The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Background: Penetrating Neck Injuries (PNI) management represents a challenge to most surgeons in civilian trauma, in weighing selective versus mandatory exploration of all cases in different circumstances. Data are encouraging surgeons to adopt the former approach.Objectives: The study aims to assess the selective approach in our war and terror time events in Al-Yarmouk teaching hospital.Type of the study:A retrospective study. Methods: Data of patients presented to the Thoracic and Vascular ward in Al-Yarmouk teaching hospital with PNI were assessed retrospectively, from March 2013 to March 2015, and analyzed for epidemiology, mechanism of trauma, management methods, associated organ injuries, complications and mortality. Results: Amon
... Show MoreThe e-news is one of the most important journalistic arts in new media (the Internet). The process of telling the story by the journalist is an important aspect of the communicative process between the users of the internet and the reporter. The electronic news is characterized by having text, fixed images, animations, videos and sound. All these give greater vitality to the communicative process and increase the semiotic dimensions. Also, it makes the narrative process more distinctive and embodied of the elements of the event. This research studies all these aspects and tries to show the distinction between the semiotics of narration and the electronic news.
The article reflects the results of the analysis of the use of metaphors as one of the main means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel “Sincerely Yours Shurik” to form the image of the main hero in the novel. The main purpose of the article is to consider metaphors, which helped the author to form the image of the main character Shurik in the text space through the stages of his life path, closely related to the people around him, who is always happy to be useful (hence the title "Sincerely Yours"), among which the female images of his relatives, girlfriends and others stand out as a special layer in the narrative. And in the course of the study, the following tasks were solved: the metaphors that make up the image of the
... Show MoreIn this paper, we investigate the connection between the hierarchical models and the power prior distribution in quantile regression (QReg). Under specific quantile, we develop an expression for the power parameter ( ) to calibrate the power prior distribution for quantile regression to a corresponding hierarchical model. In addition, we estimate the relation between the and the quantile level via hierarchical model. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with real data example.
Electronic properties including (bond length, energy gap, HOMO, LUMO and density of state) as well as spectroscopic properties such like infrared, Raman scattering, force constant, reduced mass and longitu- dinal optical mode as a function of frequency are based on size and concentration of the molecular and nanostructures of aluminum nitride ALN, boron nitride BN and AlxB7-XN7 as nanotubes has calculated using Ab –initio approximation method dependent on density functional theory and generalized gradient approximation. The geometrical structure are calculated by using Gauss view 05 as a complementary program. Shows the energy gap of ALN, BN and AlxB7-XN7 as a function of the total number of atoms , start from smallest molecule to reached
... Show MoreThe measurement data of the raw water quality of Tigris River were statistically analyzed to measure the salinity value in relation to the selected raw water quality parameters. The analyzed data were collected from five water treatment plants (WTPs) assembled alongside of the Tigris River in Baghdad: Al-Karkh, Al-Karama, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda for the period from 2015 to 2021. The selected parameters are total dissolved solid (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature. The main objective of this research is to predicate a mathematical model using SPSS software to calculate the value of salinity along the river, in addition, the effect of electrical conductivi
In this paper, we investigate the impact of fear on a food chain mathematical model with prey refuge and harvesting. The prey species reproduces by to the law of logistic growth. The model is adapted from version of the Holling type-II prey-first predator and Lotka-Volterra for first predator-second predator model. The conditions, have been examined that assurance the existence of equilibrium points. Uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the system have been achieve. The local and global dynamical behaviors are discussed and analyzed. In the end, numerical simulations are confirmed the theoretical results that obtained and to display the effectiveness of varying each parameter
This study aims to design unified electronic information system to manage students attendance in Lebanese French university/Erbil, as a system that simplifies the process of entering and counting the students absence, and generate absence reports to expel students who passed the acceptable limit of being absent, and by that we can replace the traditional way of using papers to count absence, with a complete electronically system for managing students attendance, in a way that makes the results accurate and unchangeable by the students.
In order to achieve the study's objectives, we designed an information syst
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