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Box and Jenkins use models to predict the numbers of patients with hepatitis Alvairose in Iraq

The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound

The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.

Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used statistical program MINITAB16 for the analysis of time series and through differentiation standards (standard biz BIC information, standard Waikiki AIC) shows that the best model for the number of injured Alvairose liver inflammation in Iraq is a model ARIMA (1,1,0).

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Hepatitis G virus infection among Iraqi patients on maintenance hemodialysis

Background: Patients on maintenance hemodialysis are at increased risk of infection with parentally transmitted viral agents. In recent years a high prevalence of hepatitis G virus infection among end stage renal diseases and chronic hemodialysis patients has been well documented.
Objectives: To assess the percentage and risk factors of HGV in hemodialysis patients, and to evaluate the clinical consequences of HGV in this population.
Patients and methods: Fifty (50) patients with chronic renal failure who underwent maintenance hemodialysis. Patients were currently attending hemodialysis department of Baghdad teaching hospital during the period of October 2011 to January 2012, compared to forty one (41) healthy blood donors who unde

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Box- Jenkins Models to Predict the Number of Patients with Hypertension in Kalar

    Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is widely used in many complex applications. Artificial neural network is a statistical intelligent technique resembling the characteristic of the human neural network.  The prediction of time series from the important topics in statistical sciences to assist administrations in the planning and make the accurate decisions, so the aim of this study is to analysis the monthly hypertension in Kalar for the period (January 2011- June 2018) by applying an autoregressive –integrated- moving average model  and artificial neural networks and choose the best and most efficient model for patients with hypertension in Kalar through the comparison between neural networks and Box- Je

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Serum interleukin 1 and interleukin 10 levels in Iraqi leukemic patients with hepatitis G virus infection.

Background:

Objectives : This prospective   study aimed to  estimate interleukins 1 and 10  levels in acute  hepatitis (G) in Iraqi patients with leukemiaHepatitis G virus and GB virus C (GBV-C)  RNA viruses that were independently identified in 1995, and were subsequently found to be two isolates of the same virus. Blood transfusion is the main risk factor for HGV transmission Immune-mediated mechanisms are believed to play an important pathogenic role in  hepatitis G virus infection. Interleukin-1 (IL-1) plays an important role in the inflammatory process. implying that IL-1 may play a role in viral clearance and  suggesting that IL-1 has direct antiviral

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Detection of Hepatitis -B virus Genotypes among Chronic Carriers in Duhok - Iraq

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the major etiological agents causing acute and chronic liver disease worldwide with significant morbidity and mortality. The high genetic variability of HBV is reflected by eight genotypes (A to H), each with a particular geographical prevalence.
Objectives: The study was conducted to find out HBV genotypes in chronic hepatitis B- (CHB) carriers in association with serological markers of HBV.
Methods: This work was carried on from March to, December 2012 in Duhok/Iraq and enrolled 134 HBsAg positive carrier cases. recruited to Central Public Health Lab. Specific primers PCR technique was used to detect HBV genotypes. The carrier cases were screened for markers of HBV infection by Enzyme

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled in Iraqi ports An applied study in the general company of Iraqi ports

Time series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values ​​contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).

The volume of go

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Particle Swarm Algorithm to Solve Queuing Models with Practical Application

This paper includes the application of Queuing theory with of Particle swarm algorithm or is called (Intelligence swarm) to solve the problem of The queues and developed for General commission for taxes /branch Karkh center in the service stage of the Department of calculators composed of six  employees , and it was chosen queuing model is a single-service channel  M / M / 1 according to the nature of the circuit work mentioned above and it will be divided according to the letters system for each employee, and  it was composed of data collection times (arrival time , service time, departure time)

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Publication Date
Wed May 03 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models

    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Comparison study between the treatment of Hepatitis C virus with (peg-interferon, ribavirin, silymarin) and (peg-interferon, ribavirin) in Baghdad teaching hospital.

Background: Infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, WHO estimated that about 170 million people are infected with Hepatitic C virus, Silymarin (Legalon) have been recently shown to be effective in treatment of Hepatitic C virus infection.
Objectives: The effectiveness of Legalon (Silymarin) on viral load in patients with Hepatitic C virus infection.
Patients and methods: A prospective case – control study included 400 patients with Hepatitis C virus infection. 200 patients (group A) were treated with (peg-interferon, ribavirin, silymarin) the other 200 patients (group B) were treated with (peg-interferon, ribavirin) . only G1 & G4 genotypes were included , viral load were assessed ini

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