تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research studies the melodic and rhythmic characteristics of monologue, in addition to how it was transferred from the Arab homeland to Iraq and reviewed its most prominent performers, as well as a review of the monologue types and their propagation in the Arab homeland such as comical, dramatic, and political and guidance monologues.
The methodological framework included: the problem of the research, the importance of the research and the objective of the research which is to uncover the melodic and rhythmic structure of the monologue in Iraq. The limits of the research included the objective limit tackling the art of monologue and the spatial limit which is Baghdad
... Show MoreThe deficit of the federal budget and the structural imbalances suffered by the Iraqi economy has affected the direction of research towards suggesting steps and mechanisms can be relied upon in the near term to form a broader base of non-oil revenues aimed at achieving a balanced budget, and to proceed to reform the financial situation, In reducing their financial dictates, whether capital or operational, which lead to significant financial and economic consequences. This also requires that the Iraqi political elite have the real will, strategic vision and full awareness that the implementation of these reforms has potential social and economic effects, with long-term measures to be taken. The aim is not only to reform the finan
... Show MoreIn a unique way, heritage libraries enrich Iraq's cultural landscape. Iraq has a large number of heritage libraries, which carry a large number of books of Arab-Islamic heritage. The Library of the Center for the Revival of Heritage is one of these .
Centralization and decentralization, planning and development, and community participation in the management of its affairs and to activate all the abilities that multiple methods aimed at creating the proper environment for the growth and development of society in the place where he lives. As long as the overall trend in Iraq, represented by the Permanent Constitution of decentralization to regions and provinces, the solutions to the obstacles that may face this transition in some respects presents ways of coordination and integration between multiple levels of planning which can be exercised by the schematic in the future the organization. In this paper some of the visions and ideas that can contribute to the organization
... Show MoreMany studies and researches represented the importance of the planning and designing criteria's. Planning and Designing issue influence by three factors, firstly: The Present situation of life is always exchanging and developing. Secondly: Design work represents views of problem that never appear at the beginning of the work but only by plan implementation which need to in some cases to modifying the specify aims and criteria's. Thirdly: Never establish criteria's and aims that can be used as a reference before starting design and planning process. This research will study present situation of the services for residential areas criteria's and planning legitimate in some designed cities in Iraq with different levels (neighborhood,
... Show Moreالادراك السياسي للاصلاح الاداري في العراق
This research paper is about thevariationin the degree of Continentality climate of the
Iraq during (40) years for a number of climate station. Using Poresof formula, it is found out
that the climate of Iraq ranges between extreme Continentality and very extreme
Continentality, and that the Continentality degree is characterized with extreme frequency
from one year to another. In certain years, the degree of climate Continentality decreases
while in other years it rises in such a way that there is no similarity in the Continental degree
from one year to another for the same station.
As for the general trend of the degree of Continentality, the last years had noticed
special variations, which are divided in to thre
Incremental sheet metal forming is a modern technique of sheet metal forming in which a uniform sheet is locally deformed during the progressive action of a forming tool. The tool movement is governed by a CNC milling machine. The tool locally deforms by this way the sheet with pure deformation stretching. In SPIF process, the research is concentrate on the development of predict models for estimate the product quality. Using simulated annealing algorithm (SAA), Surface quality in SPIF has been modeled. In the development of this predictive model, spindle speed, feed rate and step depth have been considered as model parameters. Maximum peak height (Rz) and Arithmetic mean surface roughness (Ra) are used as response parameter to assess th
... Show MoreAbstract
This research aims to identify the challenges faced by families of children with intellectual disabilities and to identify the impact of the challenges facing them on the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities. Based on the following questions: What is the nature of the challenges faced by families of children with disabilities and how do these challenges affect the mental health of their children with intellectual disabilities? The study was conducted on a sample of four families of six children with intellectual disabilities, depending on the degree and type of disability. To achieve the study's objectives, the qualitative approach was used, Because of the importance of accessin
... Show More