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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 28 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Public Relations Strategies in Building the State’s Reputation An analytical study of the publications of the website of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation
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The aim of this paper is to know the persuasive methods and public relations strategies in building the reputation of the United Arab Emirates, since the UAE is progressing among the international indicators in good reputation. The researcher used the survey method, using the content analysis tool, to analyze the publications of the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation for the period from 10/1/2021 to 12/31/2021.The researcher reached a set of results, the most important of which are: The UAE Foreign Ministry relied on public relations strategies in order to build a good reputation for the country, as it focused on the media strategy and gave little importance to the consensus-building strategy, as well as focuse

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Degree of Practicing the Professional Leadership of the Faculties’ Deans, Their Deputies and Heads of the Scientific Divisions in Al-Qaseem University
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Abstract

The study aims to find out the degree of practicing professional leadership of the faculty’s deans, deputies, and heads of the scientific divisions at Al-Qaseem University. The study has adopted the descriptive analytical method. To achieve the objective of the study, the researcher developed a questionnaire consisting of (45) items distributed to six fields that were applied to a sample of (116) faculty deans, deputies, and the head of division at Al-Qaseem University. The results showed there is a high practicing degree of the study sample individuals of the professional leadership on the questionnaire’s fields as a whole, strategic thinking field came at the first rank, while the innovation, creat

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflections informational monitoring in Creative marketing systems
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Abstract:                                                                                                      

         The research aims to measure the impact of infor

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect of applying the CAMEL model to profitability of banks )An applied study on a number of Iraqi banks for the period 2010-2016(
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The evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Using Rational Judgment Strategy in Teaching Science on the Developing of Scientific Thinking at the Male Students of Intermediate Second Grade
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The study aimed to explore the effectiveness of using rational judgment strategy in teaching science to develop scientific thinking for second-grade students. The researcher utilized the quasi-experimental approach based on (the pre/post designing) of two groups: experimental and control. As for tools: a test of scientific thinking prepared by the researcher that proved its verification of their validity and reliability. The test applied on a random sample of (66) students, divided into two groups: (34) experimental, and (32) control. The results showed that the experimental group outperformed the control group in the post-application of the scientific thinking test, In each skill separately, and in the total skills. The study recommende

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 04 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
المدراس الثانوية في الاعظمية ( ثانوية كلية بغداد- ثانوية الأعظمية للبنين – ثانوية الأعظمية للبنات - ثانوية الحريري للبنات) أنموذجاً
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Education received the attention of the monarchy in Iraq, especially after the developments that the country witnessed after Iraq gained independence and joined the League of Nations in 1932 AD in all political, economic and cultural aspects.  In this regard, due to its distinguished geographical location, where the atmosphere, the natural environment and the religious and political standing were available, which made it a center of attraction for most Iraqi families and political figures.  Learning and pioneering the path of knowledge, so it witnessed a great prosperity in secondary education, so several important schools appeared that contributed to advancing the wheel of learning forward, including Baghdad College High Schoo

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Effect of Acetic Acid on Electrochemical Behavior of Sealed AA2319-T3 Al-Alloys Anodized in Phosphoric Acid Electrolytes
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Abstract

      The present study investigates the effect of acetic acid on corrosion behavior and its potential of hydrothermally sealed anodized AA2319-Al-alloys. Anodizing treatment was performed in stagnant phosphoric acid electrolyte with or without addition of acetic acid. Hydrothermal sealing was carried out in boiling water for each anodized specimen. The open circuit potential of the unsealed and sealed anodized samples was examined using open circuit potential measurement for the purpose of starting in scanning polarization diagrams. The potentiostatic polarization technique measurements were performed to assess corrosion behavior and sealing quality (i.e., degree of sealing) of

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education (20736452)
تأثير التدريبات التكتيكية على اللعب السريع حسب التحمل اللاهوائي في تطور السرعة لدى لاعبي كرة القدم الشباب.
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Premiums and compensations and their impact on the financial solvency of insurance companies: applied research in the Iraqi General Insurance Company
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The collected premiums and the compensations paid are among the main variables that have a prominent role in determining the level of financial solvency of insurance companies, as the higher the financial solvency of the insurance company, the more attractive it is to the target audience to acquire the company's insurance services.

Hence the importance of the issue of the solvency of insurance companies, as it is one of the critical matters on which the effectiveness of the insurance company and its continuation in the labor market depend.

In this research, we try to clarify the role of collected premiums and compensations paid in determining the level of operational solvency of t

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building discriminant function for repeated measurements data under compound symmetry (CS) covariance structure and applied in the health field
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Discriminant analysis is a technique used to distinguish and classification an individual to a group among a number of  groups based on a linear combination of a set of relevant variables know discriminant function. In this research  discriminant analysis used to analysis data from repeated measurements design. We  will  deal  with the problem of  discrimination  and  classification in the case of  two  groups by assuming the Compound Symmetry covariance structure  under  the  assumption  of  normality for  univariate  repeated measures data.

 

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