تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The principle of rights and duties is part of the reform project of the Commander of the Faithful Ali ibn Abi Talib, to build a state of institutions whose foundations have been built on Quranic rules, a prophetic biography, and his diligence in doing so in accordance with the requirements of interests and evil, and his certainty in determining the most important and important, and research analytical study of speeches Imam Ali and his career, in this study (the principle of rights and duties) of the ruler and the parish because of their role in the reform process, which depends on the demolition and construction together, as it is the responsibility of the ruler to demolish all constructed corrupt and contrary to the principles of Islam
... Show MoreThis study aimed to identify the role of school administration in achieving educational and learning goals from the point of view of educational supervisors in the stage of basic education. The descriptive method was adopted. As for the sample size, it has reached (59) educational supervisors. A questionnaire consisting of 29 paragraphs divided into four areas was used. The data were statistically analyzed on the Chi-square test, the percentage, and the mono-variance analysis. The result showed that the school administration contributes to achieving educational goals. It also works to solve problems in democratic ways, and in modern methods, there are differences in the criteria for choosing the headmaster. The study recommended that sch
... Show MoreThis paper reports a numerical study of flow behaviors and natural convection heat transfer characteristics in an inclined open-ended square cavity filled with air. The cavity is formed by adiabatic top and bottom walls and partially heated vertical wall facing the opening. Governing equations in vorticity-stream function form are discretized via finite-difference method and are solved numerically by iterative successive under relaxation (SUR) technique. A computer program to solve mathematical model has been developed and written as a code for MATLAB software. Results in the form of streamlines, isotherms, and average Nusselt number, are obtained for a wide range of Rayleigh numbers 103-106 with Prandtl number 0.71
... Show MoreReceive money laundering phenomenon of interest to researchers and scholars on different intellectual orientation of economic or political or other, as this process is gaining paramount importance in light of business and increase the number of banks in the province of Kurdistan of Iraq and Erbil in particular and in the presence of openness developments chaotic economic and there are no factors encourage money laundering operation because of the presence of the hidden economy and the weakness of the banking and legal measures to combat them, and on this basis there is a need to examine money laundering operation in the province of Arbil, to indicate the presence or absence of a money laundering operation in working in the provin
... Show More The research addresses the most important elements of the ancient Iraqi heritage represented by architecture and plastic arts being the direct means that preserved the heritage due to the ease of preserving them and the speed of circulating them and diversity of their topics. Through the features of these elements, the research problem has been defined in the form of questions including: what are the most important elements of the ancient Iraqi heritage? What are the plastic arts? What are the most important topics adopted? What is the concept of palm in the ancient Iraqi heritage? What is the evidence for that?
Has it been employed in the Iraqi contemporary art? What is the evidence for that? How to employ it in the arts and t
This research has presented a solution to the problem faced by alloys: the corrosion problem, by reducing corrosion and enhancing protection by using an inhibitor (Schiff base). The inhibitor (Schiff base) was synthesized by reacting of the substrates materials (4-dimethylaminobenzaldehyde and 4-aminoantipyrine). It was diagnosed by infrared technology IR, where the IR spectrum and through the visible beams proved that the Schiff base was well formed and with high purity. The corrosion behavior of carbon steel and stainless steel in a saline medium (artificial seawater 3.5%NaCl) before and after using the inhibitor at four temperatures: 20, 30, 40, and 50 C° was studied by using three electrodes potentiostat. The corrosion behavior was
... Show MoreEdward Albee, as a playwright, indicates that art should be useful and have a message. Therefore, his work foregrounds and critically examines issues concerning the Neurosis of Blackness and psychological trauma. Albee uses cruelty of racism in reflecting psychological trauma and emotional abuse of American black identity in his plays. Race, social inequality, and gender still sustain to engender controversy audience consciously. Racial discrimination is one of the major issues that affect the American Society. Albee challenges and exposes the presumptive dreams of equality of American society and institutional racism. Therefore, one of the main problems of the twentieth century in America is skin color. It
... Show MoreVarious visual media are becoming an increasingly important and active instrument of communication. This fact has led some political parties and leading personalities in Iraq to make use of them as an accepted forum for the discussion of public affairs usually in a manner that conforms to their declared policy. They have to draw as much popular support as they could for the causes which they fight for. As a result, a state of great confusion has been created from the contradictory statements made by the contending parties and gave left grave consequences on all types of the audience receiving them. The problem of the study can be summarized in one major question: What is the opinions of the audience as regards the statements made by the
... Show MoreHospitals are part of the service organizations and most importantly at the level of individuals because they are tied to the people health and their daily lives , the nursing service is one of the important services provided by hospitals, and nurses are the human resource that offers this service, from this standpoint the idea of research came to prepare work Scheduling for nurses in a scientific way to improve performance operational for their services and provide efficient service available 24 hours a day, the research use one of the modern and scientific rules of scheduling its “schedule of
... Show More