The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Shallow foundations are usually used for structures with light to moderate loads where the soil underneath can carry them. In some cases, soil strength and/or other properties are not adequate and require improvement using one of the ground improvement techniques. Stone column is one of the common improvement techniques in which a column of stone is installed vertically in clayey soils. Stone columns are usually used to increase soil strength and to accelerate soil consolidation by acting as vertical drains. Many researches have been done to estimate the behavior of the improved soil. However, none of them considered the effect of stone column geometry on the behavior of the circular footing. In this research, finite ele
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the impact of the selective model in acquiring the concepts of Kurdish grammar among female students in the eighth grade, and to achieve the goal of research, the researcher selected the experimental design with partial control and dimensional testing; the sample includes basic schools in the Chim district of Chamal/ Sulaymaniyah and randomly selected the basic school (Maha Bad) to be the field of application of the experiment and the random drawing method was chosen: two out of three sections and the number of students of the two sections is (75) students; section (C) represents the experimental group that studied the rules according to the selective model and its number is (37) students, while secti
... Show MoreOne of the globalization results is (VAT) , so it is important to consider its results and impact on the tax system.
The Iraqi economy having wittnisd an acute transition period , still in need for a better care in aim to back it, especialy from the tax system.
The research is concerned with the (VAT) and its details –And for five chapters all the problomes connect are displayed .But yet the new system does not comply with the modern development and this is one of the defects of (VAT) in Iraq.
The history of (VAT)was also studied mentiorned and studied.
As a conclusion (VAT) is one of the m
... Show MoreThe development that solar energy will have in the next years needs a reliable estimation of available solar energy resources. Several empirical models have been developed to calculate global solar radiation using various parameters such as extraterrestrial radiation, sunshine hours, albedo, maximum temperature, mean temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, evaporation, total perceptible water, number of rainy days, and altitude and latitude. In present work i) First part has been calculated solar radiation from the daily values of the hours of sun duration using Angstrom model over the Iraq for at July 2017. The second part has been mapping the distribution of so
In this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending on the mean square error criteria in where the estimation methods that were used are (Generalized Least Squares, M Robust, and Laplace), and for different sizes of samples (20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120). The M robust method is demonstrated the best metho
... Show MoreAsthma is a chronic inflammatory disease that involves the narrowing of the lung airways and excessive mucus production. Resveratrol (RES), a polyphenolic stilbene, is known to control asthmatic attacks via different molecular mechanisms. However, no studies have examined the effect of resveratrol on the microbiome in the ovalbumin (OVA)-induced asthma mouse model. In this study, we induced asthma in BALB/c mice by injecting OVA followed by 7 days treatment with RES. Plethysmography showed that the expiratory resistance in the lung tissue was significantly reduced in the RES treated group, while mean volume, peak expiratory flow, and frequency of respiration was increased. Histopathol
The accretion circumstellar disk of young stars and the Brown dwarf plays an essential role in the formation and evaluation of the planet. Our main work in this paper is to investigate the geometrical shape model for the protoplanetary disk around one of the Brown Dwarfs. The photometric measurements for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4 were extracted from the Vizier archive. We used a numerical simulation to build a model of the spectral energy distribution of our target CFHT-BD-Tau 4. The spectral energy distribution model was fitted with observational data for the brown dwarf CFHT-BD-Tau 4. A transitional disk has been assumed around CFHT-BD-Tau 4. We obtained physical properties of the two disks and the size of the gap between them
... Show MoreThe research aims to derive the efficient industrial plans for Al – shaheed public company under risk by using Target MOTAD as a linear alternative model for the quadratic programming models.
The results showed that there had been a sort of (trade- off) between risk and the expected gross margins. And if the studied company strives to get high gross margin, it should tolerate risk and vice versa. So the management of Al- Shaheed Company to be invited to apply the suitable procedures in the production process, in order to get efficient plans that improves it's performance .
The present study develops the sorption model for simulating the effects of pH and temperature on the uptake of cadmium from contaminated water using waste foundry sand (WFS) by allowing the variation of the maximum adsorption capacity and affinity constant. The presence of two acidic functional groups with the same or different affinity is the basis in the derivation of the two models; Model 1 and Model 2 respectively. The developed Bi-Langmuir model with different affinity (Model 2) has a remarkable ability in the description of process under consideration with coefficient of determination > 0.9838 and sum of squared error < 0.08514. This result is proved by FTIR test where the weak acids responsible of cadmium ions removal
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