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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of The economic And External Factors In Selecting Aggregate Planning Alternatives For Workforce Case Study In Yarmouk Teaching Hospital
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The research aimed to achieve many objectives represented in two variables, which are the impacted factors and the aggregate planning alternatives of workforce in Educational Al- yarmouk Hospital , This research started from a problem focused on finding solutions to the demand’s  fluctuation  or the energy limitation while the study importance is emerged from diagnosis the suitable strategy and adopt the suitable alternatives due to their importance in meeting the demand for the health service submitted by the hospital .This study  based on choosing assumptions of connection relationship and the impact among the mentioned variables in the(surgery and internal diseases) departments. The research is dependent on ch

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Calculate the Average Run Length (ARL) to Detect the Deviation in the Process A case Study in an Industrial Organization
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Statistical control charts are widely used in industry for process and measurement control . in this paper we study the use of markov chain approach in calculating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart for defect the shifts in the mean of process , and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for defect the shifts for process mean and , the standard deviation . Also ,we used the EWMA charts based on the logarithm of the sample variance for monitoring a process standard deviation when the observations (products are selected from al_mamun factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from normal distribution in continuous manufacturing .

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
الأنماط والتكتيكات المرنة في تحسين الأداء الاستراتيجي: دراسة حالة لعمليات الشراء في شركة أبجاكو abjaco للمقاولات في قطر
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Potential Benefits of Ethanol extract of Anredera cordifolia for Antiobesity of High Fat diet-Induced Obesity in White Male Rat Wistar
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Obesity-related deaths continue to rise, and thus losing weight in overweight and obese patients is critical to prevent complications. Anredera cordifolia (Ten,) Steenis, species of succulent plant of the genus Basellaceae, is widely used in herbal medicine to decrease body weight. This study evaluated the potential benefits of Anredera cordifolia ethanol extract to reduce body weight in high-fat diet-induced obesity rat model. This was an experimental with post-test only control group design study involving 36 obese rats. They were divided into two groups: three control groups (K1, K2, K3) and three treatment groups (P1, P2, P3). All the groups were induced with high-fat diet, except K1 control group that received a standard di

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The hadiths of Abdullah bin Amr bin Al-Aas، may God be pleased with them، that there is no room for diligence in them ((collecting and studying))
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Research Summary


The research revolves around the collection of pending hadiths on Abdullah bin Amr bin Al-Aas, may God be pleased with them, and it is required in these hadiths that they be among those in which there is no room for diligence, such as telling about unseen matters, signs of the Hour, or a statement of virtue and reward for obedience, or punishment for disobedience.

The research consists of an introduction, two topics, and a conclusion of the first topic in the translation of Abdullah bin Amr bin Al-Aas, and the second topic, the pending hadiths of Abdullah bin Amr bin Al-Aas, may God be pleased with them, in which there is no room for diligence in collecting and studying

At the end of this rese

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Diagnosis of the reality of the gap for the requirements of Business Continuity Management System According to International Standard (ISO 22301: 2012) in Midland Refineries Company (Daura Refinery)
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Abstract:

The current research included " Diagnosis of the reality of the gap for the requirements of Business Continuity Management System According to International Standard (ISO 22301: 2012) in Midland Refineries Company (Daura Refinery) " , for development of an administrative system for Business Continuity is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication with others . the international legitimacy (represented by the international organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment , and the importance of the application of Business Continuity Management Syst

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Diagnosing the reality of applying the operating requirement according to the international specification for the business continuity management system (ISO 22301:2019) : applied research in the General Tax Authority
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Abstract

                 The research aims to diagnose the reality of applying the eighth requirement (operation) of the business continuity management system according to the international standard (ISO 22301: 2019), in the General Tax Authority, which is related to planning, implementing and controlling specific processes and procedures to address risks and opportunities, and the research adopted the checklist of the standard ( ISO 22301: 2019), in obtaining information, to measure the extent of application and documentation, the percentages and the weighted arithmetic mean were relied upon, and the research reached a set of result

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
تداعيات الأزمة المالية على أداء الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر: دراسة حالة : تونس – الجزائر
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تهدف الدراسة إلى معالجة مشكلة تداعيات الأزمة المالية العالمية على أداء الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر لكل من تونس والجزائر، ومن خلال ما يفرضه النظام العالمي المعولم فانه من المؤكد أن الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة لدول الدراسة ستتأثر سلبا بهذه الأزمة لكن بدراجات متفاوتة نظرا لخصوصية كل اقتصاد ودرجة ارتباطه بالاقتصاد العالمي . وقد خلصت الدراسة إلى أن الأزمة المالية العالمية غيرت خارطة توزيع الاستثمارات الأجنب

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2007
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
السياسة الخارجية الاسرائيلية تجاه افريقيا بعد انتهاء الحرب الباردة (دراسة حالة اثيوبيا)
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السياسة الخارجية الاسرائيلية تجاه افريقيا بعد انتهاء الحرب الباردة (دراسة حالة اثيوبيا)

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Noor's Curve, a New Geometric Form of Agnesi Witch, a Construction Method is Produced
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In this paper, a new form of 2D-plane curves is produced and graphically studied. The name of my daughter "Noor" has been given to this curve; therefore, Noor term describes this curve whenever it is used in this paper. This curve is a form of these opened curves as it extends in the infinity along both sides from the origin point. The curve is designed by a circle/ ellipse which are drawing curvatures that tangent at the origin point, where its circumference is passed through the (0,2a). By sharing two vertical lined points of both the circle diameter and the major axis of the ellipse, the parametric equation is derived. In this paper, a set of various cases of Noor curve are graphically studied by two curvature cases;

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