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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Calculate the Average Run Length (ARL) to Detect the Deviation in the Process A case Study in an Industrial Organization
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Statistical control charts are widely used in industry for process and measurement control . in this paper we study the use of markov chain approach in calculating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart for defect the shifts in the mean of process , and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for defect the shifts for process mean and , the standard deviation . Also ,we used the EWMA charts based on the logarithm of the sample variance for monitoring a process standard deviation when the observations (products are selected from al_mamun factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from normal distribution in continuous manufacturing .

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determination of the lot size using the Wagner-Whitin algorithm under the Constraint Theory / Case Study of Diyala Public Company
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         International companies are striving to reduce their costs and increase their profits, and these trends have produced many methods and techniques to achieve these goals. these methods is heuristic and the other Optimization.. The research includes an attempt to adapt some of these techniques in the Iraqi companies, and these techniques are to determine the optimal lot size using the algorithms Wagner-Whitin under the theory of constraints. The research adopted the case study methodology to objectively identify the problem of research, namely determining lot size optimal for each of the products of electronic measurement laboratory in Diyala and in light of the bottlenecks in w

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of The economic And External Factors In Selecting Aggregate Planning Alternatives For Workforce Case Study In Yarmouk Teaching Hospital
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The research aimed to achieve many objectives represented in two variables, which are the impacted factors and the aggregate planning alternatives of workforce in Educational Al- yarmouk Hospital , This research started from a problem focused on finding solutions to the demand’s  fluctuation  or the energy limitation while the study importance is emerged from diagnosis the suitable strategy and adopt the suitable alternatives due to their importance in meeting the demand for the health service submitted by the hospital .This study  based on choosing assumptions of connection relationship and the impact among the mentioned variables in the(surgery and internal diseases) departments. The research is dependent on ch

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect Of Using Quantitative Methods Of Demand Forecasting In Improving Of Supply Chain Performance:" Case Study In One Of An Industerial Organization"
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Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
الأنماط والتكتيكات المرنة في تحسين الأداء الاستراتيجي: دراسة حالة لعمليات الشراء في شركة أبجاكو abjaco للمقاولات في قطر
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 25 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY ROSE BEETLE MALADERA INSANABILIS (BRENSKE) ON FRUIT AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS AND ITS CONTROL BY PATHOGENIC FUNGI: ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY ROSE BEETLE MALADERA INSANABILIS (BRENSKE) ON FRUIT AND ORNAMENTAL PLANTS AND ITS CONTROL BY PATHOGENIC FUNGI
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The study aimed to evaluate injuries and economic losses which caused by rose beetle Maladerainsanabilis (Brenske) on ornamental and fruit plants as introduced insect in Iraq during 2015 and determine infested host plants in addition to evaluate efficacy of pathogenic fungi Metarhiziumanisopiliae (1x10⁹ spore/ ml) and Beauvariabassiana (1x10⁸spore/ ml) in mortality of insect larvae in laboratory and field.The results showed that the insect was polyphagous infested many host plants (20 host plant)Which caused degradation and dead the plants through adult feeding on leaves and flower but large injury caused by larvae feeding on root plants which caused obligate dead to infested plant, the percentage mortality of rose plants 68.6%, pear

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Challenges Faced by Families of Children with Intellectual Disabilities and Its Effect on the Psychological Health in the Asir
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Abstract

This research aims to identify the challenges faced by families of children with intellectual disabilities and to identify the impact of the challenges facing them on the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities. Based on the following questions: What is the nature of the challenges faced by families of children with disabilities and how do these challenges affect the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities? The study was conducted on a sample of four families of six children with intellectual disabilities, depending on the degree and type of disability. To achieve the study's objectives, the qualitative approach was used, Because of the importance of accessin

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization and Prediction of Process Parameters in SPIF that Affecting on Surface Quality Using Simulated Annealing Algorithm
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Incremental sheet metal forming is a modern technique of sheet metal forming in which a uniform sheet is locally deformed during the progressive action of a forming tool. The tool movement is governed by a CNC milling machine. The tool locally deforms by this way the sheet with pure deformation stretching. In SPIF process, the research is concentrate on the development of predict models for estimate the product quality. Using simulated annealing algorithm (SAA), Surface quality in SPIF has been modeled. In the development of this predictive model, spindle speed, feed rate and step depth have been considered as model parameters. Maximum peak height (Rz) and Arithmetic mean surface roughness (Ra) are used as response parameter to assess th

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Proposed Hybrid Cryptosystems Based on Modifications of Playfair Cipher and RSA Cryptosystem
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Cipher security is becoming an important step when transmitting important information through networks. The algorithms of cryptography play major roles in providing security and avoiding hacker attacks. In this work two hybrid cryptosystems have been proposed, that combine a modification of the symmetric cryptosystem Playfair cipher called the modified Playfair cipher and two modifications of the asymmetric cryptosystem RSA called the square of RSA technique and the square RSA with Chinese remainder theorem technique. The proposed hybrid cryptosystems have two layers of encryption and decryption. In the first layer the plaintext is encrypted using modified Playfair to get the cipher text, this cipher text will be encrypted using squared

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Water harvesting and sustainable spatial development A case study of the province of badra – zurbatiyah
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The major climate changes that have affected the planet in addition to wave the big drought plaguing the study area, including the lack of water for imports Badra River fatigue because of the Iran constructing dams on this river and make use of the waters for the benefitof its territory. The subject of finding sources of water has become available with the possibility of exploiting them in an exemplary manner is one of the key things in order to be exploited somewhere.
The study area was chosen within the eastern border of the province of Wasit within the district of Badra border, an area of (1557.5 km2) almost "to study the characteristics of hydrological and identify possibilities for water harvesting them. In this study was conduct

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