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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Case control study to determine Macrophage migration inhibitor, and N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen Levels in the sera of osteoporosis patients
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This study focused on determining the markers of Macrophage migration inhibitor (MIF), as well as the N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen (NTX), and some other parameters (alkaline phosphatase (ALP), vitamin D (Vit D), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and magnesium (Mg), and their correlation with other parameters in osteoporosis. One hundred ten subjects were involved in the current study. There were two groups of patients: group I (30) women with severe osteoporosis and group II (30) women with mild osteoporosis. For comparison, 50 apparently healthy individuals were included as a control. Serum levels of MIF, and NTX were significantly higher in groups I and II as compared to the control group, which indicate that these two parameters

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Scopus (18)
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Real-Time Cloth Simulation on Virtual Human Character Using Enhanced Position Based Dynamic Framework Technique
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     Cloth simulation and animation has been the topic of research since the mid-80's in the field of computer graphics. Enforcing incompressible is very important in real time simulation. Although, there are great achievements in this regard, it still suffers from unnecessary time consumption in certain steps that is common in real time applications.   This research develops a real-time cloth simulator for a virtual human character (VHC) with wearable clothing. This research achieves success in cloth simulation on the VHC through enhancing the position-based dynamics (PBD) framework by computing a series of positional constraints which implement constant densities. Also, the self-collision and collision wit

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Scopus (24)
Crossref (20)
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Different garlic forms: (lobster, mashed, crushed) and their effect on quality qualities And the molecular life of the fermented cucumber and flavor
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This study aimed to isolate and identifye the growth of microorganisms and
their effect on pickled cucumber and cabbage, the study also investigated the effect of
garlic (in the form of segments, chopped or crushed) on the mentioned pickled –food
features . Furthermore, a sense based comparison is made between vinegar-preserved
samples and vinegar-garlic preserved ones.
The following results have been obtained:
1- The isolation of staph. aureus alone from the samples and the study of its physical
and biochemical features.
2- The fresh garlic (segments, chopped and crushed) with concentration of 5%, 7.5%,
and 10% showed a damaging percentage of 100% to bacterial growth of staph. Aureus
after 24 hours of inc

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2017
Journal Name
كلية بغداد للعلوم الاقتصادية الجامعة
Competitiveness of business organizations according to the role of knowledge management and customer orientation: a comparative survey study in Iraqi business organizations
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The research aims to reach a set of objectives concerning creation a clear vision about conceptual, philosophical and practical dimension of relations, and effects between knowledge management, costumer orientation and competitiveness to construct a framework of a pragmatic model as a solution to research problem and its questions which the main one is about the role of knowledge management and costumer orientation in competitiveness of business organizations. To achieving this goal, it was necessary to make, in priory, a review and discussion to the theoretical dimension of research variables to have a clear vision about constructing hypostatical research model implying a set of hypotheses which, by proving them in companies studied, repr

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 28 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Effect of Using Combined Square Nozzle & winglet with Helical Tape on Thermal Characteristics in Tube Heat Exchanger
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Influence of combined square nozzle with helical tape inserted in a constant heat flux tube on heat transfer enhancement for turbulent airflow for Reynolds number ranging from 7000 to 14500 were investigated experimentally. Three different pitch ratios for square nozzle (PR = 5.8, 7.7 and 11.6) according to three different numbers of square nozzle (N = 3, 4 and 5) and constant pitch ratios for helical tape were used. The results observed that the Nusselt number and friction factor for combination with winglets were found to be up to 33.8 % and 21.4 %, respectively higher than nozzle alone for pitch ratio PR=5.8. The maximum value of thermal performance for using combination with winglets was about 1.351 for pitch ratio= 5.8. Nusselt numb

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics of Environment in Contemporary Iraqi and Iranian Pottery A Comparative Study (Saad Shakir- Muhammad Mahdi) A Model: قحطان عدنان محمود
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The Iraqi and Iranian pottery has a significant role in the contemporary world pottery space, despite the fact that influences created those formulation, thus the researcher supposes that there is a relation between the potter and his environment within Iraq's environment and Iran's environment, which are similar at times and different at other times. The researcher, hence, found himself in front of a number of questions:
1- How much was the Iraqi potter inspired by the environment compared to the Iranian potter?
2- Has the Iraqi and Iranian pottery been really inspired by the environment items or there were modified metaphors?
The current research aims at (identifying the influential environmental characteristics in the Iraq

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the effect of foreign debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco for the period 1990-2017 using the ARDL Test
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The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the m

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
رسالة رسالة في طبقات القراء لتاج الدين أحمد عبد القادر بن مكتوم القيسي (ت 749هـ) دراسة وتحقيق
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 The writer of this messagewas Tajaddin Ahmad Abdulqader bin Maktoom Al-Qaisy Al-masry.

This message dealt with the biographies of twenty scientists of readers about Quran readings in Cairo . He comprehended these biographies and make it an appendage

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Psychological Capital: Behavioral Insight for Study of Spirituality at the Workplace
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Abstract

      This research aims to identify the role of Psychological Capital (PsyCap) in the Spirituality at the Workplace (SAW) for a sample of the teaching staff of the four Colleges of the University of Kufa reached (200) out of (470) teaching, and to achieve the objective of this research and through access to research and studies of foreign adopted researchers standards scales of research variables, since it relied on the model (Luthans, Youssef, et al., 2007) to represent the components of Psychological Capital (self-efficacy, and hope, and optimism, and resilience), and given the attention organizations in the human element because of it

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Computerized Interactive Program in Developing Mathematical Skills among First Cycle Students in Basic Education Schools in the Sultanate of Oman
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The current research aims to identify the effectiveness of a computerized program in developing mathematical skills among the first cycle students in basic education schools in the Sultanate of Oman. The two researchers used the quasi-experimental approach on an intentional sample consisting of (40) male and female students at Al Kawakeb School for Basic Education (1-4). Two of the basic fourth-grade classes and then randomly distributing them into two groups, one is experimental (20) male and female students who followed the computerized interactive program, and the other is (20) male and female students followed the traditional way. On the other hand, its reliability has reached (0.81), and the results of the research have concluded th

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