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Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Societal awareness and its role in building the Arab state: an intellectual vision:
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It is no secret to everyone that the Arab individual suffers from poor self-awareness and political awareness, which made the state and the importance of its existence and preserving its institutions not among his interests, which made researchers wonder about the possibility of strengthening it and the extent of its impact on the future of building the contemporary Arab state, so the study attempted Addressing the issue of community awareness and its impact on building the state through a clear intellectual vision that blended what is social and political to define the concept of community awareness and highlight its importance and role as a basic pillar in shaping and building modern Arab countries. In the Arab world and ways to enhanc

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using dickey _ fuller expanded test for testing variables of investment function in Iraq
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         To ascertain the stability or instability of time series, three versions of the model proposed by Dickie-Voller were used in this paper. The aim of this study is to explain the extent of the impact of some economic variables such as the supply of money, gross domestic product, national income, after reaching the stability of these variables. The results show that the variable money supply, the GDP variable, and the exchange rate variable were all stable at the level of the first difference in the time series. This means that the series is an integrated first-class series. Hence, the gross fixed capital formation variable, the variable national income, and the variable interest rate

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Production Function Analyze For Almansoor General Company For Engineering Industries In Iraq
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The production function forms one of the techniques used in evaluation the  production the process for any establishment or company, and to explain the importance of contribution of element from the independent variable and it's affect on the dependent variable. Then knowing the elements which are significant or non-significant on the dependent variable.

    So the importance of this study come from estimating the Cobb-Douglas production function for Al- Mansoor General Company for Engineering industries in Iraq during the period (1989-2001)

     To explain the importance which effects the independent variable such as
(N

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 29 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Safety And Security Engineering
Urban Safety is a Tool for Containing Slums to Reach a Sustainable Urban Structure
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Many cities suffer from the large spread of slums, especially the cities of the Middle East. The purpose of the paper is to study the reality of informal housing in Al-Barrakia and the most important problems that it suffers from. The paper also seeks to study the presence or absence of a correlation between urban safety indicators and urban containment indicators as one of the methods of developing and planning cities. This can be achieved through sustainable urban management. The slums are a source of many urban problems that threaten the security and safety of the residents and represent a focus for the concentration of crimes and drugs. The paper seeks to answer the following question: How can urban safety be improved through urban cont

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluating Training Programs According to model Kirkpatrick / field research in the Health Maysan Directorate .
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This present paper aim at knowing  the process of evaluating the training program that could be applied  in Maysan Health office  for it significance and importance in field of management and vocational staff  preparations  of high  scientific experience in different fields of  Health.  The society of research includes staffs  working in Maysan Health Office  , of specialists ,  dentists, pharmacists, laboratories, nursing  and administrators. Their number is 100 employees, the researcher has designed questionnaire by depending on "Kirkpatrick"  for assessing  the training . The researcher has used   thorough survey and has entailed 90 questionnaire,

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 22 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Stem cells a novel approach to periodontal regeneration (A review of literature)
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In this review of literature, the light will be concentrated on the role of stem cells as an approach in periodontal regeneration.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 03 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Stem Cells a Novel Approach to Periodontal Regeneration: A Review of Literature
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Strategic Planning and its Importance in Building Institutional Work in the National Insurance
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The aim of the research is to identify the reality of strategic planning in the National Insurance Company and its importance in building institutional work and to identify the requirements that enable this company to successfully implement strategic planning and the obstacles that limit its application and then achieve the marketing objectives of this company. This study started from the fact that there is a problem represented by the main question that was stated.                                            &nbsp

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Application the generalized estimating equation Method (GEE) to estimate of conditional logistic regression model for repeated measurements
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Conditional logistic regression is often used to study the relationship between event outcomes and specific prognostic factors in order to application of logistic regression and utilizing its predictive capabilities into environmental studies. This research seeks to demonstrate a novel approach of implementing conditional logistic regression in environmental research through inference methods predicated on longitudinal data. Thus, statistical analysis of longitudinal data requires methods that can properly take into account the interdependence within-subjects for the response measurements. If this correlation ignored then inferences such as statistical tests and confidence intervals can be invalid largely.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 04 2017
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal For Administrative And Economic Sciences
Survival Function Estimating of Single age Groups for Generalized Gamma Distribution with Simulation.
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The analysis of survival and reliability considered of topics and methods of vital statistics at the present time because of their importance in the various demographical, medical, industrial and engineering fields. This research focused generate random data for samples from the probability distribution Generalized Gamma: GG, known as: "Inverse Transformation" Method: ITM, which includes the distribution cycle integration function incomplete Gamma integration making it more difficult classical estimation so will be the need to illustration to the method of numerical approximation and then appreciation of the function of survival function. It was estimated survival function by simulation the way "Monte Carlo". The Entropy method used for the

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