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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational Agility according to Strategic Planning Directions A case study in the Ministry of Commerce / General Company for the trade of cars and machinery
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This research aims at the possibility of rationalizing business organizations according to the strategic planning directions which have been developed to deal with many problems faced by business organizations, including the General Company for Automobile and Machinery Trade which was chosen as a research society, and several research problems were diagnosed, including an increase in the numbers of employees who constitute hidden unemployment, lack of work in the system of job specialization, and the organizational structure which is the non-application of the company to a modern administrative model. The importance of the research is that the company being investigated is a pioneer in its field of work and seeks to achieve custo

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of administrative supervision scope and the single window to increase the efficiency of investment (Case study: Sudanese Ministry of Investment)
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Investment drives the wheel of the development of different developed and developing countries. Sudan is a model for a developing country facing a lot of difficulties in the field of both local and foreign investment. The present study was focused on the problem of poor diversification and efficiency of both local and foreign investment in Sudan. Also, it clarified the important role of administrative supervision to strengthen the efficiency of investment, taking the experience of the Sudan as a model. The researchers used the well-known descriptive and analytical tools (questionnaire, interview, observation) to complete this study. A well designed questionnaire was used. It included all questions that could cover all aspects of

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 13 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Capital Adequacy Standards According to Basel Accords (1,2) In the Credit Risks: Case Study
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Commercial banks represent the main pivot in financing national economic activity and its development. The capital represents safety margin to depositors and represents a defense line that protects bank work from dangers. Basel committee requirements represent protection and comprehensive supervision to bank activities for depositors, debtors and the bank. It provides trust in bank dealings and tackles activities of high dangers. The most prominent of these requirements are capital adequacy that concerns bank management and supervision and auditing bodies such as the central bank and protecting banks that suffer weakness in its vital important borrowing activity that reflects weakness in implementing borrowing policy .The purpose

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Designing and Application of Mathematical Model A Multi – Objectives for Assessment The Quality Of The Project : A Case Study at Saad Public Construction Company
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Abstract

This research aims to design a multi-objective mathematical model to assess the project quality based on three criteria: time, cost and performance. This model has been applied in one of the major projects formations of the Saad Public Company which enables to completion the project on time at an additional cost that would be within the estimated budget with a satisfactory level of the performance which match with consumer requirements. The problem of research is to ensure that the project is completed with the required quality Is subject to constraints, such as time, cost and performance, so this requires prioritizing multiple goals. The project

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 03 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The pioneering trend in managing health institutions and its impact on improving the quality of services : A case study in some institutions of the Iraqi Ministry of Health
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This study seeks to identify the role that the leadership trend plays in the management of health institutions in Iraq and its impact on improving the quality of the health service provided by analyzing some opinions of affiliates working in the Iraqi health sector where a survey list was used as a main tool for collecting primary data, as it was subjected to this analysis ( 60) of the medical staff, of whom (40) are doctors and (20) are affiliated with the rank of assistant physician, and (60) members of the administrative cadre have undergone their various job ranks and administrative specializations (department manager, auditor, observer, accountant, statistician, secretary). Reliance on statistical software (spss) in data ana

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Use ofBang marking in the management of the cost of food and beverages in the hotel: sector (Case study in a sample of hotels in Baghdad governorate)
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The competition in the hotel sector, globalization and the development of new information have forced the sector to continuously seek new techniques and arrangements to remain competitive through hotel industry companies, including Benchmarking and the application of this method in the hotel sector. The selection of the Rashid International Hotel by the Ministry of Tourism as a leading hotel or benchmark for comparison of other hotels in Iraq, and the selection of two hotels in Baghdad for comparison, namely (Ishtar International Hotel, Baghdad International Hotel) and the choice also by the Ministry of Tourism, N is to correct the course of practice to manage the cost and diagnosis of the weakness of the strengths and weaknesses in the

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Improve operational performance by simulating the Holonic manufacturing system A case study at the rubber product plant in Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf
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The research aims to improve operational performance through the application of the Holonic Manufacturing System (HMS) in the rubber products factory in Najaf. The problem was diagnosed with the weakness of the manufacturing system in the factory to meet customers' demands on time within the available resources of machines and workers, which led to time delays of Processing and delivery, increased costs, and reduced flexibility in the factory, A case study methodology used to identify the reality of the manufacturing system and the actual operational performance in the factory. The simulation was used to represent the proposed (HMS) by using (Excel 2010) based on the actual data and calculate the operational performance measures

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 21 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-turath University College
قياس فجوة تطبيق ابعاد القيادة اليقظة في المنظمات العامة دراسة حالة في وزارة العمل/ دائرة العمل والتدريب المهني
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المستخلص تهدؾ الدراسة الى ل اٌس مدى التطب كٌ والتبن للم اٌدة ال مٌظة ف المنظمات العامة ولد اشتمت مشكلة الدراسة النظر ةٌ من وجود فجوه معرف ةٌ وذلن لملة الدراسات والبحوث الت تناولت متؽ رٌ الدراسة بأبعاده )الرؤ ةٌ المح طٌ ةٌ, التمك نٌ, الشبكات ب نٌ اعضاء الفر قٌ, الترك زٌ, الم لٌ للتعامل مع حالات عدم التأكد( اعتمدت الدراسة منهج دراسة الحالة عن طر كٌ استعمال استمارة الفحص ف المنظمة الت تم اخت اٌرها دائرة العمل والتدر ب

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic Human Resource Development and its Reflecting on Quality Municipality Service Case study In Directorate Of Municipalities in holy Karbala
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ABSTRACT:

The study aims at expounding the correlation and effect between the Human resource development strategy and Quality Municipality Service within a theoretical framework and a practical framework conducted at Directorate Of Municipalities in holy Karbala . The researcher found during a pilot study that there isn’t enough care paid by the Directorate Of Municipalities in developing its human resources using one strategy or a number of strategies and their effect on the Quality Municipality Service. Thus a number of research questions were set concerning the existence of clear perception in the Directorates Of Municipalities concerning the strategies of developing both the human resource an Qualit

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility using of Accounting Information in Rationalizing the Decisions of Capital Expenditure (A case study: Companies Listed in Khartoum Stock Exchange)
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The research aims at the identity of the accounting information and its characteristics, and then to study the possibility of using accounting information in rationalizing the decisions of capital expenditure. The study relied upon the descriptive analytical approach it is suitable to the nature of this study, the hypotheses of the study were tested by using a number of statistical methods by relying on statistical package program (SPSS), and the research concluded that the companies listed in Khartoum Stock Exchange using accounting information in the comparison between investment alternatives available and estimating the number of years required to recover of the investment cost, the challenges that cause weakness in using the

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