Markov chains are an application of stochastic models in operation research, helping the analysis and optimization of processes with random events and transitions. The method that will be deployed to obtain the transient solution to a Markov chain problem is an important part of this process. The present paper introduces a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) approach to solve the Markov chain problem. The probability distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain with an infinitesimal generator at a given time is considered, which is a resulting solution of the Chapman-Kolmogorov differential equation. This study presents a one-step second-derivative method with better accuracy in solving the first-order Initial Value Problems (IVPs) compared to other approaches found in the literature, which is verified by the obtained solutions. The determination of the transient solutions for Markov chains is presented using the proposed method. The results show better accuracy in solving the transient distribution in Markov chains, which implies that there is an improved assurance in adopting this approach in future studies of the Markov chain modeling process for predicting future events based on the current state of a process. Future studies on Markov chain modeling could adopt the introduced method to predict future events based on the current state of a process.
This Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr
... Show MoreImproving" Jackknife Instrumental Variable Estimation method" using A class of immun algorithm with practical application
The rotor dynamics generally deals with vibration of rotating structures. For designing rotors of a high speeds, basically its important to take into account the rotor dynamics characteristics. The modeling features for rotor and bearings support flexibility are described in this paper, by taking these characteristics of rotor dynamics features into standard Finite Element Approach (FEA) model. Transient and harmonic analysis procedures have been found by ANSYS, the idea has been presented to deal with critical speed calculation. This papers shows how elements BEAM188 and COMBI214 are used to represent the shaft and bearings, the dynamic stiffness and damping coefficients of journal bearings as a matrices have been found
... Show MoreBackground: Acute appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency. The diagnosis of this condition is still essentially clinical and there is difficulty in the clinical diagnosis, especially among elderly, children and patients with a typical presentation, so early and accurate diagnosis of acute appendicitis is important to avoid its complications.Objectives: To evaluate the degree of accuracy of Alvarado scoring system in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis.Method: Two hundred patients were admitted to the Alkindy Teaching Hospital from January 2011 to april 2014- presented with symptoms and signs suggestive of acute appendicitis. After examination and investigations all patients were given a score according to Alvarado sc
... Show MoreAl-Yusifia river was assessed at three sampling stations with study period from Autumn 2010 to the end of Summer 2011. The present investigation was carried out on diversity of fungi and bacteria from Al-Yusifia river, Baghdad city. During the study, a total of 12 fungal genus and 6 bacterial genus were isolated during the year seasons. The dominant fungus at the three stations were Penicillium sp., then Rhizopus and Trichophyton megninii while the dominant bacteria was Escherichia coli and Klebsiella sp.
The higher
... Show MoreIn this study, we investigate about the run length properties of cumulative sum (Cusum) and The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts, to detect positive shifts in the mean of the process for the poisson distribution with unknown mean. We used markov chain approach to compute the average and the standard deviation for run length for Cusum and EWMA control charts, when the variable under control follows poisson distribution. Also, we used the Cusum and the EWMA control charts for monitoring a process mean when the observations (products are selected from Al_Mamun Factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from poisson distribution i
... Show MoreThe study aimed to explore the effectiveness of using rational judgment strategy in teaching science to develop scientific thinking for second-grade students. The researcher utilized the quasi-experimental approach based on (the pre/post designing) of two groups: experimental and control. As for tools: a test of scientific thinking prepared by the researcher that proved its verification of their validity and reliability. The test applied on a random sample of (66) students, divided into two groups: (34) experimental, and (32) control. The results showed that the experimental group outperformed the control group in the post-application of the scientific thinking test, In each skill separately, and in the total skills. The study recommende
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