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bsj-3563
Using Backpropagation to Predict Drought Factor in Keetch-Byram Drought Index
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Forest fires continue to rise during the dry season and they are difficult to stop. In this case, high temperatures in the dry season can cause an increase in drought index that could potentially burn the forest every time. Thus, the government should conduct surveillance throughout the dry season. Continuous surveillance without the focus on a particular time becomes ineffective and inefficient because of preventive measures carried out without the knowledge of potential fire risk. Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), formulation of Drought Factor is used just for calculating the drought today based on current weather conditions, and yesterday's drought index. However, to find out the factors of drought a day after, the data is needed about the weather. Therefore, we need an algorithm that can predict the dryness factor. So, the most significant fire potential can be predicted during the dry season. Moreover, daily prediction of the dry season is needed each day to conduct the best action then a qualified preventive measure can be carried out. The method used in this study is the backpropagation algorithm which has functions for calculating, testing and training the drought factors. By using empirical data, some data are trained and then tested until it can be concluded that 100% of the data already well recognized. Furthermore, some other data tested without training, then the result is 60% of the data match. In general, this algorithm shows promising results and can be applied more to complete several variables supporters.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Iterative Reweighting Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Calculate The Estimation of The Parameters Of The Maximum Likelihood of The Skew Normal Distribution
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Excessive skewness which occurs sometimes in the data is represented as an obstacle against normal distribution. So, recent studies have witnessed activity in studying the skew-normal distribution (SND) that matches the skewness data which is regarded as a special case of the normal distribution with additional skewness parameter (α), which gives more flexibility to the normal distribution. When estimating the parameters of (SND), we face the problem of the non-linear equation and by using the method of Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) their solutions will be inaccurate and unreliable. To solve this problem, two methods can be used that are: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the iterative reweighting algorithm (IR) based on the M

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Different Methods to Predict Oil in Place in Mishrif Formation / Amara Oil Field
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The reserve estimation process is continuous during the life of the field due to risk and inaccuracy that are considered an endemic problem thereby must be studied. Furthermore, the truth and properly defined hydrocarbon content can be identified just only at the field depletion. As a result, reserve estimation challenge is a function of time and available data. Reserve estimation can be divided into five types: analogy, volumetric, decline curve analysis, material balance and reservoir simulation, each of them differs from another to the kind of data required. The choice of the suitable and appropriate method relies on reservoir maturity, heterogeneity in the reservoir and data acquisition required. In this research, three types of rese

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Artificial Neural Network to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties in Nasiriya Oil Field
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   The time spent in drilling ahead is usually a significant portion of total well cost. Drilling is an expensive operation including the cost of equipment and material used during the penetration of rock plus crew efforts in order to finish the well without serious problems. Knowing the rate of penetration should help in speculation of the cost and lead to optimize drilling outgoings. Ten wells in the Nasiriya oil field have been selected based on the availability of the data. Dynamic elastic properties of Mishrif formation in the selected wells were determined by using Interactive Petrophysics (IP V3.5) software based on the las files and log record provided. The average rate of penetration and average dynamic elastic propert

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Sonic Log to Predict Abnormal Pressure Zones in Selected Oil Wells (Western of Iraq)
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Two oil wells were tested to find the abnormal pressure zones using sonic log technique. We found that well Abu-Jir-3 and Abu-Jir-5 had an abnormal pressure zones from depth 4340 to 4520 feet and 4200 to 4600 feet, respectively. The maximum difference between obtained results and the field measured results did not exceed 2.4%.
In this paper, the formation pressures were expressed in terms of pressure gradient which sometimes reached up to twice the normal pressure gradient.
Drilling and developing such formations were dangerous and expensive.
The plotted figures showed a clear derivation from the normal trend which confirmed the existence of abnormal pressure zones.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
BUILD AN EFFICIENT INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO USING THE WILLIAM RATIO (EMPIRICAL STUDY) IN IRAQ STOCK EXCHANGE: BUILD AN EFFICIENT INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO USING THE WILLIAM RATIO (EMPIRICAL STUDY) IN IRAQ STOCK EXCHANGE
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ABSTRACT

            This study aimed to choose top stocks through technical analysis tools specially the indicator called (ratio of William index), and test the ability of technical analysis tools in building a portfolio of shares efficient in comparison with the market portfolio. These one technical tools were used for building one portfolios in 21 companies on specific preview conditions and choose 10 companies for the period from (March 2015) to (June 2017). Applied results of the research showed that Portfolio yield for companies selected according to the ratio of William index indicator (0.0406) that

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 10 2016
Journal Name
ألمؤتمر الدولي العلمي الخامس للاحصائيين العرب/ القاهرة
Proposition of Modified Genetic Algorithm to Estimate Additive Model by using Simulation
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Often phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using GIS to identify hazardous earthquake locations in Iran
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The objective of all planning research is to plan for human comfort and safety, and one of the most significant natural dangers to which humans are exposed is earthquake risk; therefore, earthquake risks must be anticipated, and with the advancement of global technology, it is possible to obtain information on earthquake hazards. GIS has been utilized extensively in the field of environmental assessment research due to its high potential, and GIS is a crucial application in seismic risk assessment. This paper examines the methodologies used in recent GIS-based seismic risk studies, their primary environmental impacts on urban areas, and the complexity of the relationship between the applied methodological approaches and the resulting env

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of marketing tools on the legal liquidity index : an applied research in the International Development Bank for Investment and Finance
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Abstract

               The main problem of the study lies in the lack of a clear perception among the study sample about the impact of digital marketing tools on legal liquidity. Legal) of the International Development Bank for Investment and Finance and to achieve the objectives of the research, the method of observation and survey was used in measuring the dimensions of digital marketing. As for banking liquidity, the reports and financial statements of the bank were used as the research sample, as well as the use of the statistical analysis program SPSS in the statement of the relationship The study concluded, in summary, the following: Mar

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