The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Heritage is considered as the civilization and cultural wealth accumulated over the . centuries, whereas architectural heritage is the physical witness of that civilization. Despite the fact that architectural heritage is the most important effort for economic development of any communit,، it suffers from deterioration and neglection especially in the Arab communities. Recently awareness has increased about the importance of investing on architectural heritage generally and sustainable investment particularly. The goal of investment process in heritage areas is to revive economic activity in addition to attempt to revive the heritage and community values. Research aims to examine the relationship between sustainable investment and
... Show MoreThe study of the concepts of "democracy" and "human rights" and their impact on development, has taken a prominent place in the context of general political and cultural concerns, or in specialized studies even though researchers and scholars do not agree on defining the concepts: Democracy, Human Rights, Development or deriving a global definition hindering them, and that because of the importance of this topic, which proceeds from a number of considerations standing in the forefront, of which:
First: What the world witnesses today in the first decade of this century of consecration of the unipolar theory, trying to give its concepts and perceptions through the law ((excessive force)) to the power of international
... Show MoreThe research discusses the formal transformation in urban structure, all the cities around the world have undergone a series of formal transformations, resulting in radical transformations to their functions. And to calculate this transformation the descriptive analytical method was applied to this research. First, local urban management data and Landsat-9 visual data were used after processing by GIS. Then, the data were processed mathematically based on their engineering sequences. The aims of this research were as follows: to explore the formal transformations in cities, their dimensions and their consequences and impacts; to identify the underlying causes of their occurrence by deriving realistic results from trends in such degrees of t
... Show MoreNegotiations are distinguished in that they are an easy and simple means between the conflicting parties, and it is an effective means at the same time as the conflicting parties seek understanding on the most effective way to solve their dispute, but negotiations are not always appropriate to resolve international disputes, especially when there is a disparity in power between the negotiating countries, or when it is missing Goodwill, or even when one of the parties is absent or less flexible, and the internal circumstances of one of the conflicting countries may play a negative or positive role in the success of the negotiations, away from the influence of the role of external variables in that, a
... Show MoreIt is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul
... Show MoreMeasurement of construction performance is essential to a clear image of the present situation. This monitoring by the management team is necessary to identify locations where performance is exceptionally excellent or poor and to identify the primary reasons so that the lessons gained may be exported to the firm and its progress strengthened. This research attempts to construct an integrated mathematical model utilizing one of the recent methodologies for dealing with the fuzzy representation of experts’ knowledge and judgment considering hesitancy called spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SFAHP) method to assess the contractor’s performance per the project performance pa
This study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator’s refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points’ local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the per
... Show MoreThe novel has recently received great attention from readers and before them writers, due to the role it is playing, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is art or creativity, there must be a criticism of its own, and this criticism is certainly no less important than its owner, so we find There are critics who have their distinguished literary position in following up the narrative development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements, including Professor Fadel Thamer, and whoever wants to approach an element of the novel as an explorer, he must stand on the visions of this critic about it, and this is what made us take the element (personality) Tracking the most important opinions of the critic
... Show MoreThe European Unit has never been affected by a serious phenomena as the phenomena of the advancing of the far right parties. Though these parties vary in their impact in their original countries, they agree on one important issue which is the deconstruction of the European unit and limiting its supernational powers. These increasing popular parties aim at more national independence in decision making away from the decisions taken by Brussels. Moreover, they criticize the financial and administrative corruption accompanied many of the rescuing procedures directed for example towards countries like Greece and Spain during the international economic crisis. This failure nourishes many of the negative feelings against the European unit which
... Show MoreNaber and toning in the modern Arab poetry Mahmoud Darwish, a model