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Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index

Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
''The use of factor analysis to identify the leading factors to high blood pressure.''A field study in Baghdad hospitals

Abstract :

    In view of the fact that high blood pressure is one of the serious human diseases that a person can get without having to feel them, which is caused by many reasons therefore it became necessary to do research in this subject and to express these many factors by specific causes through studying it using (factor analysis).

  So the researcher got to the five factors that explains only 71% of the total variation in this phenomenon is the subject of the research, where ((overweight)) and ((alcohol in abundance)) and ((smoking)) and ((lack of exercise)) are the reasons that influential the most in the incidence of this disease.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect Of Using Quantitative Methods Of Demand Forecasting In Improving Of Supply Chain Performance:" Case Study In One Of An Industerial Organization"

Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
" Measuring the competitive performance of the National Insurance Company and some of its branches using the Revealed comparative advantage index RCAI "

The research dealt with the subject of measuring the competitive performance of the National Insurance Company and some of its branches (Basra, Ninwa, Kirkuk and Babil), Depending on the Revenue Growth Index at the activity level, and the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index RCAIAt the branch level,To measure the competitiveness of the company And some branches, As the problem of research in the lack of adoption by some companies in the insurance service sector on scientific indicators to measure their competitive performance, The aims of the research is to measure the competitiveness of the National Insurance Company, as well as the competitiveness of its branches according to the scientific method, One of the main Conclusions of the re

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Iterative Reweighting Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Calculate The Estimation of The Parameters Of The Maximum Likelihood of The Skew Normal Distribution

Excessive skewness which occurs sometimes in the data is represented as an obstacle against normal distribution. So, recent studies have witnessed activity in studying the skew-normal distribution (SND) that matches the skewness data which is regarded as a special case of the normal distribution with additional skewness parameter (α), which gives more flexibility to the normal distribution. When estimating the parameters of (SND), we face the problem of the non-linear equation and by using the method of Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) their solutions will be inaccurate and unreliable. To solve this problem, two methods can be used that are: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the iterative reweighting algorithm (IR) based on the M

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 10 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Kirkuk University For Agricultural Sciences
Effect of Drought Stress (Water Deficit) and Plant Density on Productivity of Water and Zea mays (Baghdad Varieties) in Middle Region of Iraq

The objective of this study was to investigate the drought stress and plant density possibility on water productivity and grain yield of maize (Zea mays L.) (Planting Baghdad 3 synthetic varieties), Field experiment was conducted at Abu Ghraib Research Station (Baghdad) during spring and Autumn seasons of 2016 using a randomized complete block design arranged in split plot with three replications. Three irrigation treatment included: irrigation after depletion 50% of available water (T1), irrigation after depletion 75% of available water (T2) and irrigation after depletion 90% of available water (T3) in the main plots and three plant density which were: 1 seeds hill-1 (D1) giving a uniform plant density of 66666 plants ha-1 , 2 seeds hill1

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Influence of Diabetes Mellitus on myocardial repolarization by measurement of QT variability Index

Background: Various abnormalities in myocardial repolarization assessed by QT variability index (QTVI) in diabetics are associated with high risk to ventricular arrhythmia. The increase in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality appears to relate to the synergism of hyperglycemia with dyslipidemia, hypertension and obesity in addition to disturbed myocardial repolarization.
Objectives: The aim of the present study was to estimate and evaluate an index of myocardial repolarization instability (QTVI) in patients with DM on insulin or oral hypoglycemic drugs in comparison with healthy individuals.
Patients and Methods: The study was conducted on fifty six (56), middle-aged patients with DM of either sex in addition to age-matched healt

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar

Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Artificial Neural Network to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties in Nasiriya Oil Field

   The time spent in drilling ahead is usually a significant portion of total well cost. Drilling is an expensive operation including the cost of equipment and material used during the penetration of rock plus crew efforts in order to finish the well without serious problems. Knowing the rate of penetration should help in speculation of the cost and lead to optimize drilling outgoings. Ten wells in the Nasiriya oil field have been selected based on the availability of the data. Dynamic elastic properties of Mishrif formation in the selected wells were determined by using Interactive Petrophysics (IP V3.5) software based on the las files and log record provided. The average rate of penetration and average dynamic elastic propert

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Sonic Log to Predict Abnormal Pressure Zones in Selected Oil Wells (Western of Iraq)

Two oil wells were tested to find the abnormal pressure zones using sonic log technique. We found that well Abu-Jir-3 and Abu-Jir-5 had an abnormal pressure zones from depth 4340 to 4520 feet and 4200 to 4600 feet, respectively. The maximum difference between obtained results and the field measured results did not exceed 2.4%.
In this paper, the formation pressures were expressed in terms of pressure gradient which sometimes reached up to twice the normal pressure gradient.
Drilling and developing such formations were dangerous and expensive.
The plotted figures showed a clear derivation from the normal trend which confirmed the existence of abnormal pressure zones.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Effect of Body mass index on interleukin2, 6 and soluble fibroblast associated surface antigen in infertile men

Background: obesity is an important cause of adverse health problems, including male infertility. Testosterone is essential for spermatogenesis and permits the release of mature sperms. In the absence of testosterone stimulation, spermatogenesis does not proceed beyond the meiosis stage. Aromatase expression is directly related to the degree of adiposity; it is dependent on cytokine stimulation and requires the presence of glucocorticoids, 17β-estradiol in the plasma of adult men is formed by aromatization convert testosterone and androstinedione to 17β-estradiol Apoptosis is an important process in the context of germ cells since they undergo both mitosis and meiosis, and this process is affected by

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