially becoming fertile ground for criminal activities that endanger residents and visitors and contribute to the further degradation of neighborhoods,
can provide reuse of spaces Neglected opportunities to reshape the appearance of the city and to improve the city center for its users that the presence of many neglected sites, whether they were abandoned buildings or sites for destroyed buildings in Mosul after the war on ISIS and with large areas amid the urban fabric led to the emergence of the research problem is (lack of urban planning to reactivate abandoned sites within the ci
... Show MoreAbstract:
The research aims to diagnose the relationship between the environmental tax and the development of the sustainable social dimension, where the environmental tax is considered a tool in promoting sustainable development according to its economic, social and environmental dimensions through the application of legislation and instructions for environmental protection, and that imposing an environmental tax will have a clear impact in achieving the dimensions of sustainable development and compliance With regard to the social dimension, the research relied on the financial data for the years (2019-2022) in obtaining information. The research reached a set of results, the most prominent of which was
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