The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The General Company for Iraqi Cement is regarded as one of the companies that contribute to support the Iraqi economy. It contributes to provide the material of cement which fulfils the consumer and investment need in the markets in competitive prices and not to resort to the importing of the cement from abroad. That would save a great share of the purchase parity of the poor sectors of society. The estimation of production function will contribute to putting the company.
The application functions of the standard production of benefit critical to clarify the actual relationship between production & its components, & allow to clarify the i
... Show MoreEach phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu
... Show MoreThe need for an efficient method to find the furthermost appropriate document corresponding to a particular search query has become crucial due to the exponential development in the number of papers that are now readily available to us on the web. The vector space model (VSM) a perfect model used in “information retrieval”, represents these words as a vector in space and gives them weights via a popular weighting method known as term frequency inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). In this research, work has been proposed to retrieve the most relevant document focused on representing documents and queries as vectors comprising average term term frequency inverse sentence frequency (TF-ISF) weights instead of representing them as v
... Show MoreThe ultimate goal of any sale contract is to maximize the combined returns of the parties, knowing that these returns are not realized (in long-term contracts) except in the final stages of the contract. Therefore, this requires the parties to the contract to leave some elements open, including the price, because the adoption of a fixed price and inflexible will not be appropriate to meet their desires when contracting, especially with ignorance of matters beyond their will and may affect the market conditions, and the possibility of modifying the fixed price through The elimination is very limited, especially when the parties to the contract are equally in terms of economic strength. Hence, in order to respond to market uncertainties, the
... Show MoreCrime is considered as an unlawful activity of all kinds and it is punished by law. Crimes have an impact on a society's quality of life and economic development. With a large rise in crime globally, there is a necessity to analyze crime data to bring down the rate of crime. This encourages the police and people to occupy the required measures and more effectively restricting the crimes. The purpose of this research is to develop predictive models that can aid in crime pattern analysis and thus support the Boston department's crime prevention efforts. The geographical location factor has been adopted in our model, and this is due to its being an influential factor in several situations, whether it is traveling to a specific area or livin
... Show MoreThe topic of the research tagged (narrative structure and its impact on building open and closed endings in the fictional film) is summarized by studying the mechanism of employing closed and open endings in the fictional film. novelist, then the need for it, as well as the objectives of the research and clarifying its limits as well as its importance. Then moving to the theoretical framework, which included three topics, where the first topic was entitled (the cinematic construction of the film narrative), either the second topic (the structure of complexity and narrative solutions), or the third topic dealt with the subject (the structure of the end and its relationship to the construction of the narrative). After completing the theore
... Show MoreThe problem of the current research as the Iraqi Drilling Company suffers from the many challenges facing its work as a result of the current conditions in Iraq and the subsequent changes in the policies of the State Which left an impact on its activities and objectives, which created pressure on the importance of an organizational power capable of diagnosing the core competencies and development and maintain them to contribute to the raising and success in the performance of the company. The researchers adopted the method of analytical research and adopted the questionnaire as a main tool in the collection of research data and information . It was distributed to a community of (140) individuals from the low mana
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