تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
في هذا البحث، تم استكشاف تأثير نوع المكاسب على التفاعلات التعاونية الدولية لاسيما في مجال مواجهة التحديات المناخية. إذ تبين أن المكاسب النسبية تلعب دورا حاسما في توجيه سلوك الدول فيما يتعلق بالاتفاقيات البيئية الدولية. ويعكس هذا التحليل دروسا مهمة لصياغة السياسات والجهود الدولية في هذا المجال ذاته. ان الدول عندما تتوقع مكاسب نسبية تفوق الخسائر المتوقعة من التعاون، فإنها تكون أكثر عرضة للالتزام بالاتفاقيات
... Show MoreThe objective of the research is to identify the efficiency of risk management in various names at Baghdad International Airport in the face of various risks (financial - technical - human - natural ..) facing the sample of the search of the General Establishment of Civil Aviation and the Iraqi Airways Company where the researcher identified the hypothesis that summarizes There is a significant significant correlation between risk management, risk management and risk review and assessment. The researcher used the means of research from observation and interviews with the relevant officials in this field, as well as used the questionnaire and distributed a sample of 170 employees in the field of risk management (SMS Department) in Iraqi A
... Show MoreIn this paper , two method which deal with finding the optimal value for adaptive smoothing constant, are compared .This constant is used in adaptive Single Exponential Smoothing (ASES).
The comparing is between a method uses time domain and another uses frequency domain when the data contain outlier value for autoregressive model of order one AR(1) , or Markov Model, when the time series are stationary and non stationary with deferent samples .
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show MoreThe Assurance Services Are Represented By Expressing A Clear And Independent Opinion On All Financial And Non-Financial Information, As It Is Broader Than The Services Related To Auditing Financial Statements And Expressing Opinion (Certification) And Extends Them To A Wider Range, And It Is Possible To Distinguish Between Auditing And Certification Services And Confirming That Audit Services Relate To Expressing Opinion On Financial Statements And Certification Services Related To By Expressing An Opinion On A Wide Range Of Financial Information And More Broadly Than The Financial Statements And Assurance Services That Include Expressing An Opinion On Integrated Financial And Non-Financial Information And From This Standpoint Came The I
... Show MoreAbstract As the United Nations approaches its 70th anniversary, the world is going through the most severe accumulation of serious international security failures in recent memory, challenging the UN Security Council’s ability to address them effectively. Over the past four years, crises in Libya, Syria and Ukraine have precipitated a worrisome erosion of great power relations that has complicated Security Council decision making on a number of trouble spots. Its inability to devise consensus responses to the escalating civil war in Syria has been particularly troubling, resulting in the regional spill over into Iraq and the emergence of Islamic State as a new threat to peace in the region and beyond. Meanwhile, the UN’s often under
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The aim of the research is to introduce the international standards of the Supreme audit Institutions, as well as the role of these standards in achieving administrative reform and improving the performance of the Supreme audit Institutions and the performance of the economic units under its control.
In order to achieve the objectives of the research, a questionnaire was designed from two main axes that included a number of questions addressed to a number of officials and employees of the Supreme Audit Institutions and its affiliated bodies on the role of applying the international standards of the Supreme Audit Institutions in achieving administrative re
... Show MoreAt the local level in the early 1990s first established an Islamic bank 1993 is called Iraqi Islamic bank and was established by Dr. abdullatef hmim and with capital of 200 Million Iraqi dinars .
After 2003 began the attention of Iraqis tend to create Islamic banks until now up to 30 banks in the present , He confirmed Mr. Governor of the Iraqi Central Bank recently that there is more than 40 iintroduction licence to establish an Islamic bank in Iraq , That banking activity which is compatible with Sharia law widely welcomed by savers and those in need for more development and modernization in order to gain a greater share within the Iraqi market , and allowed the Iraqi Central Bank in recent years
... Show Moreمشكلة دارفور من المشاكل الازلية التي تهدد كيان الوحدة السودانية
Most studies and research have tried to shed light on unemployment and employment in general, with less focus on the problems facing working women and the resulting social and economic consequences that threaten their human and professional lives. For women, working is one of the basic necessities for the sustainability of human life, and it constitutes an essential axis for both sexes and through it. It also gives a person the status and social status where the individual finds a ready opportunity to practice his intentions and desires, test his abilities and talents, and achieve his ambitions. The availability of full employment in general and the joining of women to the labor market is an important and fundamental factor in the sustai
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