The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Coaches and analysts face a significant challenge of inaccurate estimation when analyzing Men's 100 Meter Sprint Performance, particularly when there is limited data available. This necessitates the use of modern technologies to address the problem of inaccurate estimation. Unfortunately, current methods used to estimate Men's 100 Meter Sprint Performance indexes in Iraq are ineffective, highlighting the need to adopt new and advanced technologies that are fast, accurate, and flexible. Therefore, the objective of this study was to utilize an advanced method known as artificial neural networks to estimate four key indexes: Accelerate First of 10 meters, Speed Rate, Time First of 10 meters, and Reaction Time. The application of artifi
... Show MoreThe article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors as one of the main means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel “Sincerely Yours Shurik” to form the image of the main hero in the novel. The main purpose of the article is to consider metaphors, which helped the author to form the image of the main character Shurik in the text space through the stages of his life path, closely related to the people around him, who is always happy to be useful (hence the title "Sincerely Yours"), among which the female images of his relatives, girlfriends and others stand out as a special layer in the narrative. And in the course of the study, the following tasks were solved: the metaphors that make up the image of the
... Show MoreElectronic properties including (bond length, energy gap, HOMO, LUMO and density of state) as well as spectroscopic properties such like infrared, Raman scattering, force constant, reduced mass and longitu- dinal optical mode as a function of frequency are based on size and concentration of the molecular and nanostructures of aluminum nitride ALN, boron nitride BN and AlxB7-XN7 as nanotubes has calculated using Ab –initio approximation method dependent on density functional theory and generalized gradient approximation. The geometrical structure are calculated by using Gauss view 05 as a complementary program. Shows the energy gap of ALN, BN and AlxB7-XN7 as a function of the total number of atoms , start from smallest molecule to reached
... Show MoreIn this paper, we investigate the connection between the hierarchical models and the power prior distribution in quantile regression (QReg). Under specific quantile, we develop an expression for the power parameter ( ) to calibrate the power prior distribution for quantile regression to a corresponding hierarchical model. In addition, we estimate the relation between the and the quantile level via hierarchical model. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with real data example.
The cinematic costume is a qualitative element that transcends the direct function of it. It is an active personality that can become a brand of publicity and transformative signs that dismantle the intellectual system of acts, characters and events and reconstructs them aesthetically. For this reason, the researcher identified the subject of his research with the following address: (cinematic costumes between the function of publicity and Semiotics Significance). The researcher divided the research into the following: The methodological framework. The theoretical framework: The researcher divided it into three topics: the first topic: publicity. Function and concept. The second topic: fashion text and significance. Th
... Show MoreObjectives: To assess general social factors for elderly in geriatric homes in Jordan.
Methodology: The study was conducted for clients residing in elderly homes. A purposive sample of (155)
residents were selected. Social resource scale by (Duck University Center) called (OARA) older adult resources
and services was used as tool for data collection. The questions extract data about family structure, patterns of
friends and visiting, availability of a confident, satisfaction with the degree of social interaction and availability
of a helper in the event of illness or disability and the program of trips in the houses.
Results: The findings revealed that the life expectancy for women is greater than for men. In respect to
The research deals with the structures of the contemporary travelers' buildings in particular, and which is a functional complex installations where flexibility, technical and stereotypes play an important role as well as the human values These facilities must represent physiological and psychological comfort for travelers. TThose are facilities where architectural form plays a distinguished role in reversing the specialty and identity of the building. Hence the importance of the subject has been in forced, as a result for the need to study these facilities and to determine the impact and affects by the surrounding environment, to the extent of the urban, environmental, urban, social, and psychological levels. The importance of the resea
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