The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
In this work, a new formula of intensity distribution in image plane of elliptical object was founded (Elliptical spread function), by using optical system including circular aperture. The Gauss quadrature method of numerical integral was used for calculating equation's integrals. Curves are shown for system having focal error and intensity distribution in focal axis.
In this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the Entropy loss function have been obtained, assuming Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of the Bayes estimator under Entropy loss function is better than other estimates in all cases.
This study aims to classify the critical points of functions with 4 variables and 8 parameters, we found the caustic for the certain function with the spreading of the critical points. Finally, as an application, we found the bifurcation solutions for the equation of sixth order with boundary conditions using the Lyapunov-Schmidt method in the variational case.
The comedian scenes which Shakespeare has entered in some of his tragedies(Hamlet, King Lear, and Macbeth), constantly the wrath of conservative critics and theorists of Western Drama, as big violation to Aristotle’s rules of tragedy that is forbidden to insert comedian scene in tragedy. Chapter one deals with the research problem, and its significance, purpose,Boarders and the definition of Comic Relieve. Chapter two comprises the theoretical framework which has displayed Arist-Otle’s conception about the imitation way of heroes characters between tragedy and comedy, the different function of catharsis in each one. Then the research has exposed the economical and theatrical activities in London during Elizabethan age which was looke
... Show MoreBackground: Powerlifters and bodybuilders use anabolic androgenic steroids (AAS) especially – as many as 55 percent of elite powerlifters admitted using these agents. In contrast to numerous documented toxic and hormonal effects of AAS their impact on the structure and function of the left ventricular (LV) was not yet fully understood.
The aim of this paper is to approximate multidimensional functions f∈C(R^s) by developing a new type of Feedforward neural networks (FFNS) which we called it Greedy ridge function neural networks (GRGFNNS). Also, we introduce a modification to the greedy algorithm which is used to train the greedy ridge function neural networks. An error bound are introduced in Sobolov space. Finally, a comparison was made between the three algorithms (modified greedy algorithm, Backpropagation algorithm and the result in [1]).
In this paper, the process for finding an approximate solution of nonlinear three-dimensional (3D) Volterra type integral operator equation (N3D-VIOE) in R3 is introduced. The modelling of the majorant function (MF) with the modified Newton method (MNM) is employed to convert N3D-VIOE to the linear 3D Volterra type integral operator equation (L3D-VIOE). The method of trapezoidal rule (TR) and collocation points are utilized to determine the approximate solution of L3D-VIOE by dealing with the linear form of the algebraic system. The existence of the approximate solution and its uniqueness are proved, and illustrative examples are provided to show the accuracy and efficiency of the model.
Mathematical Subject Classificat
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The Phenomenon of Extremism of Values (Maximum or Rare Value) an important phenomenon is the use of two techniques of sampling techniques to deal with this Extremism: the technique of the peak sample and the maximum annual sampling technique (AM) (Extreme values, Gumbel) for sample (AM) and (general Pareto, exponential) distribution of the POT sample. The cross-entropy algorithm was applied in two of its methods to the first estimate using the statistical order and the second using the statistical order and likelihood ratio. The third method is proposed by the researcher. The MSE comparison coefficient of the estimated parameters and the probability density function for each of the distributions were
... Show MoreThe use of non-parametric models and subsequent estimation methods requires that many of the initial conditions that must be met to represent those models of society under study are appropriate, prompting researchers to look for more flexible models, which are represented by non-parametric models
In this study, the most important and most widespread estimations of the estimation of the nonlinear regression function were investigated using Nadaraya-Watson and Regression Local Ploynomial, which are one of the types of non-linear
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Critical buckling temperature of angle-ply laminated plate is developed using a higher-order displacement field. This displacement field used by Mantari et al based on a constant ‘‘m’’, which is determined to give results closest to the three dimensions elasticity (3-D) theory. Equations of motion based on higher-order theory angle ply plates are derived through Hamilton, s principle, and solved using Navier-type solution to obtain critical buckling temperature for simply supported laminated plates. Changing (α2/ α1) ratios, number of layers, aspect ratios, E1/E2 ratios for thick and thin plates and their effect on thermal
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