The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (IQR/3 and Sn) and three levels of IO contamination 0%, 10%, and 20%. The results indicate that using the Huber weighting function with the IQR/3 measurement to build the AR(1)-GARCH(2,1) model leads to better sustainability. These findings have the potential to enhance the GARCH model by modifying the weighting function of the M-estimator
The research aims to demonstrate the dual use of analysis to predict financial failure according to the Altman model and stress tests to achieve integration in banking risk management. On the bank’s ability to withstand crises, especially in light of its low rating according to the Altman model, and the possibility of its failure in the future, thus proving or denying the research hypothesis, the research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which (the bank, according to the Altman model, is threatened with failure in the near future, as it is located within the red zone according to the model’s description, and will incur losses if it is exposed to crises in the future according to the analysis of stress tests
... Show MoreThis study aimed to develop scale of Selectiv Mutism with pupils of primary schools according to their teachers' view in Baghdad city (Karh and Resaf(.
Children might choose the mutism as the solution to avoid some psychological and social problems that surrounded them. Furthermore, this could consider as a disorder that could effect the child and led him to use the Selected Mutism.
This is supported by the pilot study which was conducted by the researcher on 150 teachers in different primary schools in Baghdad. The results revealed some symptoms were found with children who have selected mutism.
Because of there was no scale was found to measure the Selected Mutism, a scale was develop in order to measure t
... Show Moreيعد علم أصول الفقه السبيل إلى استنباط الأحكام من النصوص الشرعية، وبقواعده يسدد المجتهد نظره في أحكام الشريعة ويعينه على الوصول إلى الحقيقة. فهو علم دقيق المسلك، يقصده كل من يتحاشى السطحية في فهم النصوص الشرعية وتفسيرها وتكييف الوقائع والتصرفات الشرعية على النصوص تكييفا صحيحا يعصم العقل عن الخطأ، فهو بالنسبة إلى العلوم الشرعية كالنحو بالنسبة إلى العلوم العربية. وقد نال هذا العلم من جهد العلماء الحظ الأكبر وا
... Show Moreاثر المحددات الخارجية والداخلية في بناء الدولة العراقية
: تفرض مرحلة إعادة بناء الدولة أو مرحلة بناء الدولة حالتين متقاربتين، لكن تختلف تجربة كل منهما عن األخرى، ففي الحالة األولى نعني بها أن دولة ما متكاملة المقومات سواء القانونية أو السياسية أو االقتصادية، وتمتلك هذه الدولة الشرعية القانونية واالعتراف الدولي، لكن تتعرض هذه الدولة لألزمة سواء كانت ثورة أو انقالب أو احتالل، وإلى السقوط ونهاية نظامها السياسي القانوني ومن ثم إعادة بناء الدولة ومنظومتها السياسية..
... Show Moreتعد المواطنة مبدأ ومرجعية دستورية وسياسية لا تلغي عملية التدافع والتنافس في الفضاء الاجتماعي ، نضبطها بضوابط الوطن ووحدته القائمة على احترام التنوع وليس على نفيه ، والساعية بوسائل قانونية وسلمية للافادة من هذا التنوع في تمتين قاعدة الوحدة الوطنية ، بحيث يشعر الجميع بان مستقبلهم مرهون بها ، وانها لاتشكل نفيا لمحو حياتهم ، وانما مجالا للتعبير عنها بوسائل منسجمة وناموس الاختلاف وافاق العصر ومكتسبات الح
... Show MoreConstructing The Psychological Tranquility Scale of the University of Baghdad Students
The research aimed to :
- Constructing the Psychological Tranquility Scale of the University of Baghdad Students.
- Appointing the psychological content standard for the accepting Answer of student about the scale.
The research Sample was (414) boy and girl from Baghdad University Students for the Studying year (2008-2009), So the Scale of the Psychological Tranquility Scale was bilt on them in good psychometric properties from truth Factor analyzing which was its super saturation was reached to (50) item from its items a value more than the super sutution norm (0,30) for kaizer, also the firm value was Relaibility for the scale by the way
The old ways of education has not been able to achieve the ultimate goal in the development of the child's personality and prepared for public life , so shall educators to adopt modern methods of learning such as cooperative learning , which takes into account the considerations psychology of children and their level of mental , as the collective learning is important for children mighty and vulnerable children and so by placing the child in front of something significant tangible and choose topics of relevance to the concerns of the child himself . ( Maroni , 2008 : 101-102 ) . Consisted importance of research of the most important goals of community child care and upbringing proper education to create him a good citizen intact,
... Show Moreدور الحكومات في بناء الدولة ضمن اطار الدستور