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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The hadiths that al-Mazy cited in his book "Tuhfat al-Ashraf" from the Imam Ahmad Imam's collection and study
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This research seeks to attempt to reveal the intention of Al-Hafiz Al-Mazi from his market to hadiths from Imam Ahmad’s Musnad in his book “Masterpiece of Supervision in Knowing the Parties”, and researchers know that this book was classified by Al-Mazi to collect the parties to the six books: Sahih Al-Bukhari, Sahih Muslim, Sunan Abi Dawud, Jamea Al-Tirmidhi and Sunan Al-Nasa’i and Sunan Ibn Majah, in addition to some of the books ’authors’ books, and arranging them according to the Musnad, and it is not Musnad Ahmad from his condition, even if it is close to the arrangement of Mazi’s work, as he was a follower of that to the original owner Abu al-Qasim bin Asaker in his book “Supervising Knowledge of the Parties” in M

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The obstacles that encounter a program of rehabilitating released prisoners as perceived by prisoners themselves in tubas' province
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The study intends to explore the obstacles that encounter a program of rehabilitating released prisoners as perceived by prisoners themselves in tubas' province. To this end, the researcher used a questionnaire as an instrument which was applied on (150) prisoner had chosen randomly to collect the study data. The findings revealed no significant differences among obstacles the encounter program regarding to the following variables: age, detention period, and number of detention, additionally, the findings found that there is a variance of obstacles mean according to the prisoners themselves, rehabilitation program, and the facility of that program.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Crisis management according to the strategic leadership - the interactive role of decision support systems. (An exploratory study at the Ministry of Industry and Minerals / the State Company for Steel Industries)
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The researcher aims to Diagnose the reality of research variables, strategic leadership and decision support systems, and their impact on crisis management in the General Company for Steel Industries because of their important role in preventing crises and reducing their occurrence for the research company in particular and other companies in general affiliated with the Ministry of Industry and Minerals, as well as clarifying theoretical concepts of research variables As it included the answer to questions related to the research problem, including (Is there an impact of the strategic leadership in managing crises if decision support systems are used), and the researcher adopted the descriptive and analytical approach in its comp

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Reflection of the application of the IFRSs on financial ratios and performance indicators
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The research aims to delve into the nature of international financial reporting standards and the unified accounting system adopted in the Iraqi environment and financial ratios in the theoretical side. In the practical aspect, the results of some financial ratios of Basrah Gas Company were compared with the adoption of the financial statements prepared on the basis of the consolidated accounting system with the prepared financial statements Based on the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The research has reached a number of conclusions, including a difference in the accounting rules and practices between IFRS and the consolidated accounting system in force in Iraq. The adoption of IFRS has led to a decrease in profitabi

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Causes of maternal death in Mizan Aman and Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals from 2011 – 2015: A case - control study using propensity score matching analysis
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Objective: To identify causes of maternal death in Mizan Aman and Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals
Methodology: A case control study on 595 charts, 119 cases and 476 controls was conducted in Mizan
Aman & Gebretsadik shawo general hospitals. Data was analyzed by STATA 13.1. Propensity score
matching analysis was used to see causes of maternal death.
Results: Hemorrhage were the main direct causes of maternal death which accounts 47.9% (β =0.58
(95% CI (0.28,0.87)) in hospital but when projected to population based the sample (β =0.26 (95% CI
(0.22,0.31)). Followed by infection 36 (25.21%) (β = 0.50 (95% CI (0.08, 0.92)). when projected to
population based the sample PIH 7.6%) is significant cause (β = 0.16

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of the repurchase policy in stock tradingIn financial markets - case study
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The research dealt with the case stock repurchase policy of Emaar Real Estate Company one of listed companies in Dubai Stock exchange. The research has launched from the cognitive dimensions of repurchasing policy which took great concern in the literatures of financial management, and also this policy became as substitute for distributing the monitory profit in the last three decades in the international financial markets, but it did not get any importance in the Arab Markets such as that of the Arab Gulf in addition to the Iraqi Stock Exchange.

The research summarized a set of conclusions, the most important one was the consistence of analysis result with the test of the major two hypotheses (The first

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring The Level of Complexity In The Process University – Case Study At The Southern Technical University.
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    Complexity is the inherent characteristic of contemporary organizations. It is characterized by the intertwining and expansion of its relations, by the severe disorder and rapid change in its environment, which makes it suffer from a state of uncertainty in determining the direction of its future or the assessment of the rules governing its paths. All organizations tend to evolve with increasing sophistication, And to take measures that contribute to the simplification of the system as it moves towards complexity, allowing the administration to easily control its movement and directions, and the problem of complexity in the university is based on the entanglement and overlap in the goals and processes betwe

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Local Dependence for Bivariate Weibull Distributions Created by Archimedean Copula
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In multivariate survival analysis, estimating the multivariate distribution functions and then measuring the association between survival times are of great interest. Copula functions, such as Archimedean Copulas, are commonly used to estimate the unknown bivariate distributions based on known marginal functions. In this paper the feasibility of using the idea of local dependence to identify the most efficient copula model, which is used to construct a bivariate Weibull distribution for bivariate Survival times, among some Archimedean copulas is explored. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed procedure, a simulation study is implemented. It is shown that this approach is useful for practical situations and applicable fo

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات التي يعاني منها تدريسيي جامعة بغداد من وجهة نظرهم وسبل حلها
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The research endeavored to single out the problems, difficulties and obstacles faced by the members of the staff of Baghdad University. The importance of research, then, depends upon the importance of the university lecturers and their vital role in developing the society.  The goals of the research are summarized in knowing the main problems facing those university lectures and relative weight  of these problems in addition to identifying the differences in their opinions to these problems according to the specializations variables (scientific, humanistic), the gender (males, females) and the Scientific grade (professor, assistant professor, lecturer, assistant lecturer.

The research is limited

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
مجلة جامعة الانبار للعلوم الاقتصادية والادارية
Estimation impact of internal public debt on the monetary basis in the Iraqi economy for the period (2006-2015 )
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The public debt is the difference between the classical economic schools and the classical Keynesian schools and each public debt looks at a different perspective in terms of the impact of public debt on the economic and social balance, and the effects of internal public debt on external public debt on the general economy in terms of transfer of economic surplus between the sons of one generation or Between the state and another state, and internal public debt of the economic variables affecting the movement of the cash market through the impact of internal public debt on interest rates and cash reserves that constitute the basis of cash, so the study focused on studying the impact of public debt on The monetary basis is due to the

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