The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
There is a great operational risk to control the day-to-day management in water treatment plants, so water companies are looking for solutions to predict how the treatment processes may be improved due to the increased pressure to remain competitive. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of water treatment processes with the primary motivation to provide tools that can be used to predict the performance of the treatment to enable better control of uncertainty and risk. This research included choosing the most important variables affecting quality standards using the correlation test. According to this test, it was found that the important parameters of raw water: Total Hardn
In this paper, we employ the maximum likelihood estimator in addition to the shrinkage estimation procedure to estimate the system reliability (
This article examines and proposes a dietary chain model with a prey shelter and alternative food sources. It is anticipated that mid-predators' availability is positively correlated with the number of refuges. The solution's existence and exclusivity are examined. It is established that the solution is bounded. It is explored whether all potential equilibrium points exist and are locally stable. The Lyapunov approach is used to investigate the equilibrium points' worldwide stability. Utilizing a Sotomayor theorem application, local bifurcation is studied. Numerical simulation is used to better comprehend the dynamics of the model and define the control set of parameters.
The researcher attempts to examine Barman model in acquiring the historical concepts among fourth-grade students at literary classrooms. To this end, the researcher held the null hypothesis, there is no significant difference between the experimental groups who was taught based on Barman model and the control group that taught based on the traditional method in acquiring the historical concepts on the post-test. To testify the effectiveness of Barman model, the researcher administered a questionnaire included (60) items on bunch of female-students who were selected from al-khamaeal preparatory school in al-hurriyah district in Baghdad. The author utilized different statistical tools to analyze the collected data. &
... Show MoreArcHydro is a model developed for building hydrologic information systems to synthesize geospatial and temporal water resources data that support hydrologic modeling and analysis. Raster-based digital elevation models (DEMs) play an important role in distributed hydrologic modeling supported by geographic information systems (GIS). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data have been used to derive hydrological features, which serve as inputs to various models. Currently, elevation data are available from several major sources and at different spatial resolutions. Detailed delineation of drainage networks is the first step for many natural resource management studies. Compared with interpretation from aerial photographs or topographic maps, auto
... Show MoreIn this paper, a mathematical model consisting of the prey- predator model with treatment and disease infection in prey population is proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analyses of all possible equilibrium points are studied. Numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the global dynamical behavior of the system.
The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on education models was mainly through the expansion of technology use in the different educational programs. Earlier impact of COVID-19 was manifested in the complete and sudden transition to distance education regardless of institution preparedness status. Gradually, many institutions are moving back to on-campus face-to-face education. However, others including all higher education institutions in Iraq are adopting the hybrid education model. This report presents part of the end of semester evaluation survey conducted at the University of Baghdad College of Pharmacy for the Spring 2021 semester. The survey aims to address points of strength and weakness associated with the hybrid education model and spe
... Show MoreGenerally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the
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Characterized by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) on Maximum Likelihood for the greatest possible way that the exact moments are known , which means that it can be found, while the other method they are unknown, but approximations to their biases correct to 0(n-1) can be obtained by standard methods. In our research expressions for approximations to the biases of the ML estimators (the regression coefficients and scale parameter) for linear (type 1) Extreme Value Regression Model for Largest Values are presented by using the advanced approach depends on finding the first derivative, second and third.
The research included five sections containing the first section on the introduction o research and its importance and was addressed to the importance of the game of gymnastic and skilled parallel bars effectiveness and the importance of biochemical variables, either the research problem that there is a difference in learning this skill and difficulty in learning may be one of the most important reasons are falling and injury Has a negative impact on the performance and lack of sense of movement of is one of the obstacles in the completion of the skill and the goal of research to design a device that helps in the development of biochemical changes to skill of rear vault dismount with one-half twist on parallel bars in gymnastics . And the n
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