The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
Abstract:
Most of the studies on this subject, small industrial projects, by researchers and scholars in the economic field show the great and increasing importance of doing this kind of projects, the extent of which can be determined by the contribution of these projects to indicators and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. So this research aims to show the extent of the economic contribution of projects in selected international experiences and in the Iraqi economy. As international experiences have provided the opportunity for the progress and growth of small projects in their economies, which led to an increase in the contribution of these projects in the recruitment of economically active manpower, in added
... Show MoreThe Yemen Kings and gaverners allered notable services to the pilgrims, who
were in their way to perform the pilgrimage to Mecca. Among them Al-Hysen Ibn
Salama (dead 384, Aih). The governer of Al- Zeadiea state, who concern about
pilgrimage route from its beginning at Hudrumot to its end at Mecca Al Makruma, the
distant was estimated by 60th days to pass the way he also eastablished asystem of
water “artesian wells” as long as the pilgrimage way also setting up large Mosqeses
and Marking out the way of the caravans of pilgrimage to save these caravans from
lossing the right way, he setting up under ground water chanal started from Arafat to
holy Mecca in order to ensure water supplies for the erea. This proje
This research dealt with shedding light on the nature of material misrepresentations, in addition to knowing the extent to which the quality of accounting information systems contributes to reducing material misrepresentations On the theoretical side, a number of sources were relied upon in dealing with the research problem and presentation of the topic, while in the practical side, it was relied on the questionnaire form, where the research sample was (accountants and auditors), where 50 forms were distributed and 50 were received, and the data was analyzed and hypotheses tested through the program Statistical spss to show the relationship between the variables. The research reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which is t
... Show MorePortable and stationary electrical generators became quite popular in Iraq soon after the shortage in national electrical
energy after 2003. Multi step risk assessment process is used in this study in the assessment of risks caused by
contamination of indoor air by lead particles emitted from domestic electrical generators. Two portable electrical
generators are tested under controlled indoor conditions (Radial LG (0.9 keV) fueled with benzene and oil and TigMax
(3 keV), fueled with benzene only). Lead particles in air were sampled by using portable dust sampler (Sniffer, L-30).
The atmospheric particulate sampling process is carried out in a flat located in the first floor of a three stories building
located in Baghdad
One of the challenging issues encountered during drilling operations is the lost circulation. Numerous issues might arise because of losses, such as wasting of time and higher drilling cost. Several types of lost circulation materials have been developed and are being used to limit mud losses and avoid associated issues. Each solution has benefits and drawbacks.
In this study, a core flooding test was performed to study the effectiveness of polyacrylamide (PAM) granular gel on the reduction of the circulation lost. One common type of fracture characteristic is fractures with tips, commonly known as partially open fracture (POF). However, PAM gel therapy in POFs received little attention in prior research. Models of partly open fra
... Show MoreThis research deals with the role that the media can play in spreading awareness, culture and sound behavior among members of society, due to its ability to reach the largest number of individuals; its wide spread within society; and the moral responsibility of the media in consolidating the components of civil peace. The media works on forming intellectual convictions and behavioral attitudes by publishing opinions and ideas, introducing them to people's awareness and enhancing them in the practice of their daily lives, he was its media medium. Sociologists and psychologists confirm that the media. The significance of the research comes due to the broadening of violence and sectarian fighting; the absence of a culture of civil social pe
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to determine the ability of water treatment system (Vortisand) to reduce some chemical and physical properties for tigris river raw water, It consisted of turbidity, electrical conductivity, pH, total hardness, calcium Hardness as well as temperature in order to determine the unit`s efficiency for reducing their concentration as compared to those in the water produced by some classical potable water projects (Dora and Wathba) in Baghdad. Samples were collected during the cold months (December 2016 and January 2017) and during the hot months (May and June 2017). The results showed that this system has the ability to reduce some properties such as turbidity, the values were 215NTU in raw water and decreased to NTU
... Show More
Iraqi conventional gasoline characterized by its low octane number not exceed 82 and high lead and sulfur content. In this paper tri-component or ternary, blends of gasoline, ethanol, and methanol presented as an alternative fuel for Iraqi conventional gasoline. The study conducted by using GEM blend that equals E85 blend in octane rating. The used GEM selected from Turner, 2010 collection. G37 E20 M43 (37% gasoline + 20% ethanol+ 43% methanol) was chosen as GEM in present study. This blend used in multi-cylinder Mercedes engine, and the engine performance, and emitted emissions compared with that produced by a gasoline engine.
The results show that this blend can formulate with available Iraqi pro
... Show MoreJournal of Theoretical and Applied Information Technology is a peer-reviewed electronic research papers & review papers journal with aim of promoting and publishing original high quality research dealing with theoretical and scientific aspects in all disciplines of IT (Informaiton Technology
The parameter and system reliability in stress-strength model are estimated in this paper when the system contains several parallel components that have strengths subjects to common stress in case when the stress and strengths follow Generalized Inverse Rayleigh distribution by using different Bayesian estimation methods. Monte Carlo simulation introduced to compare among the proposal methods based on the Mean squared Error criteria.