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Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index

Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
MEDIA SUSTAINABILITY INDEX IN IRAQ

The importance of this research lies in assessing the current state of media in Iraq based on international indicators and standards set by the Research and Scientific Exchange Council and UNESCO. That is to measure the strength and durability of media after 9 April 2003. These indicators are divided into five objectives that measure and describe each of the five research objectives that we seek to test through the points system.

 

Based on the foregoing, researchers in Iraqi media find that these conditions may lead to further decline unless measures are taken to help avoid mistakes, provide the requirements for development and progress. In addition, care from the State is needed to support this process, which would

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 14 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Role of using the Relative Strength Index in Making Speculation Decision in Stock: Applied Research in the Iraq Stock Exchange

 The relative strength index (RSI) is one of the best known technical analysis indicators; it provides the speculators by prior signals about the future stock’s prices, and because the speculations in shares of companies which listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange have a high degree of risk, like risk of shares prices felling, so the speculators became committed to use some methods to reduce these risks, and one of these methods is the technical analysis by using the relative strength index (RSI) which enable the speculators of choosing the right time for buy and sell the stocks and the right time to enter or leave the market by using the historical rice data. And from here the problem of the research formulated as “Is the using of

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Role of Ascorbic Acid in Drought Stress Tolerance of Wheat Plant Triticum aestivum L.

Drought is a major abiotic stress, severely affecting the physiological processes and  growth of plants. The present investigation aimed to evaluate the impacts of drought stress with three periods for irrigation: every 3 days(control), every 6 days, and every 12 days and foliar spray with different concentrations of ascorbic acid (0, 75, 150, 225) mg.L-1  on the wheat plant. Pots experiment was conducted as a completely randomized design with three replications in the green house, Department of Biology, College of Education for Pure Science (Ibn Al- Haitham), University of Baghdad, during the growing season, 2018 – 2019. The results indicated that drought stress decreased plant growth and hastened the senescence of flag l

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Principal Components Analysis in the Formation of a Sustainable Human Development Index for Arab Countries

This study aims to derive a sustainable human development index for the Arab countries by using the principal components analysis, which can help in reducing the number of data in the case of multiple variables.  This can be relied upon in the interpretation and tracking sustainable human development in the Arab countries in the view of the multiplicity of sustainable human development indicators and its huge data, beside the heterogeneity of countries in a range of characteristics associated with indicators of sustainable human development such as area, population, and economic activity. The study attempted to use the available data to the selected Arab countries for the recent years. This study concluded that a single inde

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Box and Jenkins use models to predict the numbers of patients with hepatitis Alvairose in Iraq

The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound

The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.

Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Morphological Change in Sunflower Plant under Hardening Conditions to Drought Tolerance. II. Leaf Number and Leaf Area

The study was conducted during the spring season of 2000 and2001. The objective was to study the changes in leaves number of sunflower plants and its leaf area during growth stages under hardening conditions to drought tolerance. Agricultural practices were made according to recommendations.Asplit-split plots design was used with three replications.The main plots included irrigation treatments:irrigation to100%(full irrigation),75and50%of available water.The sub plots were the cultivars Euroflor and Flame.The sub-sub plots represented four seed soaking treatments:Control(unsoaking), soaking in water ,Paclobutrazol solution(250ppm),and Pix solution(500ppm). The soaking continued for 24 hours then seeds were dried at room temperature

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
THE MORPHOLOGICAL CHANGE IN SUNFLOWER PLANT UNDER HARDENING CONDITIONS TO DROUGHT TOLERANCE . I. PLANT HEIGHT AND STEM DIAMETER

The objective of the work was to study the changes in height and stem diameter of sunflower plants during growth stages under hardening conditions to drought tolerance. Field experiments were carried out during the spring season of 2000 and2001. Agricultural practices were made according to recommendations.Asplit-split plots design was used with three replications.The main plots included irrigation treatments:irrigation to100%(full irrigation),75and50%of available water.The sub plots were the cultivars Euroflor and Flame.The sub-sub plots represented four seed soaking treatments:Control(unsoaking), soaking in water ,Paclobutrazol solution(250ppm),and Pix solution(500ppm). The soaking continued for 24 hours then seeds were dried at room

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Artificial Neural Network Models For Forecasting & Comparison

The Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 19 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain University College For Sciences
Use GARCH model to predict the stock market index, Saudi Arabia

In this paper has been building a statistical model of the Saudi financial market using GARCH models that take into account Volatility in prices during periods of circulation, were also study the effect of the type of random error distribution of the time series on the accuracy of the statistical model, as it were studied two types of statistical distributions are normal distribution and the T distribution. and found by application of a measured data that the best model for the Saudi market is GARCH (1,1) model when the random error distributed t. student's .

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