The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract:
The prose poem of the 1990s is considered one of the important
contributions of the Iraqi poetic scene. The poem found a position in the Iraqi
poetry because of the favor of a group of youth poets who lefty clear traces.
Their linguistic techniques often violate the domain o9f language, significance
and image.
The poems of those youth poets moved the verse towards reality to
drink from its abundant springs in order to stand on a rigid ground. Their
linguistic traces are characterized by paradox and astonishment that are used
by the poet to construct his poem.

The paradox was considered an ideal means for constructing a
poem by some of them. The poem moved towards definitions and these
de

The postmodern ideas and concepts have produced social, political and economic variables that have been affected by wars, crises, the role of globalization and the information revolution. They have created many variables in concepts and great variables in technological, artistic and cultural innovations. All these changes have contributed to changing the form of the theatrical show aesthetically and intellectually, which cast a shadow over the nature of the actor's performance who has become more demanding to change his performance and to find the mechanisms and new nature of work governing him corresponding to those variables and this prompted the researcher to adopt the subject (the performance variable of the actor's techniques in pos

The harsh human suffering experienced by the Andalusians were a religious conflict and racist impact on all aspects of public life. The religious factor most important factors that determined the nature of the hostile relationship between the Andalusian and Castilian, Castile has sought to make them Christians by force through laws that deprived them of all their rights. In spite of the large number of those laws, the authority admitted inability to subdue the Andalusians to its will through the issuance of the final decree of expulsion.

The issue of the research lies in the non-representation of the models developed for the communication process in the interaction and networking processes through social media, as the research sought to build a network model of communication according to the specific data and features of social media platforms in order to reach a special generalization to understand how the process of networking operates in cyberspace.

The researcher followed the analytical survey approach as she described the communication models outwardly in order to be able to build a networked communication model that represents the flow of post-reactive communication. Therefore, it has been named "Nebula - Sadeem" after the concept of post-space and cosmic g

(January 25, 2011) represented a real opportunity to bring about fundamental changes in Egyptian foreign policy and to start a new phase that would cut off all the negative and problematic aspects of Egyptian politics in the period before the revolution. Through the employment of Egypt's huge balance and the role of historical is a civilization rooted in the roots of thousands of years and Islamic reference represented over more than a thousand years the Islamic medium of religion in the start of vision and tools to achieve the Egyptian national interest, and safeguarding Egyptian national security in its comprehensive sense. The research attempts to answer a central question: Is there a role for Egyptian soft power in the Islamic world

  Sufism has aesthetic signs linked to the human spirit and adopts a set of spiritual, motor and tonal practices, let alone the philosophical aspects that have been tackled in the epics, novels and theatrical texts, the theatrical show can recall the Sufi image and its aesthetics within the operating and image system of the theatrical show.. The research problem resides in how to employ the Sufi image in the theatrical show. The research consists introduction of the research subject, the problem, the importance, and objectives represented by uncovering the aesthetic and intellectual representations of the Sufi image in the theatrical show. the theoretical foundation within two sections: the first highlighted the concept of (Sufism a

توظيف القوة الناعمة في تنفيذ السياسة الخارجية الفرنسية اتجاه المنطقة العربية بعد 2017م

ABSTRACT

This research deals with the two item namely, the monetary policy central Bank of Iraqi and money supply . that contribute in up the problem of the paper that is concerned with the fact that to what extent the effectiveness of monetary policy conducted by the central Bank of Iraqi is valid in controlling money supply as well as the possibility of applying it in practical environment restricted to the scope of financial in stitiutions particularly in research population represented by central Bank of Iraqi .

For the purpose of a practical contribution for monetary and financial institutions . To achieve this , A hypothesis has been carried out and it suggested that the mon

Estimation of the tail index parameter of a one - parameter Pareto model has wide important by the researchers because it has awide application in the econometrics science and reliability theorem.

Here we introduce anew estimator of ^"generalized median" type and compare it with the methods of Moments and Maximum likelihood by using the criteria, mean square error.

 The estimator of generalized median type performing best over all.