تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
ABSTRACT
Learning vocabulary is a challenging task for female English as a foreign language (EFL) students. Thus, improving students’ knowledge of vocabulary is critical if they are to make progress in learning a new language. The current study aimed at exploring the vocabulary learning strategies used by EFL students at Northern Border University (NBU). It also aimed to identify the mechanisms applied by EFL students at NBU University to learn vocabulary. It also aimed at evaluating the approaches adopted by EFL female students at Northern Border University (NBU) to learn a language. The study adopted the descriptive-analytical method. Two research instruments were developed to collect data namely, a survey qu
... Show MoreMany undergraduate learners at English departments who study English as a foreign language are unable to speak and use language correctly in their post -graduate careers. This problem can be attributed to certain difficulties, which they faced throughout their education years that hinder their endeavors to learn. Therefore, this study aims to discover the main difficulties faced by EFL students in language learning and test the difficulty variable according to gender and college variables then find suitable solutions for enhancing learning. A questionnaire with 15 items and 5 scales were used to help in discovering the difficulties. The questionnaire was distributed to the selected sample of study wh
... Show MoreThis study investigated the outcome of Alstonia boonei stem bark on liver enzymes after inducing the Wistar albino rats with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4). This effect of plant extract was compared with silymarin – a drug commonly used for the treatment of chronic hepatocyte disorder. The plant sample was extracted with ethanol; acute toxicity study of the extract was performed on eighteen Wistar mice, while 30 rats were sacrificed for liver enzymes assay. The rats were divided into six clusters: each cluster has five rats, culster 1 served as control and was given 2 mL/kg b.w - distilled water; clusters 2 – 6 were CCl4 induced. Cluster 2 was untreated but served as the negative control while cluster 3 wa
... Show MoreThe prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff
... Show MoreThe research aims to present a proposed strategy for the North Oil Company, and the proposed strategy took into account the surrounding environmental conditions and adopted in its formulation on the basis and scientific steps that are comprehensive and realistic, as it covered the main activities of the company (production and exploration activities, refining and refining activities, export and transport of oil, research and development activity, financial activity, information technology, human resources) and the (David) model has been adopted in the environmental analysis of the factors that have been diagnosed according to a
... Show MoreThe study was conducted to estimate the economic losses caused by insect mole cricket Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa on some agricultural crops and Potato tubers in collage of Agriculture- Abu Ghraib season 2012-2013. Study showed Mole cricket caused percentage of infestation in spring potato tubers variety Luciana reached to 11.61% and the percentage of loss in weight of tubers reached 18.88%. The study showed that addition of animal manure (organic fertilizer) to the soil when planting potatoes in the autumn increased the incidence of infestation and the number of tunnels caused by mole cricket which led to from increased economic losses. When matured potato tubers were left for a longer period in the soil percentage of infestation by mole cr
... Show Moreقبل ثلاثين سنة كانت المصارف الاسلامية مجرد أمنية، الا ان اعمالا بحثية جادة أجريت خلال العقود الثلاثة السابقة أظهرت أن المصارف الاسلامية قابلة للتنفيذ وتمثل طريقا ذا جدوى في الوساطة المالية، وضرورة من ضرورات العصر الحديث لا تستطيع أن تستغني عن خدماتها أمة من الامم أو قطاع من القطاعات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والثقافية.
لذلك تم انشاء عدد من المصارف الاسلامية خلال هذه المدة في ظل وسط اقتصادي
... Show MoreIn the present paper, by making use of the new generalized operator, some results of third order differential subordination and differential superordination consequence for analytic functions are obtained. Also, some sandwich-type theorems are presented.
Some maps of the chaotic firefly algorithm were selected to select variables for data on blood diseases and blood vessels obtained from Nasiriyah General Hospital where the data were tested and tracking the distribution of Gamma and it was concluded that a Chebyshevmap method is more efficient than a Sinusoidal map method through mean square error criterion.