The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The media guide is a small-sized printed medium, whose importance is highlighted through the specific information it carriesThe task of the guide lies in the clarity of these indications and making a positive impact on the recipient with understanding so it is a means for the purpose of reaching the effect and effectiveness of the message symbols from the movements of lines in which elements that are supposed to be equal in the performance of their functions and the purpose of their existence gather to achieve the mental response of perception, understanding and enjoyment. It must be in an objective unity based on the balance in this distribution. To form a formal organizational unit and an integrated system, the result of which is to gi
... Show MoreThe popular Kurdish songs and games for children are among the simplest types that can be close to the child’s interest, because we estimate that this segment is limited by its meanings and goals charged with competition and the fall of its innate biological energies, in the early years of the stages of development and growth of human mental, psychological, and muscular skills, Passionate about knowing and discovering the general decree of life, and getting acquainted with the logical rulings that surround his new law, but instinctively it approaches everything that is simple in terms of understanding and palatability, as these games and songs are simple and easy in their melodic elements and elegance Conscious and kinetic are a
... Show MoreThis paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.
The need for an efficient method to find the furthermost appropriate document corresponding to a particular search query has become crucial due to the exponential development in the number of papers that are now readily available to us on the web. The vector space model (VSM) a perfect model used in “information retrieval”, represents these words as a vector in space and gives them weights via a popular weighting method known as term frequency inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). In this research, work has been proposed to retrieve the most relevant document focused on representing documents and queries as vectors comprising average term term frequency inverse sentence frequency (TF-ISF) weights instead of representing them as v
... Show MoreGlobal warming has a serious impact on the survival of organisms. Very few studies have considered the effect of global warming as a mathematical model. The effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey and predators has not been studied before. In this article, an ecological model describing the relationship between prey and predator and the effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey was studied. Moreover, the wind speed was considered an influencing factor in the predation process after developing the function that describes it. From a biological perspective, the nonnegativity and uniform bounded of all solutions for the model are proven. The existence of equilibria for the model and its local stability is inves
... Show MoreInformation security in data storage and transmission is increasingly important. On the other hand, images are used in many procedures. Therefore, preventing unauthorized access to image data is crucial by encrypting images to protect sensitive data or privacy. The methods and algorithms for masking or encoding images vary from simple spatial-domain methods to frequency-domain methods, which are the most complex and reliable. In this paper, a new cryptographic system based on the random key generator hybridization methodology by taking advantage of the properties of Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) to generate an indefinite set of random keys and taking advantage of the low-frequency region coefficients after the DCT stage to pass them to
... Show MoreThis study aims to answer a significant problem of social sciences and philosophy: How do we construct an institutional reality such as diplomacy with an objective recognizable existence? The study assumes that the ability to build institutional reality is based on our biological capacity, as it takes different forms in all the institutions we construct. The study takes the theory of the American philosopher John Searle as an approach to examining the assumption. The study sums up important findings; cultures, although they share the biological capacity on which they produce institutional realities, differ in the form of the value standards on which the institutional realities are based. The study recommends the need of Arab social resea
... Show MoreAs is known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.
We have been address the problem of Strongly seasonal commodities in calculating (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.
We have used an actual data for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs
... Show More