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Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index

Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Drought assessment in Iraq using analysis of Standardized precipitation index (SPI)

The Present study investigated the drought in Iraq, by using the rainfall data which obtained from 39 meteorological stations for the past 30 years (1980-2010). The drought coefficient calculated on basis of the standard precipitation index (SPI) and then characteristics of drought magnitude, duration and intensity were analyzed. The correlation and regression between magnitude and duration of drought were obtained according the (SPI) index. The result shows that drought magnitude values were greater in the northeast region of Iraq. 

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 24 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Drought Spatiotemporal Characteristics Based on a Vegetation Condition Index in Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

     Drought is a complex phenomenon that has severe impacts on the environment. Vegetation and its conditions are very sensitive to drought effects. This study aimed to monitor and assess the drought severity and its relationships to some ecological variables in ten districts of Erbil Governorate (Kurdistan Region), Iraq, throughout 20 years (1998-2017). The results revealed that droughts frequently hit Erbil throughout the study period. The Landsat time-series- based on Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) significantly correlated with precipitation, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and latitude. Extreme VCI-based drought area percentages were recorded in 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011 by 43.4%, 67.9%, 43.3%, and 40.0%, respe

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Spatiotemporal Drought Monitoring Using Remote Sensing Technique in Babel-Iraq

       Drought is one of the most natural hazards that may harm human life and property under different weather and environmental conditions. This study used remote sensing data to monitor agricultural and meteorological drought in Babel Governorate. Drought maps were drawn using Landsat 8 images based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 2015, 2018, and 2021. The meteorological drought was assessed using a standardized precipitation index (SPI 12) for the same years. The results showed that the SPI-12 indicated near-normal drought types in 2015 and 2018, whereas SPI values showed a lower value in 2021. Two drought categories were identified which were moderate drought and severe drought. The NDVI results showed tha

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Drought and Maize Breeding
Abstract<p>Tension caused by a lack of water (water stress or drought stress) represents the continuous and continuous threat to the survival of the plant, as many of the plants in which phenotypic or physiological modification takes place may not be able to continue and remain in the environment in which they live due to the water stress on it or the low soil moisture content. This of course is related to the prevailing weather conditions (lack of rain, high temperature, increased wind speed, low relative humidity in the atmosphere … etc.), so dry soil is defined as the shortage of soil water needed to the extent that its readiness for the plant decreases (that is, the threshold at which the </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Tools for Drought Identification and Assessment: A Review

Drought is a natural phenomenon in many arid, semi-arid, or wet regions. This showed that no region worldwide is excluded from the occurrence of drought. Extreme droughts were caused by global weather warming and climate change. Therefore, it is essential to review the studies conducted on drought to use the recommendations made by the researchers on drought.  The drought was classified into meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and economic-social. In addition, researchers described the severity of the drought by using various indices which required different input data.  The indices used by various researchers were the Joint Deficit Index (JDI), Effective Drought Index (EDI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), Sta

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 14 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Genetic Diversity of Iraqi Barley Species Differing in Their Tolerance to Drought by RAPD Analysis

The genetic diversity was studied in sixteen barley Hordeum vulgar L. species cultivated in Iraq , which are differ in their ability to drought stress tolerance by using random amplified polymorphic DNA polymerase chain reaction (RAPD - PCR ) .Barley species was evaluated to drought stress  after treatment the plant seedling at germination stages to different concentration of polyethylene glycol (PEDG6000) . The results showed that the Broaq and Arefat species have the highest tolerance to drought stress in contrast the rest of Barly species like Alkhair, Alwarkaa, Ebaa99, Shoaa, Alrafidain,Sameer Rehana 3 , forat9 , jazeral ,and ebaa7 revealed sensitivity to drought stress .      The primes which used RAPD technique

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 16 2020
Journal Name
Diyala Agricultural Sciences Journal
FIELD EMERGENCE IN PRIMED SEED OF SORGHUM CULTIVARS TO TOLERATE DROUGHT STRESS

An experiment was carried out in pots under open field conditions in the fall seasons of 2017 and 2018 at the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad, for improving field emergence and drought stress tolerance in sorghum. Three factors were studied. 1st factor was three cultivars (Inqath, Rabeh and Buhoth70). 2nd factor was primed and unprimed seed. 3rd factor was represented by the irrigation intervals every 2, 4 and 6 days. Randomized complete block design with four replicates was used. The results showed that Buhoth 70 cultivar had a significant superiority compared to others in traits of the first and final count of emergence, emergence energy and emergence rate index (54.2%, 26.7%, 1.747 and 70.7 % d

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Flow Characteristics Of Tigris River Within Baghdad City During Drought

The main source of water supply in Iraq is the surface water, especially Tigris and Euphrates Rivers and their tributaries. In the recent years there was a great drop in the water levels of Tigris River within Baghdad City which had affected the operation of twelve water supply projects located on the banks of Tigris River in Baghdad City, due to significant climate changes, and the expansion of hydraulic construction (dams) and implementation of new irrigation projects in Turkey, these factors have greatly reduced the water flowrates of river by about 46%. In the present study the flow characteristics of Tigris River within Baghdad City was studied, the reach involved was about 49km in which it represents the urban zone

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 18 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Effect of Drought Stress on Barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.) in Germination Stage

The Present study was aimed to evaluate the responses of sixteen species of barley Hordeum vulgar L. cultivated in Iraq against drought stress through treatments of seedling with varying concentrations of Polyethylene glycol (PEG6000) to reach the water stress(-3,-6,-9) in addition to control (without PEG 6000). The results showed variation of barley species in their ability to tolerate the drought stress. For instance, Boraq and Arefat were shown to be the most tolerable species, since  their percentage of seeds germination were non significantly affected by the highest water potential (-9)  bar, while (bawadi,amal,nor alqadsea and nomar) were shown to be moderately drought tolerable, since their percentage of  seeds germ

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