The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The purpose of this paper is to build a simulation model by using HEC-RAS software to simulate the reality of water movement in the main river of Basra City (South of Iraq) which is known as Siraji-Khoura River. The main objective of the simulation is to detect areas where the water cycle is interrupted in some stations of the river stream, as this river has become an outlet for the disposal of sewage, leading to pollution and causing weakness in some sections of the river & obstructing the water cycle that takes place between this river and Shatt al – Arab river. A field survey data of the river and its banks were adopted to derive the grades, longitudinal and cross sections of the river, these data included three-dimensional coordinates
... Show MoreConditional logistic regression is often used to study the relationship between event outcomes and specific prognostic factors in order to application of logistic regression and utilizing its predictive capabilities into environmental studies. This research seeks to demonstrate a novel approach of implementing conditional logistic regression in environmental research through inference methods predicated on longitudinal data. Thus, statistical analysis of longitudinal data requires methods that can properly take into account the interdependence within-subjects for the response measurements. If this correlation ignored then inferences such as statistical tests and confidence intervals can be invalid largely.
Abstract
The aim of this research is to concentrate on the of knowledge management activities, initial activities: (Acquisition, Selection, Generation, Assimilation, Emission) knowledge, and support activities: (Measurement, Control, Coordination, Leadership) that is manipulate and controlling in achieving knowledge management cases in organization, that’s is leads to knowledge chain model, then determining the level of membership for these activities to knowledge chain model in a sample of Iraqi organization pushed by knowledge (Universities). The research depends on check list for gaining the data required, theses check list designed by apparently in diagnosing research dimensions and measurem
... Show MoreIn this paper two modifications on Kuznetsov model namely on growth rate law and fractional cell kill term are given. Laplace Adomian decomposition method is used to get the solution (volume of the tumor) as a function of time .Stability analysis is applied. For lung cancer the tumor will continue in growing in spite of the treatment.
Swimming has now become the focus of attention of specialists, which has led to the search for the best methods and various methods of training, which rely heavily on scientific research and studies, through the use of proper planning and a comprehensive scientific and practical vision in the preparation and training process for this game. Some studies have proven that The use of training methods has a positive role in the athletic training of the swimmer, provided that these methods are used in the correct way according to the scientific principles of training and with the loads and stresses that serve the specialized activity, i.e. the swimming distance. The study aimed at the follow 1- Preparing exercises using elastic ro
... Show MoreThe Local and Global Corporations are suffering of managerial and financial corruption phenomena, which leads them to loss and bankruptcy. So, it is necessary to search for tools which help prevent phenomena like this, and one of these tools is (corporate governance) which represent controlling tool that contribute in reducing corruption. this study aims at modifying (corporate governance system)in order to make it suitable with Iraqi government Corporations. the study depend upon main hypothesis which is (the performance level of the strategic perspective of governance system is depending upon work according to the perspective dimensions itself. From the main conclusions:-It is possible to building a strategic perspective
... Show MoreMany cities suffer from the large spread of slums, especially the cities of the Middle East. The purpose of the paper is to study the reality of informal housing in Al-Barrakia and the most important problems that it suffers from. The paper also seeks to study the presence or absence of a correlation between urban safety indicators and urban containment indicators as one of the methods of developing and planning cities. This can be achieved through sustainable urban management. The slums are a source of many urban problems that threaten the security and safety of the residents and represent a focus for the concentration of crimes and drugs. The paper seeks to answer the following question: How can urban safety be improved through urban cont
... Show MoreMany problems were encountered during the drilling operations in Zubair oilfield. Stuckpipe, wellbore instability, breakouts and washouts, which increased the critical limits problems, were observed in many wells in this field, therefore an extra non-productive time added to the total drilling time, which will lead to an extra cost spent. A 1D Mechanical Earth Model (1D MEM) was built to suggest many solutions to such types of problems. An overpressured zone is noticed and an alternative mud weigh window is predicted depending on the results of the 1D MEM. Results of this study are diagnosed and wellbore instability problems are predicted in an efficient way using the 1D MEM. Suitable alternative solutions are presented
... Show MoreDemography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making
... Show MoreIn this review of literature, the light will be concentrated on the role of stem cells as an approach in periodontal regeneration.