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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu May 28 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
EMPLOYING TWITTER IN THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN 2016: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE DONALD TRUMP’S TWEETS AS A “MODEL”: (A Research Drawn from a Master’s Thesis) (An Analytical Study)
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This study aimed to identify the employment of the social networking platform «Twitter» in the 2016 presidential campaign led by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump; and analyse his tweets through his personal account on «Twitter»  for the period from: 10/ 8/2016 to: 11/ 8/2016 which represents the last month of the election campaign.

The study belongs to the type of descriptive studies using the analytical method through an analysis index that includes sub-categories and other secondary categories. The research has adopted the ordinary unit of information material (tweet) as an analysis unit for this purpose.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Performance Appraisal and its impact on behavioral and Attitudinal work outcomes Analytical research of the views of a sample of teaching staff at Colleges of the University of Fallujah
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The current research aims to know the extent of the impact of performance evaluation in its dimensions as an explanatory variable in the behavioural and attitudinal work outputs with its dimensions as a response variable in order to reach appropriate solutions through which the University of Fallujah seeks to achieve its goal in the process of diagnosing the axes of strength and to benefit from them in the process of strengthening the status and sobriety of the academic position of the professor and the researcher relied on The descriptive and analytical approach in carrying out this study, and data was collected from university professors, including leaders, heads of departments and divisions, who numbered (97) teachers. And fie

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الثروة الثروة المائية في المغرب العربي من القرن 4 – 7 هـ/ 10 م – 13 م دراسة تاريخية
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Water resources would be differentiate in Morocco specially in Morocco  which appear as form of eyes ,rivers as dissolved water of mountain.

The human takes care of water either as rains to store and use in necessity trying to bring it to Maracas  by  helping from state

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Educational -Learning Design in the Achievement and Motivation of Students in the High School towards Art Education: كنعان غضبان حبيب
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  The present study aimed at ((building an educational -learning design based on the theory of Merrill in (CDT) and measuring the effectiveness of this design in the motivation and achievement of the high school fifth grade students to art education in the subject of the history of modern art)). The research community is made of fifth grade preparatory students in the secondary school of Umm Ayman in the Directorate of Education of Baghdad / Ar-Rusafa in a simple random way. The study sample (58 students) was chosen from section (e) to study according to Merrill theory (CDT) and section (d) to study according to the traditional way.
The pilot design of the control and experimental equivalent groups that have partial control in t

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 15 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
رؤساء رؤساء النصارى في كتاب أخبار بطاركة كرسي المشرق (132- 542هـ/ 749- 1147م) دراسة تاريخية (القسم الثاني)
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The research deals with the Presidents of the Christians who called themselves (Ghaltka) in the book titled (orient chirsy patriarchs) that talked about their scientific practical biography adding to) that their completeness on the position of Ghaltka with its decrees and caliphs who were contemporaries to them ,as well as their places, deaths, cemeteries and their accomplishments In accordance with the powers granted to them and also it mentions the situation of The Abbasid caliphate with them and with the sons of their sect .

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Green Regulatory Tapes and Their Reflections on the Job Development - A Study for the Sample of Employees in the Nineveh Directorate for Bridges & Roads
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The performance of job effectively requires narrowing the meaningful routine activities and attempting employing the job procedures in favor of public welfare through adding the green impact as well as removing them from the red tapes which reflect the firmness of procedures, to enable the job parties to make their job independently, and pushing them to gain priority in the competition layer. This is not attaining easily amidst the regulatory problems expressed by the complication of procedures, the thing which make identifying the problem of the study through the following question:

Should we make the complex of procedures and their firmness a way to adopt the idea of the green regulatory tapes supportin

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of instructional design according to whole brain theory of Herman in the achievement of chemistry of the fifth scientific students
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The research aimed to identify the effectiveness of instructional design according to whole brain theory of Herman in the achievement of chemistry at the fifth scientific students at a secondary school of the General Directorate for Educational in Diyala / Baladruz in Iraq. The research sample Consisted of (57 student, (29) students as experimental group studied according to instructional design strategies for whole brain theory of Herrmann and (28) a student as a control group studied by the usual way for two semesters, a prepared achievement test as article and objective type of multiple choice, the coefficient stability of alpha-Cronbach equation reached (0.86). The research Results showed the presence of a statistically significant d

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Academic Accreditation From The point Of view The Teaching Staff Of Iraqi Expatriates And Its Impact On Strategic Performance Of Institutions Of Higher Education - Field Research
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Abstract

       The Research Includes Two Variables : First , Academic Accreditation with his dimensions ( Educational Context , Educational Inputs , Educational Process , Educational Outputs , Feedback ) , And The Second : Strategic Performance With His dimensions ( Financing , Satisfaction Stakeholders , Internal Processes , Learning And Growth ) , The Research Highlights On The Academic Accreditation System Which Is Considered A Major And Important Systems Can Through Which Administration Of Activities And Programs Institutions Of Higher Education , As This research aims to determine his relationship And The Extent Of Its Effect In The Strategic Performance , And It Includes The Research C

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
 المسائل المتعلقة بالأسماء الثابتة لله (عزوجل) الواردة في (مرعاة المفاتيح شرح مشكاة المصابيح، لأبي الحسن المباركفوري (ت1414هـ).
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The research deals with the issues related to the fixed names of God U, which are from a set of issues mentioned in the Book of Observations of the Keys Explaining the Mishkat al-Masbah by Abu Al-Hasan Al-Mubarakfory (d. 141 AH). It included five demands: the first of them is in proving and identifying the most beautiful names and divisions of God, and the second in the name, name and name. And the third: It was in their number, while the fourth: in deriving the names, is it suspensive or not? And Fifth: The Compilation of Allah’s Most Beautiful Names.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم التربوية والنفسية
معوقات تدريس المواد التربوية والنفسية في كلية التربية – ابن الهيثم من وجهة نظر أعضاء هيئة التدريس فيها
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