The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this work, satellite images classification for Al Chabaish marshes and the area surrounding district in (Dhi Qar) province for years 1990,2000 and 2015 using two software programming (MATLAB 7.11 and ERDAS imagine 2014) is presented. Proposed supervised classification method (Modified Vector Quantization) using MATLAB software and supervised classification method (Maximum likelihood Classifier) using ERDAS imagine have been used, in order to get most accurate results and compare these methods. The changes that taken place in year 2000 comparing with 1990 and in year 2015 comparing with 2000 are calculated. The results from classification indicated that water and vegetation are decreased, while barren land, alluvial soil and shallow water
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In 2020 one of the researchers in this paper, in his first research, tried to find out the Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I by using the Azzalini method for weighted distributions, which contain three parameters, two of them for scale while the third for shape.This research compared the distribution with two other distributions from the same family; the Standard Pareto Distribution of Type I and the Generalized Pareto Distribution by using the Maximum likelihood estimator which was derived by the researchers for Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I, then the Mont Carlo method was used–that is one of the simulation manners for generating random samples data in different sizes ( n= 10,30,50), and in di
... Show MorePoly(L-lactic acid) (PLLA)/poly(caprolactone) (PCL) and two types of organoclay (OMMT) including a fatty amide and ocatdecylamine montmorillonite (FA-MMT and ODA-MMT) were employed to produce polymer nanocomposites by melt blending. Materials were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), elemental analysis, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Mechanical properties were also investigated for these nanocomposites. The nanocomposites showed increasing mechanical properties and thermal stability. XRD results indicated that the materials formed nanocomposites. SEM morphology showed that increasing content of OMMT reduc
... Show MoreDurability of hot mix asphalt (HMA) against moisture damage is mostly related to asphalt-aggregate adhesion. The objective of this work is to find the effect of nanoclay with montmorillonite (MMT) on Marshall properties and moisture susceptibility of asphalt mixture. Two types of asphalt cement, AC(40-50) and AC(60-70) were modified with 2%, 4% and 6% of Iraqi nanoclay with montmorillonite. The Marshall properties, Tensile strength ratio(TSR) and Index of retained strength(ISR) were determined in this work. The total number of specimens was 216 and the optimum asphalt content was 4.91% and 5% for asphalt cement (40-50) and (60-70) respectively. The results showed that the modification of asphalt cement with MMT led to increase Marsh
... Show MoreNanofluids, liquid suspensions of nanoparticles (Np), are an effective agent to alter the wettability of oil-wet reservoirs to water-wet thus promoting hydrocarbon recovery. It can also have an application to more efficient carbon storage. We present a series of contact angle (θ) investigations on initially oil-wet calcite surfaces to quantify the performance of hydrophilic silica nanoparticles for wettability alteration. These tests are conducted at typical in-situ high pressure (CO2), temperature and salinity conditions. A high pressure–temperature (P/T) optical cell with a regulated tilted surface was used to measure the advancing and receding contact angles at the desired conditions. The results showed that silica nanofluids can alte
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The article critically analyzes traditional translation models. The most influential models of translation in the second half of the 20th century have been mentioned, among which the theory of formal and dynamic equivalence, the theory of regular correspondences, informative, situational-denotative, functional-pragmatic theory of communication levels have been considered. The selected models have been analyzed from the point of view of the universality of their use for different types and types of translation, as well as the ability to comprehend the deep links established between the original and the translation.
Аннотация
Novel has recently received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about
... Show MoreIt is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul
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