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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Suggested Model for Using a Students Attendance Management Information Systems/ A Case Study In Lebanese French University/ Erbil
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This study aims to design unified  electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed  the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of  using papers to count absence,  with  a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.

            In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Evaluation of a PID and a Fuzzy PID Controllers Designed for Controlling a Simulated Quadcopter Rotational Dynamics Model
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This work is concerned with designing two types of controllers, a PID and a Fuzzy PID, to be used
for flying and stabilizing a quadcopter. The designed controllers have been tuned, tested, and
compared using two performance indices which are the Integral Square Error (ISE) and the Integral
Absolute Error (IAE), and also some response characteristics like the rise time, overshoot, settling
time, and the steady state error. To try and test the controllers, a quadcopter mathematical model has
been developed. The model concentrated on the rotational dynamics of the quadcopter, i.e. the roll,
pitch, and yaw variables. The work has been simulated with “MATLAB”. To make testing the
simulated model and the controllers m

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Estimate Raw Water Salinity for the Tigris River for a Long Time Using a Mathematical Model
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Abstract<p>The measurement data of the raw water quality of Tigris River were statistically analyzed to measure the salinity value in relation to the selected raw water quality parameters. The analyzed data were collected from five water treatment plants (WTPs) assembled alongside of the Tigris River in Baghdad: Al-Karkh, Al-Karama, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda for the period from 2015 to 2021. The selected parameters are total dissolved solid (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature. The main objective of this research is to predicate a mathematical model using SPSS software to calculate the value of salinity along the river, in addition, the effect of electrical conductivi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Fear Effect on a Food Chain Prey-Predator Model Incorporating a Prey Refuge and Harvesting
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Abstract<p>In this paper, we investigate the impact of fear on a food chain mathematical model with prey refuge and harvesting. The prey species reproduces by to the law of logistic growth. The model is adapted from version of the Holling type-II prey-first predator and Lotka-Volterra for first predator-second predator model. The conditions, have been examined that assurance the existence of equilibrium points. Uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the system have been achieve. The local and global dynamical behaviors are discussed and analyzed. In the end, numerical simulations are confirmed the theoretical results that obtained and to display the effectiveness of varying each parameter</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 21 2024
Journal Name
Nauchi From
METAPHORICAL APPROACH TO DESCRIBING THE MAIN CHARACTER IN THE NOVEL OF THE RUSSIAN WRITER L. ULITSKAYA "SINCERELY YOUR SHURIK": MEANING AND INFLUENCE
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The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors as one of the main means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel “Sincerely Yours Shurik” to form the image of the main hero in the novel. The main purpose of the article is to consider metaphors, which helped the author to form the image of the main character Shurik in the text space through the stages of his life path, closely related to the people around him, who is always happy to be useful (hence the title "Sincerely Yours"), among which the female images of his relatives, girlfriends and others stand out as a special layer in the narrative. And in the course of the study, the following tasks were solved: the metaphors that make up the image of the

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2012
Journal Name
مجلة الإدارة والاقتصاد
مقارنة لبعض الطرائق المعلمية واللامعلمية لتقدير دالة المعولية باستخدام المحاكاة
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يھدف البحث الى اجراء تقدير دالة المعولية لتوزيــع ويبل ذي المعلمتين بالطرائـق المعلميــة والمتمثلة بـ (NWLSM,RRXM,RRYM,MOM,MLM (، وكذلك اجراء تقدير لدالة المعولية بالطرائق الالمعلمية والمتمثلة بـ . (EM, PLEM, EKMEM, WEKM, MKMM, WMR, MMO, MMT) وتم استخدام اسلوب المحاكاة لغرض المقارنة باستخدام حجوم عينات مختلفة (20,40,60,80,100) والوصول الى افضل الطرائق في التقدير باالعتماد على المؤشر االحصائي متوسط مربعات الخطا التكاملي (IMSE(، وقد توصل البحث الى

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 04 2014
Journal Name
مجلة كلية مدينة العلم الجامعة
تقدير دالة المعولية بالطرائق اللامعلمية في حالة البيانات المراقبة "المتجمعة"
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Dramatic function of temporal variables in the feature film
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Time and space are indispensable basics in cinematic art. They contain the characters, their actions and the nature of events, as well as their expressive abilities to express many ideas and information. However, the process of collecting space and time in one term is space-time, and it is one of Einstein’s theoretical propositions, who sees that Time is an added dimension within the place, so the study here differs from the previous one, and this is what the researcher determined in the topic of his research, which was titled (The Dramatic Function of Space-Time Variables in the Narrative Film), Which included the following: The research problem, which crystallized in the following question: What is the dramatic function of the tempor

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
2021 International Conference On Computing And Communications Applications And Technologies (i3cat)
Parallel Hybrid String Matching Algorithm Using CUDA API Function
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Form and function in the design of intellectual toys
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Playing is the only common language among children in every place and time, to the fact that what distinguishes the children is their quest to play and fun way innate, not acquired, which is expressed with the child really is one of the rights. And play a key entrance to the growth of the child mentally, intellectually and cognitively and not for the child emotionally and socially just. In the play the child begins to identify and classify objects and learn concepts and circulate among themselves on a linguistic basis. Activity here and play a major role in leading the linguistic development of the child in the composition has the communication skills.

The Games (especially intellectual ones) Whatever the cause of the development

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