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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Bayesian Inference for Reliability Function of Gompertz Distribution
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Abstract<p>In this paper, some Bayes estimators of the reliability function of Gompertz distribution have been derived based on generalized weighted loss function. In order to get a best understanding of the behaviour of Bayesian estimators, a non-informative prior as well as an informative prior represented by exponential distribution is considered. Monte-Carlo simulation have been employed to compare the performance of different estimates for the reliability function of Gompertz distribution based on Integrated mean squared errors. It was found that Bayes estimators with exponential prior information under the generalized weighted loss function were generally better than the estimators based o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 10 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Magnetic Lens Design Using Analytical Target Field Function
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Analytical field target function has been considered to represent the axial magnetic field distribution of double polepiece symmetric magnetic lens. In this article, with aid of the proposed target function, the syntheses procedure is dependent. The effect of the main two coffectin optimization parameters on the lens field distribution, polepieces shape, and the objective focal prosperities for lenses operated under zero magnification mode has been studied. The results have shown that the objective properties evaluated in sense of the inverse design procedure are in an excellent correspondence with that of analysis approach. Where the optical properties enhance as the field distribution of the electron lens distributed along a narrow axi

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Application
Suggested methods for prediction using semiparametric regression function
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Ferritin is a key organizer of protected deregulation, particularly below risky hyperferritinemia, by straight immune-suppressive and pro-inflammatory things. , We conclude that there is a significant association between levels of ferritin and the harshness of COVID-19. In this paper we introduce a semi- parametric method for prediction by making a combination between NN and regression models. So, two methodologies are adopted, Neural Network (NN) and regression model in design the model; the data were collected from مستشفى دار التمريض الخاص for period 11/7/2021- 23/7/2021, we have 100 person, With COVID 12 Female & 38 Male out of 50, while 26 Female & 24 Male non COVID out of 50. The input variables of the NN m

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Publication Date
Thu May 25 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Modulation Function Calculation For Optical Semiconductor Fractal Modulator
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   The research  includes the study and calculation of the modulation function of Optical Semiconductor Fractal  Modulator and spatial frequency for different values of Silicon modulator transmittance percentage(10%,35%,45%,58%),it found the relation between the modulation function of Silicon and spatial frequency, the exponential relation of all values of the transmittance , the best state of modulation function when the value of transmittance is T=58% ,also the research includes the study of the relation of transmittance with different values of refractive index of Silicon . So the research involves building a computer program of output data which would relate to fractal optical modulation made of semiconductor mate

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Impact of Gliclazide Modified Release or Glimepiride as Add-on Therapy to Metformin on Glycemic and Oxidative Stress Parameters in Type 2 Diabetic Patients
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Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a condition characterized by an elevation of oxidative stress, which has been implicated in diabetic progression and its vascular complications. Aim: Assessing the impact of gliclazide modified release (MR) versus glimepiride on oxidative stress markers, glycemic indices, lipid profile, and estimated glomerular filtration rate in uncontrolled type 2 diabetic patients on metformin monotherapy. Methods: This was an observational comparative study conducted in Thi-Qar specialized diabetic, endocrine, and metabolism center. Sixty-six patients were randomized into two groups based on the addition of the sulfonylureas (SUs). Group 1 (33 patients) was on gliclazide MR, whereas Group 2 (33 patients)

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 15 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Shear bond strength of different lingual buttons bonded to wet and dry enamel surfaces with resin modified glass ionomer cement (in vitro comparative study)
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Background: This study was aimed to investigate the effect of three lingual button (Nickel free / rectangular base, Nickel free / round base and Composite) and bonding environment, wet and dry enamel surface, on: the shear bond strength (SBS) of light and self-cured Resin Modified Glass Ionomer Cements, and the debonding failure sites. Materials and method: One hundred twenty no-carious, free of cracks maxillary first premolar teeth were selected. Three types of orthodontic lingual buttons were used in this study: Nickel free / rectangular base, Nickel free / round base and Composite buttons. The teeth were divided into two groups of sixty teeth each. One group was used for testing the chemically cured GC Fuji Ortho Resin modified Glass Io

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Mathematical Analysis of Peristaltic Pumps for Fene-P model subject to Hall and Joule impact
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    A mathematical model is developed to discuss the impact of the Hall current and the Joule heating on the peristaltic flux of finitely extensible nonlinear elastic Peterlin (FENE-P) fluid in a tapered tube with mild stenosis. The fluid movement  along the wall surface resulted from the sinusoidal wave flowing with constant speed. Conditions of velocity and thermal slip are applied. Lubrication approximation is adopted to modify the governing flow problem. To discover the solution to a system of equations, the regular perturbation approach is used. The effects of the different physical parameters are debated and graphically shown in a set of figures. It is discovered that as the Hall current parameter is increased and the Hartman n

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Desalination And Water Treatment
Extraction model to remove antibiotics from aqueous solution by emulsion and Pickering emulsion liquid membrane
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Proposed Mechanism for Financial Reporting on Sustainable Investment and Its Role in Achieving Value Added - Applied in the Iraqi Midland Refineries Company-
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The research aims to develop a proposed mechanism for financial reporting on sustainable investment that takes the specificity of these investments.

To achieve this goal, the researcher used (what if scenario) where the future financial statements were prepared for the year 2026, after completion of the sustainable project and operation, as the project requires four years to be completed.

The researcher relied on the results of the researchers collected from various modern sources relevant to the research topic and published on the internet, and the financial data and information obtained to assess the reality of the company's activity and its environmental, social, and economic i

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 21 2024
Journal Name
Nauchi From
METAPHORICAL APPROACH TO DESCRIBING THE MAIN CHARACTER IN THE NOVEL OF THE RUSSIAN WRITER L. ULITSKAYA "SINCERELY YOUR SHURIK": MEANING AND INFLUENCE
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The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors as one of the main means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel “Sincerely Yours Shurik” to form the image of the main hero in the novel. The main purpose of the article is to consider metaphors, which helped the author to form the image of the main character Shurik in the text space through the stages of his life path, closely related to the people around him, who is always happy to be useful (hence the title "Sincerely Yours"), among which the female images of his relatives, girlfriends and others stand out as a special layer in the narrative. And in the course of the study, the following tasks were solved: the metaphors that make up the image of the

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